UFC 296 Parlays: The +350 SGP Bet for Colby Covington Backers (Saturday, December 16)
Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC welterweight Colby Covington
For many MMA fans, fight night wouldn't be complete without a UFC 296 parlay bet or two to sweat.
UFC 296 takes place on Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Following prelims on ESPN+ (6:30 p.m. ET) and then ESPN2 (8 p.m. ET), the five-fight UFC 296 main card kicks off on ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET (cost: $79.99).
With 12 fights in all, UFC 296 parlay betting options are plentiful for fight night. And I've put together a traditional parlay, as well as a same game parlay (SGP), for Saturday's big year-end fight card.
Let's dig into those parlays for the Edwards vs. Covington pay-per-view event.
(Use the Action Network’s DraftKings promo code to get a signup bonus when betting on UFC 296 tonight.)
UFC 296 Parlay
UFC 296 is loaded with intriguing matchups that should provide an entertaining end to the year.
As always, I have analyzed the card and found three bouts in which I expect the fight to finish inside the distance, either by knockout or submission.
I will be targeting the three fighters below and parlaying them together for a better than 7-to-1 payout. Let’s dive in.
Parlay Leg 1: Andre Fili by Finish +165
This fight undoubtedly comes with a high level of volatility, and the confidence in Andre Fili at chalk should be justifiably low. W
With that said, Fili has faced an extremely difficult strength of schedule over his last seven fights and has shown the willingness to grapple when necessary.
His 2.2 takedowns per 15 minutes doesn’t jump off the page, but it at least displays that Fili has the ability to exploit Lucas Almeida’s 40% takedown defense.
I expect Fili to take the path of least resistance by taxing Almeida’s cardio in the grappling realm and testing his submission defense. If Fili can avoid a firefight on the feet in the early going, +165 for a finish will seem like a tremendous value.
Parlay Leg 2: Paddy Pimblett by Finish +110
Tony Ferguson is about to turn 40 and has dropped six consecutive fights. Father Time has caught up with the MMA legend, and now he has to take on somebody more than 10 years his youth.
Paddy Pimblett has had more than a full year off at this point, and it is fair to expect some improvement. Pimblett will be hungry to find a finish after a lackluster performance his last time out that really had people questioning if he was worth the hype.
Ferguson has been finished in four of his last six bouts, with both his chin and submission defense waning significantly. Pimblett should not be lined at just +110 to find a finish here.
Parlay Leg 3: Shavkat Rakhmanov by Finish -175
Shavkat Rakhmanov averages only 1.5 takedowns per 15 minutes in his UFC career, but he is going to pursue them early and often against Stephen Thompson.
The exciting welterweight prospect won’t be willingly asking his opponent to return to his feet the same way Kevin Holland did the last time we saw Thompson. One fighter is coming in with the idea of a standup fight at distance, and one is coming in looking to maul his opponent.
Thompson’s 64% takedown defense is not strong enough to avoid precarious situations against one of the most dangerous fighters in the world.
UFC 296 All-Violence Parlay Odds: +774 (DraftKings)
UFC 296 Same Game Parlay
Same game parlays on DraftKings allow bettors to extract maximum value by correlating fight results, and that is exactly what we will do in the UFC 296 main event.
For context, Colby Covington is +240 to win by decision at DraftKings, but I have found a better way to play the underdog if you expect him to leave the event as champion.
In Round 1, a fresh Covington will relentlessly pursue the takedown while both fighters are dry to try to drain the cardio of welterweight champion Leon Edwards.
Covington shot five takedowns in Round 1 against Jorge Masvidal, seven in Round 1 against Robbie Lawler, and four against Rafael dos Anjos. He even secured a takedown against Tyron Woodley in Round 1 of their 2020 fight.
It’s quite clear – as he does against primarily strikers – Covington is going to find a way to drag the fight to the mat in Round 1. Thus "1+ takedown in Round 1" will be included in the parlay.
If Covington is in control, I expect him to opt for position over anything else to keep the bout where he wants it. Edwards will not be an easy guy to finish either, and thus, I will play over 15.5 minutes.
A fourth- or fifth-round finish on either side wouldn’t be shocking given these fighters’ history, so playing over 15.5 safeguards our bet from a late-round finish.
If Covington is controlling the fight in this manner, it almost goes without saying he will land the most takedowns.
My UFC 296 same-game parlay includes:
- Colby Covington – moneyline (3-way)
- Over 15.5 – total minutes
- Covington – 1+ takedown in Round 1
- Most takedowns – Covington
UFC 296 SGP with Colby Covington: +350 at DraftKings
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