UFC 291 Parlays: This All-Submission Parlay Pays More Than 20-1 (Saturday, July 29)

UFC 291 Parlays: This All-Submission Parlay Pays More Than 20-1 (Saturday, July 29) article feature image

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC welterweight Jake Matthews of Australia

For many MMA fans, fight night wouldn't be complete without a UFC 291 parlay or two to sweat.

UFC 291 takes place Saturday at Delta Center in Salt Lake City. Following prelims on ESPN+ (7 p.m. ET) and then ABC and ESPN (8 p.m. ET), the five-fight main card kicks off on ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET.

With 11 fights in all, UFC 291 parlay options are plentiful. And I've put together a traditional parlay, as well as a same game parlay (SGP), for tonight's big UFC 291 card.

Let's dig into those parlays for tonight's Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 fight card.

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UFC 291 Parlay

Having a long-term outlook in sports betting is the profitable route, but when a UFC pay-pay-view is this good, a parlay that pays better than 20-1 is undoubtedly the most fun way to sweat the action.

My usual all-violence parlay here at Action Network has turned into an all-submission parlay this week.

For me, that's where the most value lies for Saturday's fight card.

Leg 1: Miranda Maverick by submission (+210)

Priscilla Cachoeria is a dangerous striker, but I don’t think she will get an extended chance at landing the fight-ending shot in this one. Miranda Maverick will not hesitate in getting this fight to where she wants it, which just happens to coincide with Cachoeira’s biggest weakness: her defensive grappling.

Maverick has landed multiple takedowns in her last three victories in the UFC, and that will be the game plan here.

I expect the submission opening to present itself at some point in this bout as Cachoeira tires out in the grappling exchanges.

Leg 2: Jake Matthews by submission (+220)

UFC vet Jake Matthews will welcome newcomer Darrius Flowers to the high-altitude of the UFC main roster in Salt Lake City.

Flowers is clearly live for a KO, having notched seven KO/TKO finishes in his last 10 victories. Matthews deciding to stand and trade strikes would be a major mistake in this spot, as his durability is waning now 17 fights into his UFC career.

Flowers has four submission losses prior to entering the UFC, and once you add in the fact his cardio and defensive grappling were already in question, it will be even more difficult for him to avoid mistakes on the mat as the fight progresses.

Leg 3: Gabriel Bonfim by submission (+125)

Gabriel Bonfim is an explosive young prospect who prefers to finish his opponents on the mat with eight submission victories in his last 10 bouts. His opponent, Trevin Giles, doesn’t possess the striking output or cardio to test the undefeated fighter over the course of 15 minutes.

I expect the opportunistic Bonfim to implement his grappling in order to force the mistake-prone Giles into an error on the ground. It may take a few minutes longer than usual for the better of the Bonfim brothers, but another signature submission is on the horizon.

Pick: UFC 291 All-Submission Parlay (+2132)

UFC 291 Same Game Parlay

While being admittedly uncomfortable fading one of the most dangerous strikers the UFC has seen in recent memory in Alex Pereira, being able to correlate Jan Blachowicz’s path to victory in the way of a parlay creates a juicy payout I simply cannot pass up.

When creating same-game parlays on DraftKings, you must construct them with the mindset you will be correct in your read on how the fight will play out.

If Blachowicz is going to win on Saturday night, it is unlikely he is going to test his kickboxing skills and KO the former middleweight champion early. Rather, testing Pereira’s takedown defense in a similar manner to how he was able to defeat Israel Adensanya is much more appropriate.

If Blachowicz is successful in dragging this fight to the mat, I don’t expect it to be a cakewalk in locking in a submission. His opponent is under the tutelage of Glover Texeira. Thus, prioritizing position over submission to wear down Pereira will have the fight extend into the second round.

The more time the fight is on the ground, the less likely it is that the power of either man will come into play. Thus, I’ll assume that neither man lands a strike that puts down his opponent.

Playing this exact path for Blachowicz doesn’t really make sense without adding in his moneyline. We can comfortably assume if he is able to dictate where and how the fight plays out, he will get his hand raised in the co-main event Saturday night.

Thus, my UFC 291 same game parlay is:

  • Jan Blachowicz moneyline (3way)
  • Tie – Most knockdowns
  • Jan Blachowicz – most takedowns
  • Over 1.5 total rounds

UFC 291 SGP with Jan Blachowicz: +450 (DraftKings)

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