UFC 284 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Joshua Culibao vs. Melsik Baghdasaryan: Bet This Time Prop (Saturday, February 11)
Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC featherweight Melsik Baghdasaryan
Joshua Culibao vs. Melsik Baghdasaryan Odds
Australia’s Joshua Culibao looks for his third straight UFC victory when he meets fellow featherweight Melsik Baghdasaryan at UFC 284.
The bout is part of the ESPN-televised preliminary card, which takes place in Perth in Culibao’s home country.
Is the local fighter the play, or does this bout present value elsewhere? Let’s jump in.
Tale of the Tape
|Avg. Fight Time||13:15||12:17|
|Weight (pounds)||145 lbs.||145 lbs.|
|Date of birth||5/24/1994||1/28/1992|
|Sig Strikes Per Min||3.06||6.00|
|SS Absorbed Per Min||3.06||3.48|
|Take Down Avg||0.00||0.00|
The Culibao-Baghsaryan matchup is the most closely lined fight on Saturday’s card. Depending upon the book, you can get a 10-cent differential between -115 and -105 on the same fighter.
I’m curious to see where the line closes by fight time, but I lean toward Culibao as the slight favorite; he owns a three-inch reach advantage and likely has the edges in cardio and wrestling.
I don’t expect to see much grappling between these two strikers. Still, if the fight hits the mat, I expect Culibao to have the advantage; MMA fights tend to hit the ground more often than not.
Moreover, Culibao is the better puncher while Baghdasaryan has the superior kicking game. I generally side with the better puncher because head strikes play better for judges than leg and body strikes.
However, the skill level and optics in this fight should be reasonably balanced, and I expect a close and competitive affair in which the winner may be difficult to determine.
Culibao vs. Baghdasaryan Pick
I don’t see either fighter as particularly powerful for the weight class, and I don’t necessarily see durability concerns on either side. Both are extremely careful – and patient – when deciding to throw too.
As a result, I expect a moderate-tempo kickboxing match – in a big cage – where the likelihood of a finish is well below average.
I projected this bout to go to a decision 62.5% of the time (-163 implied) – more than 8% over the division average, and I would bet the fight to go to a decision up to -153 (60.5% implied) at a 2% edge compared to my number.
For round-robin purposes, Culibao by decision (projected +201, listed +220 at FanDuel) also caught my attention.
Pick: Fight goes the distance (-134) | Bet to -153
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