UFC 290 Odds: Betting Picks, Previews, Predictions for Every Fight (Saturday, July 8)

The UFC 290 odds board features a main event between featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski and interim titleholder Yair Rodriguez, in addition to flyweight champ Brandon Moreno vs. challenger Alexandre Pantoja in the co-main event.

I've made my UFC 290 picks for tonight and broken down all 13 fights from the pay-per-view card below.

The UFC 290 preliminary card begins at 6 p.m. ET (3 p.m. PT) on ESPN+ and UFC Fight Pass before moving to ABC and ESPN at 8 p.m. ET. The five-fight UFC 290 main card will commence at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV.

After examining all betting options, a typical UFC card can offer substantial actionable value.

So, in addition to moneylines and over/unders, I'll break down how I plan to bet every fight on the card, including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether or not the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.

Fight times are approximate and subject to change. All times ET.

UFC 290 Projected Odds

Below is my fair odds moneyline projection for each of Saturday's 13 bouts. In the next section, you'll discover forecasts for those fights to finish inside the distance or for each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission.

Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings.

UFC 290 Prop Projections

In addition to creating a crowdsourced projection for moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission, enabling us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance or for each fighter to win inside of the distance.

UFC 290 Odds

Kamuela Kirk vs. Esteban Ribovics

Crowdsourced Projections: Esteban Ribovics (56.3%)

Saturday's lightweight opener has seen some line movement toward the underdog, with Kamuela Kirk's line decreasing from +150 (40% implied) to +125 (44.4% implied) in the past few days.

From a pre-fight perspective, Kirk is probably the right side on the moneyline; he owns a six-inch reach advantage and should be able to land takedowns early against Esteban Ribovics.

However, though he is moving up in weight here (from 145 to 155 pounds) – which could help his stamina to a degree – Kirk doesn't have good cardio.

Ribovics expends energy to get off his back, and if Kirk has difficulty holding down – or continually trying to wrestle his opponent – he may eventually gas himself out.

As a result, look to live bet Ribovics after Round 1; although Kirk is moving up in weight, I still think Ribovics has a distinct cardio advantage. And betting Ribovics to win in Round 2 (+700) or Round 3 (+1100) pre-fight is also an exciting angle alongside that type of analysis.

Bets

• Esteban Ribovics Live after Round 1

Shannon Ross vs. Jesus Santos Aguilar

Crowdsourced Projections: Jesus Aguilar (51.6%)

Shannon Ross is the larger athlete (two inches taller, four-inch reach advantage) and the more skilled MMA fighter, but a wonky chin makes him challenging to back with your money.

Still, the UFC might have set Ross up for success in this matchup, handing him a grappler in Jesus Santos Aguilar with minimal power, zero career knockouts, and one of the shortest reaches (62 inches) in UFC history.

Ross should be able to stick on the outside of the octagon and out-volume Aguilar as the superior technical striker.

Aguilar needs to force the issue, press forward, and implement his grappling if he intends to justify his favoritism; still, I think that Ross can counter-wrestle shots or scramble away from any completed takedowns and get this fight back to striking range, where he should have a distinct advantage.

I view Ross as the better minute-winner in this matchup, but think that Santos has more finishing upside. However, you can bet Ross's moneyline down to +115 (projected +106) and either sprinkle his decision prop (projected +244) or include it in a round-robin.

Bets

• Shannon Ross (+125, 0.5u) at WynnBet
• Shannon Ross wins by Decision (+450, 0.1u) at DraftKings

Cameron Saaiman vs. Terrence Mitchell

Crowdsourced Projections: Cameron Saaiman (88%)

The 22-year-old Cameron Saaiman was initially supposed to face Christian Rodriguez in a matchup between young and exciting prospects but will instead draw Alaska native Terrence Mitchell, who competed on The Ultimate Fighter in 2016.

I have habitually bet against Alaska FC products such as Jordan Wright and Carlton Minus, who have managed to secure UFC contracts in recent years. Other prospects such as Mitchell or Aaron Phillips didn't make it past the first round of their fight on TUF. Only Lauren Murphy and potentially Uros Medic have proven to belong at the UFC level after coming through the Alaskan regional scene.

