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UFC 281 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Frankie Edgar vs. Chris Gutierrez: Can ‘The Answer’ End on a Win? (Saturday, November 12)

UFC 281 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Frankie Edgar vs. Chris Gutierrez: Can ‘The Answer’ End on a Win? (Saturday, November 12) article feature image
Credit:

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC middleweight Frankie Edgar

  • Former UFC champion Frankie Edgar enters the cage for the final time as part of Saturday's UFC 281.
  • Edgar is a big underdog to bantamweight Chris Gutierrez.
  • Below, MMA analyst Sean Zerillo breaks down the matchup, including a +350 betting opportunity.

Frankie Edgar vs. Chris Gutierrez Odds

Edgar Odds
+210
Gutierrez Odds
-280
Over/Under
2.5 (-156 / +122)
Venue
Madison Square Garden in New York City
Time
10:30 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN+ Pay-per-view
Odds as of Friday and via FanDuel.

Former champion and longtime fan favorite Frankie Edgar will enter the cage for the final time as part of the UFC 281 main card.

Edgar, a 13-year UFC fighter and eight-time Fight of the Night winner, makes his final walk for a featured bantamweight bout against Chris Gutierrez.

Is Edgar the play, or is this a clear fade spot?

Tale of the Tape

Edgar Gutierrez
Record 23-10-1 18-3-2
Avg. Fight Time 16:23 12:39
Height 5’6″ 5’9″
Weight (pounds) 135 lbs. 135 lbs.
Reach (inches) 68″ 67″
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Date of birth 10/16/1981 4/22/1991
Sig Strikes Per Min 3.79 4.69
SS Accuracy 40% 58%
SS Absorbed Per Min 2.81 2.61
SS Defense 66% 63%
Take Down Avg 2.30 0.44
TD Acc 31% 37%
TD Def 65% 73%
Submission Avg 0.3 0.1

Saturday will mark the retirement fight for New Jersey native Frankie Edgar, the former lightweight champion who has moved down two divisions since his peak.

At 41 years old, Edgar’s athleticism and durability have slipped. He’s been finished in four of his past five losses and is returning from a one-year layoff following his knockout loss to Chito Vera at MSG last November.

Edgar will use his wrestling to consolidate position and maintain top control against Gutierrez (73% takedown defense), who has proven to be one of the most dangerous leg kickers in the UFC.

Gutierrez has been taken down by six of his eight UFC opponents. Still, he has made tremendous strides in his takedown defense and getup game in recent years.

While Edgar dances in and of the pocket and looks for openings to land combinations or shoot for legs, Gutierrez will look to chop him down, limit his mobility, and put Edgar away late.

Although he scored a beautiful spinning-back fist knockout in his last fight, Gutierrez generally isn’t a headhunter; he typically focuses on the legs and body of his opponents, particularly early in fights.

Relative to Edgar’s recent opponents, Gutierrez is significantly less dangerous, and he represents a severe step down in competition. In fact, Gutierrez has the most minor name recognition of Edgar’s opponents, dating back to 2009 (Matt Veach). “The Answer” has been fighting only killers for more than a decade.

Edgar vs. Gutierrez Pick

While I’m confident that Gutierrez is improving, Edgar still represents the most challenging test of his career – particularly in terms of wrestling – and Gutierrez lost a 10-8 round via grappling (4:24 of control time) against Cody Durden back in August 2020. He doesn’t hold a single win over a ranked opponent.

Still, Edgar has always been susceptible to leg kicks. And clearly, he can’t absorb as many head strikes as he used to. His movement has slowed, and his athleticism has waned.

Yet, I still think he has a path to victory on Saturday in his final trip to the octagon, mainly if he can catch kicks and turn those into takedowns.

I show slight value on Edgar at +200 or better (projected +190), but I prefer his decision prop (projected +286, listed +350 at DraftKings) for small stakes.

And I would prefer to bet the fight to go the distance (projected -124, listed -112 at FanDuel) at a substantial discount relative to Edgar’s typical pricing (-160 vs. Marlon Vera; -180 vs. Cory Sandhagen).

The Pick: Fight goes to Decision (-112, 0.5u at FanDuel) | Frankie Edgar wins by Decision (+350, 0.1u at DraftKings)

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