Mickey Gall vs. Mike Malott Odds, UFC 273 Pick & Prediction: Is the Wrong Fighter Favored? (Saturday, April 9)
Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC fighter Mickey Gall.
- Welterweights Mickey Gall and Mike Malott open the primetime portion of Saturday's UFC 273 card.
- Gall has the experience edge but enters as the underdogs (+140 odds) against the UFC newcomer.
- Sean Zerillo details how he plans to bet this matchup below.
Mickey Gall vs. Mike Malott Odds
Welterweights Mickey Gall and Mike Malott will go head-to-head Saturday in primetime on the UFC 273 stage.
Malott fits a pair of criteria for the type of fighters I generally fade, on principle, at the UFC level as (1) a debutant from contender series, with (2) several quick finishes on his recent record. Will that trend hold true in this matchup?
Below, I’ll provide my analysis and picks for Saturday’s matchup. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.
Tale of the Tape
|Avg. Fight Time||8:18||7:50|
|Weight (pounds)||170.5 lbs.||170.5 lbs.|
|Date of birth||1/22/92||11/7/91|
|Sig Strikes Per Min||2.92||4.41|
|SS Absorbed Per Min||4.10||4.35|
|Take Down Avg||1.08||1.92|
Mallot has totaled less than three minutes of cage time across his past three fights over five years.
The one time he was extended (at Bellator 142 in 2015), Malott scored a 10-8 first round, faded, and dropped the remaining two frames — ending in a majority draw.
Moreover, Mallot is a former Featherweight who has come up to 170, and I suspect that Gall will be the bigger man in the cage.
People still view Gall as the warm body brought in to potentially lose to CM Punk (closed as a -430 favorite) back in 2016. Still, Gall has made significant improvements to his overall game while managing a 5-4 record in the promotion.
He recently moved his fight camp down to Sanford MMA — one of the top gyms in the sport — and as the younger man in the fight, I anticipate that he’s likely to have made more improvements since we saw either fighter last.
Malott’s current skillset remains a mystery, but I expect him to fade if he doesn’t get another quick finish. Still, Gall has never had great stamina, so it’s not like he can weaponize his cardio in this fight.
But Gall can take a punch, and I anticipate that the grappling will be competitive, at a minimum. Gall might even be the superior grappler once we see it play out, which would make him a hindsight favorite.
Additionally, Gall has improved his striking to the point where he can hang around with unranked competition, but he needs to ramp up his aggression to create more opportunities for variance, mainly when he’s the underdog.
Gall vs. Malott Pick
Given the question marks on the Malott side beyond the first few minutes, and Gall’s general toughness, this fight projects closer to a coin flip than the odds suggest; and I set Gall’s moneyline at +113.
I bet Gall around +170 earlier this week — the line has since moved in our favor — but would continue to play that number down to +127 (44% implied), at a three percentage point edge compared to my projection.
The Pick: Mickey Gall (+145, 1u)