It might be challenging to trust Saaiman as a significant favorite after he committed multiple fouls in his last fight and nearly disqualified himself, but the young South African has a well-rounded skillset for a fighter his age and seems poises to rise the rankings of the 135-pound division.

Mitchell will have a sizable reach advantage (seven inches), but Saaiman is the far superior technical striker and wrestler, as well as a much more durable fighter. At age 33, Mitchell is on the wrong side of the age curve at bantamweight. And he's up against multiple data points that have proven beneficial for the fighter in Saaiman's position.

When there is at least a 10-year age gap between UFC fighters, the younger man has won 70.8% of the time (302-124) at average offs closer to -143 (58.8% implied), about 12% over expectation. Additionally, short-notice replacements have a 36.8% win rate (169-290) and at average odds of +181 (35.6% implied). They are typically profitable, but not when a short-notice debutant is fighting an octagon veteran.

I set Saaiman's fair odds in this matchup at -733, and I would include him as a parlay piece up to -670, at a 1% edge compared to my number.

I also show value on Saaiman by decision (projected +468, listed +600) and the fight to reach a decision (projected +372, listed +400) depending upon the book. However, if Saaiman justified his price tag, he likely finishes. And I wouldn't play either bet outside of a round-robin.

Bets

• Parlay (-200, 0.5u): Cameron Saaiman (-550) & Alexander Volkanovski (-370)

Vitor Petrino vs. Marcin Prachnio

Crowdsourced Projections: Vitor Petrino (67.4%) 

After a trio of knockout losses to begin his UFC career, Marcin Prachnio has compiled a 3-1 record in the light heavyweight division and avoided a knockout shot from each opponent.

He's been able to play the outside kickboxing game in those recent fights but may have difficulty finding success with the same style against Petrino, who has immense power and a three-inch reach advantage. Petrino also showed competent wrestling and grappling abilities in his win over Anton Turkalj.

Petrino will push forward early and look to land power shots, and Prachnio doesn't have the offensive wrestling to change levels and break up that pressure. Perhaps Prachnio can push Petirno against the cage to slow down the pace, but unless he gets his opponent's respect with a punch, Petrino will keep walking him down.

Defensively, Petrino is extremely hittable (47% striking defense). And if Prachnio does manage to find his range, he can hammer leg kicks from a distance and avoid getting punched in the head. Still, I expect the younger man, Petrino, to have more success down the stretch and to carry his power for the duration of the fight.

I expect this fight to hit the scorecards 67% of the time (+203 implied odds) and would bet both the Over 1.5 Rounds and the fight to reach a decision. Petrino can knock Prachnio out on the first exchange – and kill both bets – but I'm equally worried about Prachnio's cardio down the stretch against a younger pressure fighter.

Technically, I also show value on Prachnio to win by decision (projected +412, listed +600), but I would prefer to include that bet – if at all – in a round-robin.

Bets

• Fight Goes To Decision (+310, 0.1u) at FanDuel
• Over 1.5 Rounds (+115, 0.25u) at WynnBet

Jimmy Crute vs. Alonzo Menifield

Crowdsourced Projections: Jimmy Crute (58.9%)

I wrote about this fight before UFC 284 – and projected Jimmy Crute as a 61.6% favorite in that matchup.

I noted Crute's return from an ACL tear, his age advantage, and his propensity for shooting takedowns at a high clip (he landed six of 12 against Alonzo Menifield).

Crute remains eight years younger than his opponent, and at the UFC level, the younger man wins those matchups 67.8% of the time at average odds of -131 (56.8% implied), about 11% over expectation.

Of the two fighters, Crute is likelier to have improved in the past six months. And his style seemed more reliable in the first matchup, exhausting Menifield down the stretch.

Menifield has strong judo, can deny takedowns in the first round, and looks to finish opponents early (12 of 13 wins in the first six minutes of his fights). He has a clear power advantage in this matchup but lost the first round of the first fight beyond a late knockdown.

As in the first iteration of this fight, Menfield to win in Round 1 (+420 by FanDuel) is a worthy consideration while Crute makes a better live bet after Round 1 since he should take over down the stretch as Menifield tires.

