Read our Noche predictions for the Saturday, September 13 event live from the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas. The entire card airs on ESPN+ starting at 3:00 p.m. ET, with the main card officially starting at 7:00 p.m.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 14-fight lineup for their UFC best bets and identified their favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
Noche UFC Moneyline Projections
Noche UFC Prop Projections
Alice Pereira vs. Montserrat Rendon
Billy Ward, Staff Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 3:45 p.m. ET
On Saturday afternoon, Alice "Golden Girl" Pereira will become the youngest ever female UFC fighter. The Brazilian phenom is 5-0 as a professional with four knockouts (with another professional fight not counting on her record due to legitimacy issues).
There's not much tape out there on Pereira — and be sure not to confuse her with Aline Pereira, sister of former UFC champ Alex Pereira — but in the clips I could find, the 5'10" Pereira showed quick hands and solid fundamental grappling.
Handicapping this fight is more about trusting the process from the UFC, though. They've matched Pereira with 36-year-old Montserrat Rendon, a 6-1 pro who has three wins by split decision, including her only UFC victory. The UFC didn't put this fight together because they want to promote Rendon; she's a carefully selected debut opponent for a fighter they believe can be a future star.
Rendon is a plodding grappler who doesn't do much with the takedowns she can secure, and is at a fairly considerable athleticism disadvantage against Pereira.
Plus, it's telling that despite her young age, the UFC allowed Pereira to skip the typical Contender Series path to the Octagon. Nor did they have her debut on a lower-wattage fight night event from the Apex. They're privy to more information than we are about her actual abilities, and they seem to believe they have something in the 19-year-old Brazilian.
Which is enough for me to trust that they're right, especially with the discount we're getting on Pereira late in the week. Her moneyline has dropped all the way to -140 at BetMGM, and I'd continue to take it to around -160.
The Pick: Pereira -140 (BetMGM)
Dustin Stoltzfus vs. Kelvin Gastelum
Sean Zerillo, Senior Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:45 p.m. ET
Kelvin Gastelum was the only fighter to miss weight on Friday, hitting the scaled 5.5 pounds over the middleweight limit. It's a particularly concerning miss for Gastelum, a natural welterweight who hinted that Saturday's bout could be his last fight with the promotion. While he has shown exceptional durability throughout his career, Gastelum was knocked down twice in his last fight against Joe Pyfer and appears to be in physical decline.
Dustin Soltzfus is the natural middleweight (4" taller, 4" reach advantage) and possesses all of the grappling upside in this matchup. He's not particularly fleet of foot, but Stotlzfus is strong and should be able to control Gastelum from the top position – or finish the fight via submission – if he's able to drag his opponent down to the mat.
Gastelum doesn't have exceptionally sturdy takedown defense (58% career), and he consistently makes technical mistakes and puts himself into bad positions to escape, which should create opportunities for Stoltzfus to advance position.
Gastelum – a former title challenger who nearly won UFC gold over Israel Adesanya – has a lot of name value, but this is actually a solid stylistic matchup for Stoltzfus, who isn't exceptionally durable, against a point fighter with limited power; Gastelum hasn't finished an opponent (an aged Michael Bisping) since 2017.
The public data sample I incorporate into projections indicates that Gastelum is likely to win this fight nearly 80% of the time. As a result, my weighted betting model has Stoltzfus at over 40% (projected +136). Bet his moneyline down to +150, and play his submission prop (projected +639) or inside the distance prop (projected +463) to +700 and +500, respectively.
The Pick: Dustin Stoltzfus +210 (FanDuel) | Stoltzfus wins by Submission (+1300 at FanDuel)
