Ian Garry vs. Gabe Green UFC 276 Odds, Pick & Prediction: Time to Fade Hyped Prospect? (Saturday, July 2)
Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC welterweight Gabe Green
- Welterweights Ian Garry and Gabe Green will clash in the prelims at UFC 276.
- The Irishman, Garry, is the favorite, but the value may lie with the underdog.
- Sean Zerillo breaks down both sides of the matchup and gives his betting pick below.
Ian Garry vs. Gabe Green Odds
Irish welterweight Ian Garry will put his undefeated record on the line when he meets Gabe Green on Saturday’s UFC 276 preliminary card.
Garry, a former Cage Warriors champ, brings a well-rounded game to his fight against Green, a veteran of Dana White’s Contender Series who’s won back-to-back UFC fights.
Below I detail where to find betting value in the matchup. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here. Let’s jump into the matchup.
Tale of the Tape
| Garry | Green | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-0 | 11-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:00 | 13:01 |
| Height | 6’3″ | 5’10” |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 74″ | 73″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Date of birth | 11/17/97 | 5/2/83 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.6 | 6.3 |
| SS Accuracy | 53% | 44% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.1 | 6.6 |
| SS Defense | 51% | 49% |
| Take Down Avg. | .0 | .8 |
| TD Acc | 0% | 100% |
| TD Def | 75% | 54% |
| Submission Avg | .0 | .4 |
Garry might be one of the more overhyped prospects in the history of the UFC, and I suspect that bettors who continue to fade him at underdog prices will eventually cash tickets.
However, I’m uncertain that Green is the man to take the zero from the undefeated Irish prospect.
Green’s best MMA skills are intangibles: cardio and durability. Garry is likely the more skilled fighter in all facets of MMA and doesn’t seem like the type of fighter who will slow down or finish with relative ease.
However, Garry is still extremely raw and doesn’t necessarily win minutes convincingly, so I suspect that Green can keep this fight close and competitive for the duration.
Garry vs. Green Pick
Garry’s best chance of success here may come with his wrestling. Green was taken down twice by Yoan Lainesse and Phillip Rowe – neither of whom I would consider good wrestlers. However, Green is adept at getting back to his feet.
Both men have below-average striking defense (51% for Garry, 49% for Green). Still, I expect Garry to get the better of the striking exchanges with his long straight punches.
However, I view this fight as more of a coin flip than the odds suggest. I projected Green as a 40.7% underdog in this fight, and I’m happy to take a poke on his moneyline at +150 or better (40% implied).
I suspect we’ll find better spots to fade Garry in the future, however, so I’m keeping my bet relatively small.
The Pick: Gabe Green (+155, 0.25u) at BetMGM
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