UFC 293 Odds: Betting Picks, Previews, Predictions for All 12 Fights (Saturday, September 9)
Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC middleweight champion Israel Adesanya and Sean Strickland
The UFC 293 odds board tonight features a main event of middleweight champion Israel Adesanya vs. Sean Strickland, as well as a co-main event of heavyweights Tai Tuivasa vs. Alexander Volkov.
Below, I've made my UFC 293 picks and have put together all 12 fight breakdowns from Saturday's event at Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia.
The UFC 293 preliminary card begins at 6:30 p.m. ET (3:30 p.m. PT) on ESPN+ before moving to ESPNews at 8 p.m. ET for additional prelims. Then the five-fight UFC 293 main card will commence on ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET.
After examining all betting options, a typical UFC card can offer substantial actionable value.
So, in addition to moneylines and over/unders, I'll break down how I plan to bet every fight on the UFC 293 fight card, including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether or not the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.
Fight times are approximate and subject to change. All times ET.
UFC 293 Projected Odds
Below, you can find my fair odds moneyline projection for each of Saturday's 12 bouts. In the next section, you'll discover forecasts for those fights to finish inside the distance or for each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission.
Odds as of Saturday afternoon and via DraftKings.
UFC 293 Prop Projections
In addition to creating a crowdsourced projection for moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission, enabling us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance or for each fighter to win inside of the distance.
UFC 293 Odds
Kevin Jousset vs. Kiefer Crosbie
|Kevin Jousset Odds||-180|
|Kiefer Crosbie Odds||+150|
|Over/under rounds||2.5 (+110 / -140)|
Crowdsourced Projections: Kevin Jousset (59.8%)
A pair of debutants will open Saturday's UFC 293 card in Sydney as City Kickboxing's Kevin "Air" Jousset faces SBG Ireland's Kiefer "Big Daddy" Crosbie in a welterweight bout.
Jousset is the taller and longer athlete (three inches taller with a five-inch reach advantage) but has faced a lower level of competition throughout his career.
However, it is worth noting that, aside from Conor McGregor and Ian Garry, Irish athletes have lost their past 10 UFC debuts.
While I don't project value on either a side or a total in this matchup, I do expect the French-born Jousset to win a decision – with the Sydney crowd behind him – more often than the betting odds suggest (projected +234, listed +350 at FanDuel).
Allocate a small wager to Jousset's decision prop (at +260 or better) for the first bout on Saturday's card.
Shane Young vs. Gabriel Miranda
|149.75-Pound Catchweight Bout||Odds|
|Shane Young Odds||-115|
|Gabriel Miranda Odds||-105|
|Over/under rounds||2.5 (+114 / -145)|
Crowdsourced Projections: Shane Young (54.1%)
Shane Young was the only fighter to miss weight on Friday and came in nearly four pounds over the featherweight limit. He'll forfeit 30% of his purse to opponent Gabriel Miranda, who may look like the bigger man (three inches taller) anyway.
A bad weight cut could further dissipate Young's already suspect chin, which has seen him wobble or drop in several fights, and limit what might be his best weapon and biggest advantage over Miranda: cardio.
Young's likeliest path to victory in this matchup would come down the stretch, but a lousy weight cut could eliminate that possibility.
Miranda is the superior grappler and a relatively easy play at plus money. Still, his moneyline price has dropped drastically since Young's weight miss, moving from an average of +130 (43.5% implied) to +115 (46.5% implied) – a 3% adjustment since weigh-ins – at the time of this writing.
Alternatively, you could consider betting the fight to reach a decision (projected +128, listed +150 at FanDuel) or Young by decision (projected +208, listed +230 at FanDuel) after the market correction.
- Gabriel Miranda (+145, 0.5u at Caesars)
Mike Mathetha vs. Charlie Radtke
|Mike Mathetha Odds||+260|
|Charlie Radtke Odds||-325|
|Over/under rounds||2.5 (+150 / -195)|
Crowdsourced Projections: Charlie Radtke (68.9%)
Mike Mathetha – aka "Blood Diamond" and a training partner and teammate of Israel Adesanya – will get his third (and potentially final) try at a UFC win on Saturday against Charlie Radtke, the CFFC welterweight champion.
Radtke, a former lightweight, is the smaller man in this matchup (two inches shorter, four-inch reach discrepancy) and may struggle to complete takedowns against a bigger, stronger fighter.
Diamond struggled with a pure grappler in Jeremiah Wells and a pure wrestler in Orion Cosce but might have more success defending takedowns against Radtke, the most undersized athlete of the three.
