Jamie Mullarkey vs. Khama Worthy Odds
The UFC 260 main card kicks off with two Lightweight challengers — Jamie Mullarkey and Khama Worthy — going head-to-head and looking to bounce back off their respective losses. Mullarkey is still seeking his first win in the Octagon and Worthy lost by TKO in September.
Below I'll preview the matchup and odds for tonight's fight. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.
Tale of the Tape
| Mullarkey | Worthy | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-4 | 16-7 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 15:00 | 6:14 |
| Height | 6'0" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 74" | 74" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 8/17/94 | 10/15/86 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 1.87 | 4.12 |
| SS Accuracy | 33% | 47% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.60 | 3.69 |
| SS Defense | 42% | 45% |
| Take Down Avg | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| TD Acc | 30% | 0% |
| TD Def | 66% | 57% |
| Submission Avg | 0.5 | 0.8 |
Despite six career knockout losses, I think the durability concerns for Worthy are a bit overblown against a terribly inaccurate striker like Mullarkey (33% accuracy, -2.73 differential), who will look to win this fight with his wrestling and control (4.00 takedowns per 15 minutes, 30% accuracy).
Mullarkey's lack of volume is going to lead to some wonky losses.
In his last fight against Fares Ziam, for example, he trailed 47-20 in the significant strike battle, but secured five takedowns and held 6:56 of control. Fifteen of the 17 media members and two-thirds of fans scored the bout for Mullarkey, but Ziam won 29-28 on all three judges' scorecards.
Worthy is the far better athlete, carries more power, and is very likely to finish this fight or rack up the volume if he can keep the bout standing. But he showed holes in his takedown defense against Luis Pena (allowed 3-of-7 attempts, with 4:13 of control), which could give Mullarkey a path to winning minutes here.
Mullarkey vs. Worthy Pick
I projected Mullarkey's decision line at +305 and was able to pick off +400 before the market moved his way — down from +140 (implied 41.6%) to +105 (48.8%) in recent weeks.
I'd be OK with a small stab down to +300, but would otherwise pass on this fight.
The Pick: Mullarkey Wins by Decision (+320)
