UFC 290 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Robbie Lawler vs. Niko Price: ‘Ruthless’ Can Buck Retirement-Fight Trend (Saturday, July 8)
Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC welterweight Robbie Lawler at 2023 UFC Hall of Fame inductions
Robbie Lawler vs. Niko Price Odds
Robbie Lawler will make his final walk to the cage when he has his retirement fight at UFC 290 opposite Niko Price.
The welterweight fight closes out the UFC 290 preliminary card on Saturday night.
Ex-champ Lawler has been a fan favorite for two decades, and in his final career appearance, he's got a tough test against the always-game Price.
Let's dig into Lawler's retirement fight and look at betting angles.
Tale of the Tape
|Avg. Fight Time||11:34||8:31|
|Weight (pounds)||170 lbs.||170 lbs.|
|Date of birth||3/20/1982||9/29/1989|
|Sig Strikes Per Min||3.83||5.48|
|SS Absorbed Per Min||4.67||5.57|
|Take Down Avg||0.65||0.70|
The UFC doesn't always hand their legends winnable matchups in retirement fights, but I think 41-year-old "Ruthless" has a shot at going out on a high note against 33-year-old Price, who has seemed equally shopworn in his recent bouts.
I alluded to the age angles earlier – and am betting against those trends in this matchup. But I can't help but feel like Price, who is 1-3-1 in his past four bouts, has looked slow and old on the heels of multiple knee surgeries and countless wars throughout his career.
Lawler, who is 1-5-1 in his past six bouts with his only win over an aged Nick Diaz fighting for the first time in six years, figures to land on the very hittable price (48% striking defense) who might be happy to oblige Lawler in a brawl.
Price likely has the grappling advantage and could probably hit takedowns against Lawler (64% takedown defense). Still, he gave another legend – Cowboy Cerrone – a high-paced striking battle just a few years ago, and I'd imagine that Price has enough respect for Lawler to slug this one out too.
Lawler vs. Price Pick
Lawler should be the better technician in a brawl and offer better defense, even if his hand speed has slipped a touch. And he might have the better offensive-kicking game too.
Aside from pure age on paper and Price's grappling advantage, it isn't easy to justify Lawler as a big underdog in the type of stylistic matchup that should suit him well.
I projected Lawler closer to +180; bet his moneyline down to that projected line.
The Pick: Robbie Lawler (+200, 0.5u) at bet365 (bet to +180)