UFC 321 brings us two title fights from Abu Dhabi. The main event features the first official title defense of the Tom Aspinall era as he takes on Frenchman Cyril Gane, while the co-main event is between Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern for the vacant 115 lbs. title.
We've got a special 10:00 AM ET start time for the 14-fight card, with the main card on ESPN+ PPV at 2:00.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC 321 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC 321 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Tom Aspinall (-380) vs. Cyril Gane (+300)
This will technically be the fourth heavyweight title fight for Gane, who defeated Derrick Lewis for the interim belt then lost the unification match to Francis NGannou, as well as a shot at the vacant title against Jon Jones.
Since then he's picked up a pair of wins, the most recent being a highly controversial split decision against Alexander Volkov that roughly 90% of media members and fans scored for Volkov.
It's easy to see why he's a heavy underdog to Aspinall. The champion has just two losses in the past decade. One of those was a freak knee injury against Curtis Blaydes — whom he later finished in sixty seconds in his first interim title defense — and the other a DQ due to illegal 12-6 elbows way back in 2016.
Gane largely relies on his athleticism to power him past mid tier heavyweights, but that falls apart against fighters like Jones and NGannou who can match him in that department. Count Aspinall in that group as well.
I'd say this line is about right, though we'll potentially have an opportunity to cut some juice on Aspinall via his finish or point spread props later in the week.
Verdict: Fairly Valued
Mackenzie Dern (-166) vs. Virna Jandiroba (+140)
This is an interesting matchup to break down. Jandiroba has had the much better recent run, winning six straight fights including two against former title challengers Amanda Lemos and Xionan Yan. Dern has losses to both of those women, and is on just a two-fight winning streak overall.
However, Dern also has a win over Jandiroba in December of 2020. Rematches tend to favor the prior winner as well as the younger fighter, and Dern is about five years the junior of Jandiroba. It's also a tricky stylistic matchup between two grapplers that could lead to some rounds that are tough to score, and the typical approach to matchups like that is to lean towards the underdog.
I'll have a full breakdown of this one later in the week after I dig into some tape on both women, particularly their grappling styles. Until then, if you lean Jandiroba I'd suggest waiting to make a bet, as the popular Dern likely draws most of the late money. Conversely, you could grab a Dern ticket now, since her price will probably rise throughout the week.
Verdict: Fairly Valued
Valter Walker (-310) vs. Louie Sutherland (+250)
I tried to fade Walker ahead of his last scheduled appearance against Mohammed Usman, but an Usman withdrawal took that opportunity from us. I'm going back to the well here with a similar thesis, namely that it's not that hard to defend a heel hook if you know they're coming.
Walker has three straight victories by the technique, which is a full half of the heavyweight heel hooks in the UFC's 32 year history. There's a reason they're so rare, and that's because it's an extremely risky technique in MMA that forces a fighter to tie up both hands while hunting a submission, exposing themselves to strikes.
It's unclear if Walker is good at anything else, and he comes into the fight with a heavily negative striking differential. Sutherland is a solid grappler who I picked to beat Justin Tafa last month before that fight was cancelled, and those skills should help him avoid Walker's main winning condition.
This fight was a late add so we haven't seen much line movement, but I'm going to jump in on the Sutherland side early just in case, as +250 is more than long enough odds for me.
Verdict: Sutherland Undervalued
Nasrat Haqparast (-112) vs. Quillan Salkilld (-108)
After Salkilld opened on DraftKings at around +120 odds, he was quickly bet to a near pick 'em against Nasrat Haqparast. This fight was also a late addition to the card last week, though it seems both fighters got the news at the same time, so there should be no difference in levels of preparedness.
Haqparast has won five in a row, but the last two were both split decision victories. Each of those wins has upwards of 75% of fans and media thinking that Haqparast lost the fight, so he could easily have lost two in a row.
Salkilld has won nine in a row dating back to his pre-UFC run as the Eternal MMA lightweight champion, with his only career loss coming in his debut at just 21 years old. His nine wins consist of six stoppages and three unanimous decision victories, so he's earned his record.
While it's a step up in competition for the Australian, it's hard not to fade a fighter coming in off back-toback undeserved victories. Especially when there's already been sharp money coming in on his side. Grab it now before he flips to being favored. Caesaras Sportsbook still has +100 odds on Salkilld, the best in the market.
Verdict: Salkilld Undervalued