Radkte is well-rounded enough to keep the fight competitive – or potentially win the striking – even if he can't land takedowns. Still, he should mix things up against Mathetha, who has more of a pure kickboxing skillset.
That said, Radtke doesn't have the best cardio, either. And if he tries – and fails – to take down Diamond, he may gas himself out before the second half of the fight.
Take a small underdog shot on Mathetha – or Blood Diamond – depending on the book at +245 or better.
- Mike Mathetha (+260, 0.25u at Caesars)
Nasrat Haqparast vs. Landon Quinones
|Nasrat Haqparast Odds||-485|
|Landon Quinones Odds||+370|
|Over/under rounds||2.5 (-145 / +114)|
Crowdsourced Projections: Nasrat Haqparast (77.2%)
Landon Quinones, who lost via submission in under a minute on this season of The Ultimate Fighter, will make a short-notice debut against Nasrat Haqparast, who has previously struggled as a substantial favorite.
I often find Haqparast to be overrated relative to the betting market. He lost to Drew Dober as a -350 favorite and failed to separate from a debuting Rafa Garcia at a -500 price tag before dropping clear decisions to Daniel Hooker and Bobby Green as a slight underdog. I laid the juice against Haqparast in both fights.
Recently, Haqparast was out-struck at a distance (72-60) by John Makdessi, a fighter 10 years his senior.
Haqparast has a powerful left hand but just one finish at the UFC level. He seems slower compared to most lightweights and rarely grapples (1.2 takedown attempts per 15 minutes, 30% accuracy).
Haqparast's best skills are likely durability and cardio, but while he lands at a good clip, he doesn't push a particularly hard pace and seemingly fights to the level of his competition from one bout to the next.
While Haqparast should look to wrestle Quinones, he isn't reliable enough to do so, which could lead to a relatively close southpaw vs. southpaw striking fight in which Haqparast never comes close to justifying his steep price tag.
He either needs an early finish – or dominant grappling control – to justify his substantial favoritism in this spot.
I projected Quinones closer to +340 and would poke his moneyline at +370 or better. And we'll bet the fight to reach a decision up to -126 (projected -137).
- Landon Quinones (+380, 0.25u at Caesars)
- Fight Goes to Decision (-120, 0.25u at FanDuel)
Jamie Mullarkey vs. John Makdessi
|Jamie Mullarkey Odds||-298|
|John Makdessi Odds||+240|
|Over/under rounds||2.5 (-220 / +170)|
Crowdsourced Projections: Jamie Mullarkey (73.3%)
John Makdessi is the smaller (four inches shorter, six-inch reach discrepancy) and significantly older fighter in this matchup.
Where there is at least a nine-year age gap between UFC opponents, the younger fighter wins 71% of the time, at average odds closer to -138 (58.1% implied), roughly 13% above expectation.
Mullarkey is the more well-rounded fighter. He will look to mix his longer kicks and punches with level changes (8.3 takedown attempts per 15 minutes, 35% accuracy) and attempt to smother the smaller fighter.
Apart from the reach discrepancy, Makdessi can counter-wrestle (85% takedown defense) and look to get inside and box up Mullarkey, whose chin consistently betrays him at the worst moments.
While Makdessi has looked competitive in his recent bouts while outstriking both Ignacio Bahamondes and Nasrat Haqparast, he's been taking one fight a year for the past six years and is likely to return from a lengthy layoff at some point – either in this bout or his next – showing severe physical decline.
Mullarkey should be able to put a pace on the older fighter and eventually land takedowns if he is persistent. And while Makdessi is precise with his strikes – and Mullarkey needs to be mindful in the pocket – The Bull hasn't scored a knockout with his hands since 2015.
I like Mullarkey as a parlay piece up to -270 or better (projected -275), and we'll pair him with another hometown fighter on this card.
- Parlay (-110, 0.5u at WynnBet): Jamie Mullarkey (-260) & Carlos Ulberg (-265)
Jack Jenkins vs. Chepe Mariscal
|Jack Jenkins Odds||-205|
|Chepe Mariscal Odds||+170|
|Over/under rounds||2.5 (-215 / +165)|
Crowdsourced Projections: Jack Jenkins (66.1%)
Chepe Mariscal showed impressive durability and fight IQ in his UFC debut against the unique stylings of Trevor Peek – and proved that his regional strength of schedule, with fights against Gregor Gillespie, Bryce Mitchell, Pat Sabatini, and Youssef Zalal early in his career – prepared him for the big show.
Jack Jenkins has drawn many comparisons to early-career Alexander Volkanovski, and while he may not have the ceiling of a pound-for-pound fighter, Jenkins has a highly competent, well-rounded skill set.