For the first booking, the fight was listed at +120 to the Over 1.5 Rounds and +300 to go the distance, and it still managed to go the full 15 minutes even with a hectic pace.

We could see a more measured pace this time, and I don't think the odds have adjusted enough relative to the first iteration.

I see value in both Jimmy Crute and the Over, and I placed a same game parlay (+210) with Crute and Over 1.5 Rounds, in addition to betting Crute to win by decision (+550).

Bets

• SGP (+210, 0.25u) at DraftKings: Jimmy Crute & Over 1.5 Rounds
• Jimmy Crute Wins by Decision (+550, 0.1u) at DraftKings
• Jimmy Crute Live after Round 1

Yazmin Jauregui vs. Denise Gomes

Crowdsourced Projections: Yazmin Jauregui (75%)

Many analysts think that Yazmin Jauregui is a future champion in the strawweight division. The 24-year-old has excellent boxing, strong takedown defense, and elite cardio and output.

Denise Gomes might have the power advantage, but Jauregui likely has the offensive grappling upside, even though she hasn't attempted a takedown in the UFC.

This could end up being a high-paced striking affair between two solid, young prospects, but the fight is suspiciously lined at +108 to end inside the distance in a division with a 66.7% decision rate. Combined, these fighters have seen 13 of their 19 professional bouts end by finish; however, those regional finish rates tend to shrink once fighters reach the highest level of MMA.

Unless Jauregui grapples in this matchup – and has success doing so – it's hard to make her such a significant favorite in what otherwise appears to be a striker vs. striker matchup.

Ultimately, I don't see value in this fight from any perspective, and I will pass on betting on this matchup. Gomes by decision (projected +567, listed +600) was the only wager that became a potential consideration.

Bets

• Pass

Tatsuro Taira vs. Edgar Chairez

Crowdsourced Projections: Tatsuro Taira (90.4%) 

Tatsuro Taira was supposed to face Brazilian prospect Kleydson Rodriguez just a couple of weeks ago but will draw short-notice debutant Edgar Chairez at a 130-pound catchweight fight.

Taira, arguably the best Japanese prospect since Kyoji Horiguchi, is 13-0 with 10 finishes, including a pair of submission wins in the UFC. He is an adept back-taker who regularly holds opponents in dominant positions and switches sides until he can sink in a choke.

Chairez has a decent offensive submission game but seems overmatched defensively against superior grapplers, which could lead to a quick night against Taira.

I projected Taira's submission line at -211 and his finish prop at -311. I would bet up to -250 (71.6% implied) at a 2% edge compared to my number. However, the best available price is -280 at DraftKings.

I do project this bout to end inside the distance 82% of the time (-444 implied odds), slightly more often than the market expects.

Still, it's difficult to bet on time props for this fight because Taira could opt to strike early and show off his kicking game before eventually shooting for a takedown and looking to grapple. And whether Taira can lock in a submission depends more on Chairez's urgency to get out of that position than Taira's aggression to finish from that spot.

I would never bet a Round 1 prop at around a pick'em price, but Taira's odds to win in Round 2 (+370) aren't particularly appealing either.

I would consider betting the Under 1.5, parlaying the fight to end inside the distance, or parlaying Taira to win inside the distance for this matchup. DraftKings has – by far – the best price on the bout to end inside the distance (-360), and I used that line with two of my other favorite parlay pieces on the card.

Bets

• Parlay (+100, 0.5u) at DraftKings: Chairez vs. Taira, Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-360) & Nickal vs. Wodburn, Under 1.5 Rounds (-425) & Alexander Volkanovski (-380)

Robbie Lawler vs. Niko Price

Crowdsourced Projections: Niko Price (64.2%)

The UFC doesn't always hand their legends winnable matchups in retirement fights, but I think 41-year-old  "Ruthless" Robbie Lawler has a shot at going out on a high note against 33-year-old Niko Price, who has seemed equally shopworn in his recent bouts.

I alluded to the age angles earlier – and am betting against those trends in this matchup. But I can't help but feel like Price, who is 1-3-1 in his past four bouts, has looked slow and old on the heels of multiple knee surgeries and countless wars throughout his career.

