UFC 282 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Alex Morono: Value With Late-notice Underdog (Saturday, December 10)

UFC 282 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Alex Morono: Value With Late-notice Underdog (Saturday, December 10) article feature image

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC welterweight Alex Morono

  • Late replacement Alex Morono is a big underdog to Santiago Ponzinibbio on Saturday at UFC 282.
  • The fight is part of the pay-per-view main card and will be contested at a catchweight of 180 pounds due to the late booking.
  • Below, Sean Zerillo shares the small prop bet he's targeting for the matchip.

Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Alex Morono Odds

Ponzinibbio Odds
Morono Odds
2.5 (-170 / +130)
T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas
11 p.m. ET
Odds as of Friday and via Caesars.

Santiago Ponzinibbio will have to contend with short-notice replacement Alex Morono when they meet on Saturday at UFC 282.

The bout is part of the pay-per-view main card and came together when Morono stepped in for injured Robbie Lawler a week ago.

Now, Morono is the underdog as he enters the 180-pound catchweight fight.

Should he be the 'dog, though? Let's look at the matchup.

Tale of the Tape

Avg. Fight Time10:4611:37
Weight (pounds)170 lbs.170 lbs.
Reach (inches)73"72"
Date of birth9/26/19868/16/1990
Sig Strikes Per Min5.005.36
SS Accuracy41%43%
SS Absorbed Per Min4.774.01
SS Defense60%57%
Take Down Avg0.560.32
TD Acc31%20%
TD Def60%51%
Submission Avg0.00.3

Morono claimed Lawler's main-card spot on short notice and will see the toughest test of his career against the recently ranked Ponzinibbio.

"The Great White" enters on a four-fight winning streak against the aging Argentine, who has dropped three of his past four fights, albeit to top-level competition.

Prime for prime, Ponzinibbio is the clear side in this matchup, especially at this price point.

Still, Ponzinibbio is a long way off from his physical peak, squeaking out one close decision win (in comeback fashion) since returning from a two-year layoff.

The grappling seems like a wash; either man can mix in takedowns against the right opponent, though Ponzinibbio is slightly more proactively about mixing in shots.

I expect to see a striker vs. striker battle in which Ponzinibbio carries more power and lands the more immediately impactful strikes. In contrast, Morono should land more volume and spend most of the fight on his bike, circling Ponzinibbio.

Ponzinibbio vs. Morono Pick

I don't see value on either side of the moneyline. Still, I do see value in the Overs or the fight to reach a decision prop (projected -163, listed -135) or on either fighter to win by decision (projected +288 Morono, +188 Ponzinibbio; listed +300 and +195, respectively).

Given the power discrepancy, I'd instead tie anything decision related to the Morono side; Ponznibbio tends to stand in the center of the octagon and invite wars, which doesn't correlate as well with either the Over or his decision prop. Still, there is a distinct possibility that Morono squeaks by another (seemingly better opponent) by taking a competitive bout on the scorecards.

I'll take a slight poke at Morono's decision prop. Still, the edge is minuscule, and I can't justify anything more than a minimal investment.

The Pick: Alex Morono wins by Decision (+300, 0.1u at DraftKings)

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