Both fighters in this UFC 293 matchup should test one another in all facets of MMA in an exciting, high-paced bout.
Ultimately, I expect Mariscal to have the wrestling advantage while Jenkins inflicts more noticeable striking damage with his leg kicks. If Jenkins can land enough leg kicks early to destabilize Mariscal's movement, that should take enough out of Mariscal's takedown attempts to let Jenkins dictate where the fight occurs.
And if both fighters land takedowns at various points, I prefer Jenkins' offensive top game too.
Both featherweights are seemingly durable – and neither punches particularly hard relative to the 145-pound division. The likeliest path to a finish would seemingly be an attritional stoppage for Jenkins if he can repeatedly hammer Mariscal's legs.
I expect this fight to reach a decision about two-thirds of the time (-200 implied odds) and would bet that prop up to -183.
Additionally, you can consider betting Jenkins to win by decision (projected +116, listed +140 at FanDuel); Chepe may need to win rounds convincingly to beat the Victoria native on the road.
- Fight Goes to Decision (-160, 0.5u) at FanDuel
Carlos Ulberg vs. Da Woon Jung
|Light Heavyweight Bout||Odds|
|Carlos Ulberg Odds||-285|
|Da Woon Jung Odds||+230|
|Over/under rounds||1.5 (-115 / -115)|
Crowdsourced Projections: Carlos Ulberg (77.2%)
As of writing, Carlos Ulberg is my most substantial projected moneyline edge for any fighter at UFC 293, and as I indicated earlier in the writeup, I'm pairing him with Jamie Mullarkey in a parlay and would use his moneyline up to -330 (projected -339).
However, you can also place a straight bet on Ulberg to -303 (75.2% implied), at a 2% edge compared to my projection, or bet him to win by KO/TKO (projected -138, listed -125) or inside the distance (projected -162, listed -150) as alternative or additional options.
Ulberg should have a severe speed and technical advantage on the feet against Jung, who struggles with size parity at light heavyweight (aside from his quick win over Kennedy Nzechukwu) since he doesn't make the most of his length and prefers high-variance exchanges rather than point fighting.
Jung needs to mix in his wrestling to win this bout since Ulberg should mostly have him covered on the feet. Both fighters tend to gas out when pushed hard, and the combination of question marks surrounding Ulberg's defensive grappling and cardio gives me pause.
Jung is 4-2-1 in the UFC and still on the right side of the age curve (29) for the heavier weight classes. He's far from a pushover, but his career is trending in the wrong direction. Still, there's a chance he rights the ship and dominates Ulberg with his wrestling, as he did against William Knights (landed eight of nine takedowns, 12:04 control time), and reasserts himself within the division.
As a result, I don't want too much exposure to Ulberg – despite the projected edge; if he doesn't finish Jung in the first round, there's a chance that this fight becomes a sloppy coinflip.
There's a chance I may add a straight bet on Ulberg, but for now, I'll take up to -130 on Ulberg's knockout prop or -150 on his finish or inside-the-distance prop.
- Carlos Ulberg wins by KO/TKO (-125, Risk 0.5u at FanDuel)
Tyson Pedro vs. Anton Turkalj
|Light Heavyweight Bout||Odds|
|Tyson Pedro Odds||-108|
|Anton Turkalj Odds||-112|
|Over/under rounds||1.5 (-145 / +114)|
Crowdsourced Projections: Anton Turkalj (56.2%)
After a couple of cake matchups and set-up finishes against Harry Hunsucker (as a -800 favorite) and Isaac Villanueva (at -625), Tyson Pedro was fraud-checked as a -250 favorite against Modestas Bukauskas in his last bout. He should have a difficult test finishing the extremely durable Anton Turkalj.
Pedro had a significant size advantage over Hunsucker and Villanueva. Still, both Bukauskaus and Turkalj present size parity, and Turkalj, in particular, will push a crazy pace (averages nearly 14 takedown attempts per 15 minutes).
Pedro might be the more skilled fighter everywhere in this matchup for the first four or five minutes. Although I don't love his striking, his leg kicks should be effective, and he may be the more skilled grappler.
Still, Pedro has limited cardio before his effectiveness wanes, and from that point forward, Turkalj should take over.
"The Pleasure Man" gets wobbled or hurt in nearly all of his fights, but his recoverability is as good as any fighter in the sport, and he'll continue to press forward – and put a pace on Pedro until he breaks him.
I projected Turkalj as a -128 favorite in this fight and would bet his moneyline at -120 or better. Additionally, I would add more live after Round 1; Pedro has never won a fight past the five-minute mark.
