Jonathan Micallef vs. Oban Elliot Odds
| Micallef Odds | -135 |
| ElliotOdds | +114 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-215/+165) |
| Location | Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney, Australia |
| Bout Time | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 325 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 325 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Jonathan Micallef vs. Oban Elliot prediction for UFC 325 on Saturday, January 31, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
2025 was not a great year for Oban Elliott. His four-fight UFC winning streak ended, and he had to pull-out of a scheduled bout with Australian Jonathan Micallef in September. Now Micallef will get to fight in front of his home crowd, as the two prospects are again set to clash at UFC 325. In what oddsmakers have deemed a closely contested bout, let’s dive into the breakdown and extract some value from this prelim contest.
Here's my Micallef vs. Elliot pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Micallef | Elliot | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 8-1 | 12-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:01 | 14:08 |
| Height | 6'0" | 6'0" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 77" | 72" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 3/5/1999 | 12/19/1997 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.77 | 3.50 |
| SS Accuracy | 43% | 48% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.00 | 2.24 |
| SS Defense | 58% | 60% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.83 | 1.70 |
| TD Acc | 50% | 44% |
| TD Def | 50% | 55% |
| Submission Avg | 0.8 | 0 |
Jonathan Micallef impressed in his Dana White Contender Series fight, by besting an undefeated fighter by triangle choke in a fight that was mostly a grappling affair. Micallef displayed just how dangerous he can be on the mat, reversing his opponent on multiple occasions and holding his own in scrambles that eventually led to a high-level setup of his fight-finishing choke.
Micallef’s main roster debut couldn’t have been more different, as his striking was his calling card in a win over UFC veteran Kevin Jousset. Micallef unleashed a high-volume kicking game with an emphasis on attacking the body from his southpaw stance. In total, Micallef landed 28 of 34 significant strikes to the body in his unanimous decision victory, and proved to be the more accurate striker in all three rounds.
Micallef is a huge welterweight and showcased his ability to use his 77 inch reach. He will likely enjoy a reach advantage for the entirety of his career at his size, and on Saturday he will have a decided edge of 5 inches over Elliott, despite both men being listed as the same height. Distance management will be a key element to his potential victory given Elliott’s fighting style.
Elliott has the cardio and wrestling pedigree to control this fight as well, but he will have to breach the distance in which Micallef wants this fight to play out. Getting inside and making this fight resemble a boxing match at a closer distance is the path to victory for Elliott. He must make this fight a dirty affair, and use timely entries if he is going to pull the small upset here.
It will be interesting to see if Micallef uses as many kicks in this fight given the threat of the takedown. Micallef also has a stinging straight left at his disposal that he can catch Elliott with, and a well-timed head kick is on the table when Elliott dips his head while closing the distance. Elliott possesses solid technical boxing skills, but he does leave himself open to counters when he presses forward.
Elliott’s most recent loss as a big favorite does not really concern me moving forward, as he was simply controlled by a better wrestler and better athlete. I do not see that type of fight repeating as it will be "The Welsh Gangster" pursuing the takedown.
Micallef vs. Elliot Pick, Prediction
Both men have good power and both have shown lapses of durability in the past, so I will avoid the total here and back the slight favorite Micallef.
If Elliott is unsuccessful in timing his entries, takes too long to find his boxing rhythm, or struggles to drag Micallef down once he does press him against the cage, this is the Australian’s fight to lose. Micallef is simply the more fluid striker and I have the feeling his best days are still yet to come inside the octagon.
John's Pick: Jonathan Micallef -135 (Caesars)