Lawler, who is 1-5-1 in his past six bouts with his only win over an aged Nick Diaz fighting for the first time in six years, figures to land on the very hittable price (48% striking defense) who might be happy to oblige Lawler in a brawl.

Price likely has the grappling advantage and could probably hit takedowns against Lawler (64% takedown defense). Still, he gave another legend – Cowboy Cerrone – a high-paced striking battle just a few years ago, and I'd imagine that Price has enough respect for Lawler to slug this one out too.

Lawler should be the better technician in a brawl and offer better defense, even if his hand speed has slipped a touch. And he might have the better offensive-kicking game too.

Aside from pure age on paper and Price's grappling advantage, it isn't easy to justify Lawler as a big underdog in the type of stylistic matchup which should suit him.

I projected Lawler closer to +180; bet his moneyline down to that projected line.

Bets

• Robbie Lawler (+194, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +180)

Bo Nickal vs. Val Woodburn

Crowdsourced Projections: Bo Nickal (91.5%)

The top prospect in MMA, Bo Nickal, was supposed to face Tresean Gore at UFC 290 but will instead draw undefeated Valentine Woodburn as a short-notice debutant.

Nickal's entire four-fight professional career has lasted 321 seconds while Woodburn has won his last two bouts via decision.

Nickal still has a ton of question marks to answer as a fighter: how his striking looks in extended exchanges, how his cardio holds up over 15 to 25 minutes, and whether he can absorb a big shot from an opponent – or recover if he's wobbled.

That's a lot of unanswered questions for the most significant betting favorite in MMA history.

He is an elite athlete and figures to pose significant problems for a middleweight division light on grapplers, but most of Nickal's skillset and MMA attributes – aside from pure wrestling – are still to be determined.

He should be the more prominent man against the thick 5-foot-8 Woodburn, who has competed at light heavyweight, but I'm curious to see if Nickal tries to show off his striking in his fourth appearance under the promotional banner after three dominant submission victories.

I projected Nickal's submission line at -170 and his knockout prop at +337; as a result, I set his odds to win inside the distance at -265; and there's no winning method prop offering value.

Nickal is juiced to around -450 to win in Round 1, but you're better off playing the Under 1.5 Rounds (-450) and getting the extra 2.5 minutes for either fighter to finish if you're going that route.

You can get a very cheap price on the Over 0.5 rounds (-175) and hope that Nickal looks to gain cage time – and strike for a bit in this matchup – or at least face some grappling resistance. For context, the Crute vs. Menifield fight is -400 to end inside the distance but -600 to last Over 0.5 Rounds.

For round-robin purposes, you could do worse than Nickal to win in Round 2 (+750) or to win by TKO/KO (+280); and that's generally how I'd prefer to bet on this fight – for small stakes at plus money – or to use the Under 1.5 Rounds in a parlay.

Bets

• Pass

Jalin Turner vs. Dan Hooker

Crowdsourced Projections: Jalin Turner (71.7%)

Jalin Turner is on a mission to take out the entire Australian and New Zealand MMA scene, with finishes over Josh Culibao, Jamie Mullarkey and Brad Riddell already on his resume.

The large lightweight came in a couple of pounds over the 155-pound limit on Friday, and it's a wonder that Turner can fight in the weight class at all, standing 6-foot-3 with a 77-inch reach. Both Turner and Hooker (6-foot-1, 75-inch reach) typically have a size advantage at 155 pounds, and both will see rare size parity in the other on Saturday.

That might be to Hooker's advantage; Turner has porous striking defense (43%), but smaller opponents can rarely capitalize and land head strikes because they have to do a lot of work to get inside the pocket against him.

Still, Turner is the younger man – both in age and fight years. Hooker has been through several wars and has seemingly slowed to the point where he made a regrettable decision to move down to 145 pounds, where Arnold Allen quickly finished him.

Hooker's once-legendary chin has seemingly cracked, and it seems likely that Turner can put him on skates – or threaten a deep submission – at some point early in this fight.