I don't see any value concerning the total or winning method props. However, I would lean to Turkalj Round 2 and Round 3 props or a same-game parlay with Turkalj and the Over 1.5 Rounds (+195) to get on the plus-money side of things and encompass most of his win condition.
- Anton Turkalj (-107, 0.5u at BetRivers)
- Anton Turkalj Live after Round 1
Justin Tafa vs. Austen Lane
|Justin Tafa Odds||-198|
|Austen Lane Odds||+164|
|Over/under rounds||1.5 (+175 / -230)|
Crowdsourced Projections: Justin Tafa (62.5%)
This heavyweight bout is a rematch from a Fight Night card in June that ended as a no-contest via accidental eye-poke 30 seconds into the first round.
I projected Tafa as a 62.6% favorite in the first fight – essentially the same line I made for the rematch while pulling new projection data from the same data sources.
Tafa closed around -190 for the first fight – and subsequently knocked out Parker Porter, whom his brother Junior also beat a couple of weeks ago – and is now sitting closer to -215 in the rematch with Lane, an increase of nearly 3% in implied win probability despite 66 seconds of additional fight time while hitting the same win condition he has continually met in the past (early knockout).
Lane is the bigger and better athlete (a six-inch advantage in both height and reach), but Tafa is the far more dangerous striker with swift and powerful hands.
— UFC (@ufc) September 8, 2023
Still, his game falls apart when Tafa can't put opponents away early, and his fights extend.
Tafa has subpar cardio and zero grappling ability and can get outpaced by more active opponents over 15 minutes.
Given the price adjustment relative to the first booking, bet Lane pre-fight at +175 or better (projected +167) and look to add more live after Round 1.
- Austen Lane (+186, 0.5u at FanDuel)
- Austen Lane Live after Round 1
Manel Kape vs. Felipe dos Santos
|Manel Kape Odds||-425|
|Felipe dos Santos Odds||+330|
|Over/under rounds||2.5 (+165 / -215)|
Crowdsourced Projections: Manel Kape (79%)
Manel Kape is one of the most exciting flyweights on the UFC roster but has seen five of his past six scheduled bookings in the past two years fall through.
"Starboy" was initially supposed to face Kai Kara-France on Saturday but will instead draw a short-notice debutant in Felipe dos Santos, a fiery 22-year-old sporting the familiar bleach blond hair from the Brazilian Chute Box camp.
Dos Santos wouldn't be the first UFC newcomer from Chute Box to pull off a significant upset this year. Elves Brener cashed in his first two UFC bouts in February and July as a +400 to +500 underdog marketwide in either bout.
Additionally, teammate Allan Nascimento fought to a split decision as a +300 underdog at UFC 267 in 2021 and cashed as a +180 underdog last year.
And Daniel "Willycat" Santos has become one of the best action fighters at bantamweight in a short period.
The Chute Box fighters continually overperform – and thrill – at the UFC level. All exhibit incredible aggression, output and recoverability, alongside their striking hair color.
Compared to his teammates, dos Santos may be a bit too green for the UFC level – and he's likely at a strength disadvantage compared to Kape, an elite athlete seven years his senior and in his physical prime.
Anyone else notice Manel Kape practicing the switch stance flying knee during his warm up then perfectly executing it during the fight minutes later? pic.twitter.com/A5VtlQ9HXa
— MMA Gone Wild🥋 (@mmagonewild) August 9, 2021
The primary issue with Kape's fighting style is a lack of output. He has speedy hands and powerful punches but can often get caught staring at his opponents for long stretches, looking for the perfect opportunity to counter.
Dos Santos might be able to force him to fight at a higher pace than Kape is accustomed to – which could lead to dos Santos getting quickly clipped and finished or potentially forcing Kape into an uncomfortable pace with which he gasses out down the stretch.
Generally, I'm happy to take shots against Kape with fighters who can push a pace, but I'm hesitant with dos Santos due to the short-notice nature and severe jump in competition.
If dos Santos can push a pace for 15 minutes and survive Kape's wicked combinations, I'd expect a close and competitive decision, which may go his way as a big underdog.
From a pre-fight perspective, I don't project value on either side, the total, or any winning method props.
However, I'd keep an eye on the live markets and consider an entry on the pace-pushing dos Santos after Round 1 – likely at an even juicier number than his pre-fight moneyline.
- Felipe dos Santos Live after Round 1
Tai Tuivasa vs. Alexander Volkov
|Tai Tuivasa Odds||+185|
|Alexander Volkov Odds||-225|
|Over/under rounds||1.5 (-115 / -115)|
Crowdsourced Projections: Alexander Volkov (69.5%)
For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of Saturday's co-main event, check out the full Tuivasa vs. Volkov fight preview from my colleague Dan Tom.
