Hu Yaozong vs. Alen Amedovski UFC 264 Odds, Pick & Prediction: Find Value in Opening Prelim Fight (Saturday, July 10)
Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: Hu Yaozong.
- UFC 264 opens with a fantastic prelim matchup, as Hu Yaozong takes on Alen Amedovski.
- Both fighters are 0-2 in the UFC and looking to make a noteworthy impact on what is poised to be a big show.
- Erich Richter breaks down where he sees betting value in this matchup, delivering his best bet below.
Editor’s Note: The Hu Yaozong vs. Alen Amedovski fight was cancelled due to COVID protocols.
Hu Yaozong vs. Alen Amedovski Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-156 / +122)|
|Time||Approx. 6:15 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Friday afternoon and via FanDuel|
Get your popcorn ready because our undercard best bet is the very first fight on the UFC 264 prelims, when Hu Yaozong faces off against Alen Amedovski in the middleweight division.
Yaozong, now 24 years old, debuted at heavyweight when he was 22 and weighed 234 pounds. His last fight came at light heavyweight, where he easily made 205 pounds, and now he will go down to middleweight, where he made weight at 185.5 on Friday morning in Las Vegas.
He will certainly have a size advantage on Saturday, standing at 6-foot-3-inches tall, compared to just 5-foot-11 for Amedovski. The fight is expected to start just after 6 p.m. ET, and you will not want to miss the start of UFC 264 this weekend.
For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out Sean Zerillo’s projections for the entire slate.
Tale of the Tape
|Avg. Fight Time||11:17||7:39|
|Weight (pounds)||185.5 lbs.||186 lbs.|
|Date of birth||4/7/95||4/6/88|
|Sig Strikes Per Min||4.43||0.52|
|SS Absorbed Per Min||5.23||3.14|
|Take Down Avg||0.0||0.0|
This one is particularly interesting because both fighters are 0-2 in their UFC careers, and neither has really shown their game. Yaozong is a silver medalist in Greco-Roman wrestling, despite the fact that he has not yet landed a UFC takedown.
Yaozong should be adept at getting fights to the ground with his clinch work which looked pretty high level. Against Rashad Coulter, Yaozong did a great job of weighing on the bigger opponent, tiring him out in Rounds 2 and 3. He lost the decision, but I still came away impressed with his skills and toughness.
A major area of concern for Yaozong is that he was badly hurt in Round 1 and nearly finished by Coulter. This definitely gives me a worry since that is Amedovski’s win condition.
Amedovski is almost funny the way he fights. He sprinted out of the gate against John Phillips, attempting to land a knockout early. Instead, he was knocked out unconscious within 15 seconds. Not the best strategy to win consistently in the UFC.
We know how Amedovski will be looking to pick up a victory on Saturday. He is going to look to land a big punch and put Yaozong asleep. His career numbers back that up, as all eight of his wins are by knockout.
Conversely, we have seen Amedovski really struggle with takedowns if he does not land the knockout early in the fight. Krzystof Jotko landed four takedowns — with a 100% takedown rate — against Amedovski and had 9:36 of control time. Amedovski is very much a knockout-or-bust fighter.
Importantly, Yaozong’s striking defense needs some work since his head is constantly on the centerline. He will need to show improvement with his head movement if he is going to come out victorious on Saturday.
Yaozong vs. Amedovski Pick
This fight is interesting in a lot of different areas.
First and foremost, we know Yaozong can be hit. He is extremely young in his career, so I hope to see some improvement in his striking defense. However, even if he does not show much improvement in that area, I cannot overlook his serious skills in the clinch and low calf kick game.
Every minute that passes in this fight favors Yaozong.
Moreover, Yaozong survived and looked pretty good against a legitimate light heavyweight. He showed he is able to take that punch against a legitimate striker and keep moving forward.
As a principle for UFC betting, I favor the fighter who moves down in weight rather than moves up, Hu will have a size advantage that cannot be undervalued.
Furthermore, readers of my weekly UFC bets know I love betting against fighters who do not show much takedown defense. Amedovski profiles as exactly that.
The line on this fight had a ton of value early in the week. Yaozong opened as a +150 underdog and has now fallen to +112 on FanDuel. I do see value on his moneyline as I rarely bet on fighters who need an immediate knockout or the bet is dead.
My favorite prop on this fight is Hu Yaozong to win by decision at +600 on FanDuel. This prop is excellent since if this goes to decision, it is difficult to foresee a way that Amedovski wins it.
I would bet that prop down to +400, I see this as a great opportunity, and could be easy if Yaozong put his Greco-Roman Wrestling silver medal to good use.
The Pick: Hu Yaozong by decision +600 (play down to +400)