UFC 297 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Chris Curtis vs. Marc-Andre Barriault: Action Man or PowerBar? (Saturday, January 20)
Louis Grasse/Getty Images. Pictured: UFC middleweight Chris Curtis
Chris Curtis vs. Marc-Andre Barriault Odds
| Curtis Odds | -184 |
| Barriault Odds | +154 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 rounds (-160 / +126) |
| Location | Scotiabank Arena in Toronto |
| Time | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ PPV |
| Odds as of Saturday evening and via Caesars. Use our Caesars Sportsbook promo code for UFC 297! | |
Here's everything you need to know about Chris Curtis vs. Marc-Andre Barriault on Saturday, Jan. 20 – our expert MMA prediction and pick for UFC 297.
It sounds like the title of a bad comic book, but "The Action Man" vs. "PowerBar" is the second fight of the UFC 297 pay-per-view broadcast.
Also known as middleweights, Chris Curtis and Marc-Andre Barriault (respectively), these stand-up fighters will slug it out on Saturday.
Curtis is looking to get back on track after his last two fights were both mired in controversy – both due to inadvertent head-butts that worked against the ranked middleweight.
For Barriault, it's a chance to extend his winning streak to three – and possibly earn an official UFC ranking for the first time in his career.
Tale of the Tape
| Curtis | Barriault | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 30-10 | 16-6 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:29 | 11:15 |
| Height | 5'10" | 6'1" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185.25 lbs. | 184.75 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 74" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 7/15/1987 | 2/18/1990 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.36 | 5.95 |
| SS Accuracy | 50% | 47% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 6.3 | 5.2 |
| SS Defense | 54% | 53% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.000 | 0.24 |
| TD Acc | 0% | 25% |
| TD Def | 92% | 67% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.1 |
It was a tough 2023 for Chris Curtis.
After bursting on the scene in late 2021 as a short-notice replacement and going 4-1 with three knockout victories, the veteran's ascension to the top hit some roadblocks.
First was a close decision loss to Kelvin Gastelum, which saw Curtis lose the pivotal second round due to being knocked down by an unnoticed Gastelum head-butt. Disaster struck again in his next fight – a no-contest also due to a head-butt (fortunately noticed by the official).
That it happened in consecutive fights was bad luck; that it happened at all is a natural result of his fighting style. Curtis fights similarly to UFC 297 headliner – also his teammate – Sean Strickland, except from a southpaw stance.
That means a heavy dose of forward pressure behind a modified "Philly Shell" style defense. He carries his lead hand low to protect from body shots, with his left hand at his chin. Coupled with his desire to stay "in the pocket" and trade, head-butts are a natural consequence.
Also like Strickland, Curtis is a former welterweight. Unlike Strickland, his power has played up just fine at the heavier weight class.
Curtis' knockdown rate is well above the divisional average, and nearly twice that of his UFC 297 opponent. The speed developed at a lighter-weight class is still there as well, and he tends to have faster hands than almost all of his opponents.
Curtis will mix in the occasional big kick or knee, but he's at his best when keeping it simple with his boxing. He should have a big edge over Barriault if it stays that way.
It's unlikely to matter in this fight (since neither man shoots for many takedowns), but The Action Man is nearly impossible to take down – with a 92% defense rate despite fighting grapplers including Phil Hawes, Brendan Allen and Rodolofo Viera – the latter of whom went a ridiculous 0-for-20 on takedowns in their bout.
Barriault is also almost exclusively a striker, though he prefers a vastly different range than Curtis. PowerBar likes to stay on the edge, using karate-style kicks to keep opponents at bay while circling out of danger. Against more aggressive opponents, he'll initiate – and often succeed in – the clinch game, though that's a dangerous game to play against Curtis.
Barriault is theoretically the better grappler of the pair, with a submission win and a pair of takedowns in his early UFC run. Even if he attempts to go that route, it's unlikely to work against Curtis, though.
Barriault's power and chin are both around average for the division, with three knockdowns across 11 UFC fights – compared to four in eight fights for Curtis.
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Curtis vs. Barriault Pick
There's a path to victory for the underdog on paper here. If he can make this a rangy, technical fight, Barriault could outpoint his way to victory in front of a friendly Canadian crowd. There's a lot working against that possibility, though.
First, the optics of sniping at range against a more aggressive fighter don't typically work with judges. Even if Barriault lands more strikes, those coming back from Curtis are likely to be more impactful.
The other issue is the reach edge for Curtis. Despite being three inches shorter, Curtis has an inch and a half in reach. His oddly long wingspan tends to force opponents to close the distance – playing right into his hands.
The money has poured in on Curtis since he opened at around a -125 favorite, with most books listing him closer to -200 as of this writing.
I don't love getting the worst of the line here – but I don't see any other option. I'm not confident Barriault provides an opportunity for a finish, but the favorite should get it done one way or the other.
Fortunately, sportsbooks such as Caesars and DraftKings are still a bit off the market at -185, where I'll be betting to win a unit. And I'd take it down to -200. Curtis also makes for a reasonably safe parlay piece if you'd prefer not to lay the long(ish) odds.
The Pick: Chris Curtis (-185 at Caesars)
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