I don't see value concerning either side of the moneyline; Volkov is the taller and longer fighter (five inches in both departments), and he should be able to carve up Tuivasa from a distance with long, straight punches and teep kicks to the body.
Tuivasa will look to crash the pocket and land powerful hooks and overhands to close the show, but his recklessness could get him countered by "Drago" or allow the Russian to shoot a rate takedown. Volkov should have a severe grappling advantage if this fight hits the mat.
Although Volkov has scored knockout wins against his past two opponents, I still view him as more of a point fighter or volume puncher who puts attritional damage on opponents rather than loading up on any individual shot.
Perhaps his win over Jairzinho Rozenstuik dispels some of that assumption, and Tuivasa and Rozenstruik have comparable styles and skill sets.
I expect Volkov vs. Tuivasa to play out similar to Tuivasa's fight with Ciryl Gane – where Volkov controls most of the action and puts attritional damage on Tuivasa. At the same time, Tai has a couple of big moments. Gane had one half-hearted takedown attempt in that fight but did get knocked down; I'm curious to see whether Volkov grapples more proactively.
I expect this fight to reach a decision 30% of the time (+229 implied odds) and see value concerning both the decision prop and the "over 1.5 rounds" at a pick'em price.
Tuivasa tends to wear down in the second half of his fights, and Volkov will repeatedly look to hit his body, where he is far less durable than his head.
Unless Tuivasa knocks him out first, I'd expect Volkov to win by an attritional third-round stoppage or a wide decision.
Bet this fight to reach the halfway mark, and consider poking the distance prop at +250 or better.
- Over 1.5 Rounds (-110, 0.5u at Betway)
Israel Adesanya vs. Sean Strickland
|Israel Adesanya Odds||-675|
|Sean Strickland Odds||+490|
|Over/under rounds||4.5 (+110 / -140)|
Crowdsourced Projections: Israel Adesanya (82.8%)
For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of Saturday's main event and middleweight title bout, check out my Israel Adesanya vs. Sean Strickland preview.
By the numbers, Strickland seems like the fighter who could outpace Adesanya in a 25-minute fight. Strickland's forward pressure should force Adesanya to stay on the back foot, and he should land more head strikes based on typical shot selection, which could provide superior optics for the cageside judges.
Still, Adesanya excels at countering overzealous opponents, and he should find openings to hammer Strickland with kicks at all three levels.
While it is difficult to make a fighter a significant favorite when the underdog possesses the offensive grappling upside, I still projected Adesanya as a -482 favorite (82.8% implied odds) in this matchup, and I would need +500 or better to consider betting Sean Strickland on the moneyline.
Strickland has the tools – pace, pressure, and output – to steal a close decision against Adesanya in a pure kickboxing match. And if he fights smart, Strickland might be able to land takedowns and gain top time to swing any 50-50 rounds in his favor.
I am surprised, however, to find the goes the distance prop at plus money. Both men are durable, with excellent cardio and solid submission defense. Aside from a flash head or body kick knockout from the champion, I don't foresee this matchup ending inside the distance consistently.
Bet the Over 4.5 rounds or Goes to Decsion prop at plus money, and wait for Strickland's monyline to blow out beyond +500 to back the underdog.
- Fight Goes to Decision (+125, 0.25u at Caesars)
UFC 293 Bets
- Gabriel Miranda (+145, 0.5u) at Caesars
- Mike Mathetha (+260, 0.25u) at Caesars
- Landon Quinones (+380, 0.25u) at Caesars
- Anton Turkalj (-110, 0.5u) at DraftKings
- Austen Lane (+186, 0.5u) at FanDuel
Prop Bets and Totals
- Kevin Jousset wins by Decision (+350, 0.2u at Fanduel)
- Haqparast/Quinones, Fight Goes to Decision (-120, 0.25u at FanDuel)
- Carlos Ulberg wins by KO/TKO (-125, Risk 0.5u at FanDuel)
- Jenkins/Mariscal, Fight Goes to Decision (-160, 0.5u at FanDuel)
- Tuivasa/Volkov, Over 1.5 Rounds (-106, 0.5u at FanDuel)
- Adesanya/Strickland, Fight Goes to Decision (+125, 0.25u at Caesars)
- Parlay (-110, 0.5u) at WynnBet: Jamie Mullarkey (-260) & Carlos Ulberg (-265)
- Anton Turkalj Live after Round 1
- Austin Lane Live after Round 1
- Felipe dos Santos Live after Round 1