"The Tarantula" is one of the most dangerous fighters at 155-pounds with a 100% finish rate – but he's a bit of a glass cannon too (three knockout losses), and cutting all that weight to make 155 takes a toll on his gas tank. He has a well-rounded game, and his only significant deficiency is takedown defense; that's something Hooker can exploit, particularly as both fighters tire.

If Turner doesn't finish the fight early, Hooker should be able to make this a close and competitive bar brawl, where he lands knees in the clinch and looks to drag Turner to the mat.

Overall, I expect a hectic pace – particularly early – and for both fighters to find openings to hurt their opponent, if not finish the fight.

I don't see value on either side of the moneyline. Still, I would lean toward Turner inside the distance (projected -156, listed -160) or by KO/TKO (projected +179, listed +195) in the winning method market. And I certainly prefer those props to his moneyline.

I do like the Unders in this matchup, however, setting the fight to end inside the distance 75% of the time (-302 implied odds). Bet the Under 1.5 Rounds to -110 or the Under 2.5 Rounds to -220.

Bets

• Under 1.5 Rounds (-104, 0.25u) at FanDuel
• Under 2.5 Rounds (-220, 0.25u) at DraftKings

Robert Whittaker vs. Dricus du Plessis

Crowdsourced Projections: Robert Whittaker (76.1%)

Aside from champion Israel Adesanya, Robert Whittaker has separated himself from the rest of the middleweight division – similar to how Max Holloway has formed his own tier just below Alexander Volkanovski at featherweight.

Whittaker's patient style could prove a difficult test for rising contender Dricus du Plessis, an aggressive pressure fighter with a well-rounded skillset. Whittaker is the far more technical fighter, but du Plessis is more physical, hits harder, and potentially carries more finishing upside in this matchup.

Whittaker, who used to compete at welterweight, should be the faster man. But du Plessis is bigger (one-inch taller, three-inch reach advantage) and a good enough wrestler and grappler to force Whittaker to keep this fight standing.

Both fighters seem durable, but in the context of their careers, I would likely give du Plessis the durability edge. Whittaker has the better cardio; the question is to what degree.

Du Plessis typically starts breathing heavily midway through his fights, but he rarely slows down; his foot stays on the gas pedal for the duration of his bouts. Moreover, du Plessis recently underwent sinus surgery to repair that breathing issue, which might help his overall gas tank and effectiveness down the stretch of this fight.

Whittaker needs to play matador against the South African and use his speed and footwork to avoid the explosive attacks from Dricus – and land counters before exiting those exchanges. Whittaker is the superior fighter, but du Plessis can close the skill gap with physicality and power. If Whittaker can't wrestle successfully, this fight should be closer than the betting odds indicate.

I don't see value on either side of the moneyline for this matchup.

However, I expect the fight to reach a decision 41% of the time (+141 implied odds), and you can find value on that prop as high as +172 at FanDuel.

Additionally, I think Whittaker should have more decision equity – and Du Plessis more finish equity – relative to the current prices on their winning method props.

Bet Whittaker to win by decision (projected +192, listed +240) at +200 or better.

Bets

• Robert Whittaker wins by Decision (+240, 0.25u) at DraftKings

Brandon Moreno vs. Alexandre Pantoja

Crowdsourced Projections: Brandon Moreno (59.6%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of Saturday's co-main event and flyweight title bout, check out Brandon Moreno vs. Alexandre Pantoja preview from my colleague, Dan Tom.

Like Dan, I prefer Pantoja in this trilogy fight, but I would rather bet his finish props than play his moneyline straight up. Back Pantoja to win inside the distance at +300 or better (projected +280), and sprinkle his odds to win in Round 1 (+1200) and Round 2 (+1700).

Although Pantoja won a dominant decision in his second matchup with Moreno, he's never been past the 15-minute mark in his professional career. Moreno, the younger man with five-round experience, will seemingly have the cardio advantage in the championship rounds.

Pantoja essentially won the striking exchanges in their previous matchups. Still, Moreno's boxing has improved substantially over the past five years. I expect the striking – when both men are fresh – to be competitive, with Moreno's three-inch reach advantage potentially proving the difference.

Pantoja should have the grappling advantage – and could find ways to dominant positions quickly, even though Moreno is the better wrestler. Pantoja is one of the best back-take artists in the sport and extremely dangerous from that position (eight rear-naked chokes or neck cranks on his resume).

