UFC 283 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Paul Craig vs. Johnny Walker: Any Bets for When Meme Machines Collide? (Saturday, January 21)

UFC 283 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Paul Craig vs. Johnny Walker: Any Bets for When Meme Machines Collide? (Saturday, January 21) article feature image

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC light heavyweight Johnny Walker of Brazil

  • Things could get wild when Johnny Walker and Paul Craig kick off Saturday's UFC 283 main card.
  • The light heavyweights have some of the highest finishing rates on the UFC roster.
  • Below, Sean Zerillo discusses one betting angle he's considering for the Fight of the Night candidate.

Paul Craig vs. Johnny Walker Odds

Craig Odds
Walker Odds
1.5 (+150 / -185)
Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro
10 p.m. ET
ESPN+ Pay-per-view
Odds as of Friday and via DraftKings.

The UFC 283 main card kicks off with a pair of finishers when Paul Craig meets Jonny Walker.

The ranked light heavyweights – Craig is the No. 9-ranked contender and Walker is No. 12 – have produced 34 stoppages in 35 wins, so don't blink when the pay-per-view portion of the event kicks off.

Let's break down this potentially wild matchup.

Tale of the Tape

Avg. Fight Time8:077:01
Weight (pounds)205 lbs.205 bs.
Reach (inches)76"82"
Date of birth11/27/19873/30/1992
Sig Strikes Per Min2.473.26
SS Accuracy46%59%
SS Absorbed Per Min2.792.64
SS Defense47%42%
Take Down Avg1.850.43
TD Acc20%100%
TD Def50%58%
Submission Avg1.71.3

This light heavyweight clash between a pair of meme machines is my favorite fight on Saturday's undercard.

No fighter consistently pulls victory from the jaws of defeat like Craig, while Walker's dynamic power and wonky chin have led to some wild, high-variance exchanges in his matchups.

Walker should get the best of the striking and make the most of his six-inch reach advantage, but Craig could be a touch busier with his kicks, leading to some problematic scoring for the judges.

This fight is highly likely to end inside the distance, however. Still, I view Walker as the superior minute winner and generally find Craig's finish props misaligned relative to his moneyline.

Craig vs. Walker Pick

I had difficulty finding an actionable bet on Saturday's main card opener.

FanDuel has a submission line on Craig (+340) that is misaligned with the market, but they have left his finish odds (+210) shorter than other books; essentially, they're betting on a Craig knockout, which isn't impossible given Walker's questionable chin.

This is a high-variance matchup in which either man can score a knockout or secure a submission, and I see no reason to force a bet on either side if the value isn't there.

That being said, Craig's moneyline has continually climbed throughout the week, and I'd be more interested in playing him around +180 than the current pricing.

The Pick: Pass

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