UFC 297 Odds, Picks, Projections: Our Best Bets for Sean Strickland vs. Dricus du Plessis & More (Saturday, January 20)
Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC middleweight Dricus Du Plessis of South Africa
Check out our UFC 297 best bets for Saturday's pay-per-view event in Toronto, which features champion Sean Strickland vs. Dricus du Plessis in the main event.
UFC 297 takes place at Scotiabank Arena. The Canadian event includes prelims on ESPN+ (6:30 p.m. ET) and ESPNews (8 p.m. ET) before the main card on ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET (cost: $79.99).
With 12 fights in all, including two title fights atop the lineup, our UFC 297 best bets come from throughout the Saturday night fight card.
So where should be looking to place your bets? Our crew has pinpointed four fights and picks on Saturday’s stacked PPV card that present betting value.
You can find their analysis and picks on those matches plus Sean Zerillo's projections below using odds from DraftKings.
Moneyline Projections
Prop Projections
Sean Zerillo: Yohan Lainesse vs. Sam Patterson
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:25 p.m. ET
Yohan Lainesse is a flawed fighter. He's neither a technical striker nor an effective grappler.
He also carries considerable power for about five to seven minutes, and then his cardio falls off a cliff.
Sam Patterson (+120), who is moving up from lightweight for this UFC 297 fight, is a bit chinny and will undoubtedly be susceptible to an early knockout loss from a powerful opponent in Lainesse (-142). Still, he has vastly more ways of winning this preliminary-card fight, and I expect the change in weight class to improve his durability.
Patterson had no business cutting to 155 pounds at 6-foot-3.
Despite the weight move, Patterson remains the taller and longer fighter, and he has Lainesse covered everywhere skills-wise in this matchup aside from pure punching power. And he only needs to be wary of that for about one round.
Patterson is my favorite bet on the card; my model put his moneyline at +115, and Caesars is offering a market-best +130.
There's an argument that Patterson should be favored, given the enormity of his win probability beyond Round 1.
Bet Patterson pre-fight and look to add more live after the opening round. (You can also find some prop betting options for this fight in my full UFC 297 betting guide.)
The Pick: Sam Patterson (+130 at Caesars)
Billy Ward: Serhiy Sidey vs. Ramon Taveras
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:25 p.m. ET
Serhiy Sidey (-192) and Ramon Taveras (+160) are doing it again, brother, after their Contender Series bout ended in controversy.
In the first round of that bout, Sidey dropped Tavares with a right hand, causing the ref to jump in despite Tavares immediately popping back up and appearing fine to continue.
That explains why we’re doing it again (Tavares went on to win a different Contender Series fight) – but it doesn’t explain the line. It’s actually inched slightly toward Tavares at certain books while mostly staying roughly the same.
While Sidey didn’t exactly definitively win the first matchup, he was certainly winning. The vast majority of early stoppages would’ve still gone to the same fighter as the winner usually banked a round (at a minimum) and would probably finish it more emphatically in short order.
I was on Sidey at a similar line in their first matchup, and most of the same logic still applies. Plus, this time the taller and longer Sidey gets a bigger cage, as well as a friendly Canadian crowd that could sway the judges' decision in a close fight.
I’d take this down to the -190 or so lines available everywhere, but obviously, I prefer getting the -175 offered by BetMGM.
The Pick: Serhiy Sidey (-175 at BetMGM)
(ESPN Bet is here, and you can use our exclusive ESPN BET promo code TANBONUS for your UFC 297 action.)
Dann Stupp: Chris Curtis vs. Marc-Andre Barriault
Senior Editor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:25 p.m. ET
On the most basic level, I expect Chris Curtis to win his upcoming fight seven out of 10 times – 70% – which translates to fair odds of -233.
However, when Curtis (-185) meets fellow middleweight Marc-Andre Barriault (+154) on the UFC 297 main card, we can get -182 (64.5%) over at PointsBet and -185 at multiple other sportsbooks.
That may seem like a small edge on the face of it. However, if we're correct with our pre-fight forecasting and if we can exploit value-rich lines like the ones we're being offered with this fight, we're going to come out ahead in the long run. That's MMA handicapping at its most basic level.
The key, though, is making sure our pre-fight assessment matches reality.
And in this case, I felt much better about my prediction when my colleague Billy Ward also detailed a clear path to victory for "The Action Man" over "PowerBar" in his Curtis vs. Barriault betting breakdown for UFC 297.
What Curtis lacks in his height he more than compensates for with reach. And even if Barriault closes the distance, he's not likely to find much of a reprieve. Plus, if Barriault attempts a surprise takedown, Curtis is nearly impossible to get to the mat.
Props to all of you sharp bettors who banked those near-even-money odds on Curtis when sportsbooks first opened the lines for this fight.
But there's still plenty of corn left on the cob for everyone else, so take a bite and back Curtis in this fight down to -200. (Personally, I'm also going to have some small plays on Curtis to win inside the distance and/or to win in Rounds 2 and 3.)
The Pick: Chris Curtis (-182 at PointsBet)
Tony Sartori: Sean Strickland vs. Dricus Du Plessis
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:55 p.m. ET
In UFC 297's main event, we have what could be an instant classic for the middleweight championship as champion Sean Strickland (-110) defends the strap against Dricus Du Plessis (-110). Both guys fight forward and throw in heavy volume, which has all the makings for an absolute war.
Oddsmakers agree as the over/under for this five-round fight is 2.5 rounds. While I think it will actually go over that total, I would be shocked if the judges' input is needed in this fight.
One of these guys is getting put down, and I think it will be the champion. I must admit Strickland's absolute dismantling of Isreal Adesanya was beyond shocking and proved that he is legitimately one of the world's best 185-pounders.
In terms of odds, it is one of the bigger upsets in UFC history, but I think it was as shocking as Holly Holm beating Ronda Rousey given how Strickland broke Izzy down and won four of the five rounds. However, this recency bias has led to an extremely generous line on DDP, who quite frankly is the better fighter.
Obviously, if Strickland fights like he did against Adesanya, then he will win. With that said, I would argue that Adesanya was never the same in that fight after getting knocked down in the first round. Everything that followed seemed to be a product of that moment.
This is MMA, and anyone can have an off night or the best night of their life, and that was the simultaneous case when Strickland beat "The Last Stylebender." I don't think that will be the case against Du Plessis, a guy who seems ever-prepared for the moment and hasn't lost an MMA fight in nearly five years.
He is 8-0 since then with seven finishes. DDP obviously carries the power, but he brings more to this fight than Strickland because he can also win on the mat.
It is that power that I suspect will end this fight early, though, given Strickland probably has the weaker chin of the two. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos knocked down Strickland before winning by TKO while Alex Pereira delivered a devastating left hook to the current champion in the first round.
If DDP can knock out Robert Whittaker, then he can knock out Strickland. I locked in this number at +285 on Thursday, but I would still happily play it at the current price of +250 at Betway.
The Pick: Dricus Du Plessis by KO/TKO (+250 at Betway)
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