UFC 300 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Holly Holm vs. Kayla Harrison: Newcomer Made Weight – Now What? (Saturday, April 13)
Cooper Neill/Getty Images. Pictured: Former PFL fighter and UFC debutant Kayla Harrison
Holly Holm vs. Kayla Harrison Odds
Here's our Holly Holm vs. Kayla Harrison pick for UFC 300 on Saturday, April 13 – with our expert prediction.
Finally, Kayla Harrison is in the UFC. As part of this weekend's milestone event this weekend, Harrison will make her octagon debut as part of the UFC 300's ESPN-televised preliminary card.
And welcoming her will be future UFC Hall of Famer Holly Holm, who still – in 2024 – is one of the primary contenders in the 135-pound bantamweight division.
The weight class is key to this bout, given that Harrison established herself as the best female lightweight (155-pounder) in mixed martial arts history. She even competed at a 150-pound catchweight in her last PFL bout. Still, she'll have to compete in the 135-pound bantamweight division for the first time in her career.
Given the level of accomplishments across multiple combat sports and the crossroads elements of this encounter, Holm (15-6, 8 KOs) vs. Harrison (16-1, 6 KOs, 6 submissions) is one of UFC 300's most captivating contests.
Tale of the Tape
| Holm | Harrison | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 15-6 | 16-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 16:42 | n/a |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 136 lbs. | 136 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 69" | 66" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 10/17/1981 | 7/2/1990 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.21 | 0.00 |
| SS Accuracy | 40% | 0% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.79 | 0.00 |
| SS Defense | 56% | 0% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.90 | 0.00 |
| TD Acc | 30% | 0% |
| TD Def | 78% | 0% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Holm's been in MMA long enough to note that her boxing and kickboxing stints are well in the past, but they serve as her base to this day. That will make for an interesting approach against Harrison, a 2012 and 2016 Olympic gold medalist in judo, the same discipline in which Ronda Rousey scored bronze at the 2008 games.
Harrison was a terror in PFL and, at one point, the fight promotion's most dominant competitor prior to a shocking upset loss to Larissa Pacheco in a PFL lightweight tournament final in November 2022.
Harrison had beaten Pacheco twice by unanimous decision three years prior in 2019 – including that year's lightweight tournament final.
Since then, Harrison decisioned Aspen Ladd in November at a 150-pound catchweight by three scores of 49-46 each.
Holm famously knocked out Rousey in November 2015. However, since then, she's 5-6, though she's at least won three of her last four going back to January 2020. Her defeat to Ketlen Vieira in May 2022 was a debatable split decision, and she lost despite nearly doubling Vieira in significant strikes.
Holm suffered a submission loss to Mayra Bueno-Silva this past July, but it was overturned after she tested positive for ritalinic acid. She fought four months prior, beating Yana Santos by a shutout unanimous decision.
Also of note, both ladies are 5-foot-8, but we have two distinct advantages that could tilt the power balance in either direction.
Holm has the reach advantage at 69 inches to Harrison's just 66 inches.
However, Harrison will not only have the strength edge, but youth will be on her side. She's still just 33 whereas Holm is 42.
Holm vs. Harrison Pick
My biggest concern with this fight isn't the age difference; it's the weight cut.
Regarding that, here's what Harrison said earlier this year.
"There’s a misperception out there that I walk around at like 180 pounds or something," Harrison told KevinIole.com. "I have walked around most of my MMA career at 165, 160 (pounds) because I don’t like cutting weight. I don’t believe in cutting weight. I don’t think it sends the right message to kids.
"That being said, I don’t agree with this, but sometimes you have to show up and do things you don’t agree with in order to make your dreams come true. The whole time I was (in the PFL), I walked around at 165, maybe 160, and so not only was I usually the smaller fighter with less experience, I was getting in the cage with girls who were getting in there at 180, 175 pounds."
Earlier this week, I said this: "Before Harrison and Holm hit the scale on Friday, I can't play a -480 favorite – who's facing a weight cut of possibly 30 or so pounds – against a live 'dog. I don't care how old or weathered Holm is. So the pick is this: An early play on Holm on the moneyline at +360. But keep it small for now."
Harrison has since made weight:
We don't know for sure, but rehydration seems to be going OK from afar following Friday evening's ceremonial weigh-ins, and ultimately, we'll find out on fight night. For now, outside of the bet I placed on Holm earlier this week, there's nothing else I'll feel the need to jump on before the opening clap.
I'll look to see if Holm starts fast, controls the distance and strikes the former PFL champion from range. If not, I'll look for an opportunity to buy in on Harrison if the line drops to -150 or better.
This also applies if Harrison just starts slow and uses the first couple of minutes to assess Holm's movements. Harrison is too overpriced for me to buy in with confidence right now, even after making weight.
I'd rather live bet or just ride with the Holm sprinkle.
Enjoy the fight and don't go broke.
The Pick: Holly Holm (+360 at BetRivers) – early-week bet
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