If he finds his way to Moreno's back early, when both men are dry, Pantoja can finish the fight quickly and secure UFC gold.

If Pantoja doesn't finish the fight within 10 minutes, the momentum should start to swing drastically in Moreno's direction. And you can look to live bet the champion after Rounds 2 and 3, when Pantoja's effectiveness should dissipate.

The fight should be competitive enough through two rounds that you might be able to bet Pantoja pre-fight and hedge out with Moreno live after 10 minutes.

Moreno's elite cardio and durability give him a very high floor as a champion. Still, he'll need to navigate some dangerous moments against a lethal submission artist early on in this fight – and I think the prices are juicy enough that taking shots on Pantoja is justifiable.

You can also bet the fight to end inside the distance to -110.

Bets

• Alexandre Pantoja wins Inside the Distance (+350, 0.25u) at DraftKings
• Alexandre Pantoja wins in Round 1 (+1200, 0.05u) at WynnBet
• Alexandre Paontoja wins in Round 2 (+1700, 0.05u) at WynnBet
• Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-105, 0.25u) at DraftKings
• Brandon Moreno Live after Rounds 2 and 3

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Yair Rodriguez

Crowdsourced Projections: Alexander Volkanovski (80.4%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of Saturday’s main event and featherweight title bout, check out my full Alexander Volkanovski vs. Yair Rodriguez fight preview.

In short, I projected Volkanovski as a -411 favorite (80.4% implied odds) in this matchup, and I would bet his moneyline at -363 (78.4% implied) or better or include him as a parlay piece up to -386.

If you’re betting on the underdog, I would rather play Rodriguez inside the distance (+450) than bet on his moneyline. Volkanovski is the vastly superior minute-winner in the fight.

Lastly, keep an eye on the live betting markets; I would add more on the Volkanovski side if you can find a better live price than the pre-fight line, especially if he hasn’t started implementing the wrestling by then.

Bets

• Alexander Volkanovski live anytime (better price than pre-fight)

UFC 290 Bets

Moneyline Bets

• Shannon Ross (+125, 0.5u) at WynnBet
• Robbie Lawler (+194, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +180)

Prop Bets and Totals

• Shannon Ross wins by Decision (+450, 0.1u) at DraftKings
• Marcin Prachnio vs. Victor Petrino, Over 1.5 Rounds (+115, 0.25u) at WynnBet
• Marcin Prachnio vs. Victor Petrino, Fight Goes To Decision (+310, 0.1u) at FanDuel
• Jimmy Crute wins by Decision (+550, 0.1u) at DraftKings
• Hooker vs. Turner, Under 1.5 Rounds (-104, 0.25u) at FanDuel
• Hooker vs. Turner, Under 2.5 Rounds (-220, 0.25u) at DraftKings
• Robert Whittaker wins by Decision (+240, 0.25u) at DraftKings
• Alexandre Pantoja wins Inside the Distance (+350, 0.25u) at DraftKings
• Alexandre Pantoja wins in Round 1 (+1200, 0.05u) at WynnBet
• Alexandre Paontoja wins in Round 2 (+1700, 0.05u) at WynnBet
• Moreno vs. Pantoja, Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-105, 0.25u) at DraftKings

Parlays

• Parlay (+100, 0.5u) at DraftKings: Chairez vs. Taira, Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-360) & Nickal vs. Wodburn, Under 1.5 Rounds (-425) & Alexander Volkanovski (-380)
• Parlay (-170, 0.25u) at Caesars: Nickal vs. Wodburn, Under 1.5 Rounds (-400) & Alexander Volkanovski (-370)
• Parlay (-200, 0.5u) at Caesars : Cameron Saaiman (-550) & Alexander Volkanovski (-370)
• SGP (+210, 0.25u) at DraftKings: Jimmy Crute & Over 1.5 Rounds

Live Bets

• Esteban Ribovics Live after Round 1
• Jimmy Crute Live after Round 1
• Brandon Moreno Live after Rounds 2 and 3
• Alexander Volkanovski Live Anytime (better price than pre-fight)