UFC 299 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Dustin Poirier vs. Benoit Saint Denis: Upset Brewing in Co-Main Event (Saturday, March 9)
Jeff Bottari/Getty. Pictured: UFC lightweight Dustin Poirier
Dustin Poirier vs. Benoit Saint Denis Odds
Here's everything you need to know about the Dustin Poirier vs. Benoit Saint Denis odds at UFC 299 – with our expert pick and prediction for Saturday, March 9.
The UFC 299 co-main event features a potential changing of the guard at lightweight with former interim champion Dustin Poirier (+168) vs. Benoit Saint Denis (-210).
After nearly finding himself on the wrong end of a sanctioned execution in his UFC debut, Saint Denis has since dropped down to his natural weight class of 155 pounds and proceeded to violently finish five straight opponents, earning his moniker "God of War."
As Captain Willard in "Apocalypse Now" once said, "Everyone gets everything he wants."
Well, Saint Denis wanted one of the division's top names. And for his sins, the matchmakers gave him one.
Here's my Poirier vs. Saint Denis pick for the UFC 299 co-main event.
Tale of the Tape
| Poirier | Saint Denis | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 29-8 | 13-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:58 | 7:09 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 73" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 1/19/1989 | 12/18/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.49 | 5.53 |
| SS Accuracy | 50% | 52% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.30 | 5.20 |
| SS Defense | 53% | 44% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.36 | 4.55 |
| TD Acc | 36% | 36% |
| TD Def | 63% | 66% |
| Submission Avg | 1.2 | 1.4 |
Considering that both men are well-rounded, action-fighting southpaws, this matchup has the potential to go in a plethora of different directions.
Poirier, who has a larger sample size against southpaws, currently stands 5-2 opposite UFC-level lefties.
After sustaining stoppage losses to fellow southpaws Conor McGregor and Michael Johnson, Poirier smartly took those lessons to heart and sharpened his boxing skills.
Not only did Poirier adopt the weapons that both McGregor and Johnson got him with into his repertoire, but the Louisiana slugger's lead hand presence has been a real key to his success in subsequent southpaw matchups.
Although I believe that Poirier's lead hand will have a lot of play in this matchup (particularly the check right hook), the 35-year-old veteran will need to respect the power that is coming his way.
Despite having a strong grappling base, Saint Denis has proven that he has knockout potential in just about everything he throws.
Unabashedly slinging his left shin like a Louisville Slugger bat, Saint Denis will typically look to vary his attacks to head and body.
However, given both the stance pairing and Poirier's history with calf kicks, I wouldn't be shocked to see Saint Denis target the American's legs.
But with pressure-wrestling arguably being the path of least resistance for Saint Denis, I think we will see the Frenchman try and take Poirier down anytime they're near the fence.
Saint Denis may not have the last name Nurmagomedov, but the former special forces soldier has an aggressive grappling game that embodies a similar spirit to some of the popular Dagestani fighters.
If Saint Denis can establish the riding positions he likes, then perhaps he can recreate the success that fighters like Khabib Nurmagomedov or even Charles Oliveira had.
Poirier vs. Saint Denis Pick
Despite the oddsmakers setting the American as the odds-on favorite, public money has flipped the line in the favor of the Frenchman, listing Saint Denis as cheap as -205 and Poirier a market-best +190 as of this writing.
After doing this for so long, you no longer become surprised when you see MMA gamblers trip over themselves to fade proven products like Poirier in favor of younger flavors of the month.
In their defense, MMA is certainly no country for old men, and the statistics tend to support the ageists, at least from the perspective of winning percentages.
If Saint Denis can find success with his usual blitzes against the fence, then I wouldn't necessarily be shocked to see Poirier break down at this point of his career.
(On Monday, March 11, the Tar Heel State will launch North Carolina sports betting fully online. Pre-register today.)
That said, it's too hard to ignore the gaping holes in the French fighter's defenses that are begging to be taxed.
Although Saint Denis has yet to officially face a UFC-level lefty, every fighter in the octagon who attempted to check right hooks from southpaw has essentially landed on the 28-year-old talent.
In fact, counter-right hands, in general, appear to be the common culprit for Saint Denis regardless of what stance his opponent takes.
Couple Poirier's lead hand savvy with the fact that this fight is scheduled for five rounds, and I can't help but like the American's chances against a fighter who has yet to find success past Round 2.
With both the betting value and the analysis aligning with the plus-money side of the equation, I feel obligated to take a stab at Poirier's moneyline, as well as his knockout prop (which can currently be found in the neighborhood of +350 via FanDuel and other sportsbooks).
The Picks: Dustin Poirier (+190 at Ceasars) | Poirier by knockout (+350 at FanDuel)
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