Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan Prediction, Picks, Odds for UFC Vegas 122, Saturday, October 10

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Check out my Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan prediction for UFC Vegas 122 on Saturday, October 10, along with my betting preview and breakdown.

Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan Odds

On Saturday, the UFC returns to the Apex for a 12-fight card, featuring an important main event in the middleweight division between No. 5 ranked contender Brendan Allen and No. 10 ranked Christian Leroy Duncan ("CLD").

Allen, the American, enters with a 16-4 UFC record and is on a three-fight winning streak, including a fourth-round stoppage of former two-division ONE FC champion Reinier de Ridder. Saturday's bout will mark his third UFC fight and his seventh career main event or five-round bout (four title bouts in LFA).

Duncan, the Englishman, enters with a 9-2 professional record, including a five-fight winning streak; however, Saturday's contest will mark his first career main event or five-round fight.

Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Vegas 122 Main Event on Saturday night and use those factors to bet on these middleweights. They're expected to make their cage walks at approximately 10:45 p.m. ET (7:45 p.m. PT) on Saturday night.

Here's my Allen vs. Duncan pick and prediction. Make sure to download our Action Network app in order to get the latest MMA picks and betting analysis from our experts.

Tale of the Tape

CLD is both the bigger man (4" reach advantage) and the better athlete than Brendan Allen. Before training MMA, Duncan was a high-level amateur basketball player in the UK, winning national championships at the U-18 level. His basketball experience shows in the octagon; Duncan credits it for his footwork and spatial awareness inside the cage, which enables his dynamic, unorthodox striking style. Duncan readily employs spinning and flying techniques into his combinations, including spinning back kicks, backfists, elbows, and flying knees. Still, those explosive attacks could prove detrimental against an opponent who can calmly react and turn those sequences into takedowns.

Allen is both the better grappler and the more well-rounded fighter in this matchup. He has also faced a tougher schedule of opponents and proven himself over five rounds. His striking has improved tremendously, too, and Allen can hang with Duncan on the feet, but he's often too open defensively and willing to brawl (47% to 54% striking defense; -0.6 to +2.9 differential per minute at distance), and he isn't exceptionally durable either.

To justify his favoritism, Allen needs to push a pace in the grappling (averages 2.5 takedown attempts per five minutes at distance; 56% accuracy) and test CLD's takedown defense (58%) and submission defense if the fight hits the mat. Maintaining a hot pace could also tire Duncan out; forcing an explosive striker to grapple can take a lot of sting out of their punches and kicks when the fight eventually returns to the feet.

Still, Allen is often too willing to engage in the standup, even when he has a clear grappling edge, and he's the less durable man among these two middleweights; if he doesn't follow an optimal game plan, he could get knocked out or, at minimum, lose early minutes on damage optics.

That said, I prefer Allen's gas tank in an extended fight. CLD slowed in his last bout against Jared Cannonier, giving up three takedowns and two minutes of control in Round 3 against a 40-year-old opponent, after getting controlled for three minutes in a third round against Roman Dolidze. Conversely, Allen has maintained a high pace into the championship rounds of his prior matchups.

Allen used to gas himself out in higher-paced fights, but I think he has both fixed that part of his skill set and better managed his game plans. The primary concerns for this fight are if he 1) can't get CLD to the ground or 2) gets the fight to the ground but is unable to hold position. Allen isn't the most efficient wrestler (41% takedown accuracy), and he doesn't do well keeping opponents on the mat either (57% control rate); Allen tends to prioritize submission over position, which often lets opponents escape from bottom. And I expect CLD – at least early in the fight – to be both stronger and more explosive than his recent opponents.

If CLD can stay measured with his spinning attacks and avoid getting pinned on the mat or up against the fence, I like him to win the early minutes before the momentum likely shifts down the stretch.

Either way, I would look to time a live bet on Allen sometime after Round 2.

Allen vs. Duncan Prediction, Picks

I projected this fight right around a pick'em, setting Brendan Allen as a small 49.6% favorite (+101 implied odds) compared to listed odds of -120 (54.5% implied) or higher.

As a result, I would bet CLD at +108 or better on the moneyline while waiting for a live entry on Allen before or during the third round.

Additionally, I projected this bout to reach a decision more often than the market suggests, setting the goes-the-distance (GTD) odds at 46% (+116 implied) compared to the listed odds of +145. I would either play the GTD prop at +125 or bet Over 3.5 Rounds at -125.

Lastly, I project a correlated edge on Duncan to win by decision (projected +332, listed +500), which I would consider playing straight or including on a round-robin ticket at +500 or better.

Sean Zerillo's UFC Vegas 112 Best Bets

• Christian Leroy Duncan +110 (FanDuel)
• Over 3.5 Rounds (-108 — Polymarket)
• Brendan Allen Live after Round 2

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