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Saturday’s UFC Odds, Picks, Projections: Our Fight Night Best Bets, Including Dean Barry vs. Mike Jackson and Clay Guida vs. Claudio Puelles (April 22)

Saturday’s UFC Odds, Picks, Projections: Our Fight Night Best Bets, Including Dean Barry vs. Mike Jackson and Clay Guida vs. Claudio Puelles (April 22) article feature image
Credit:

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured (L-R): UFC opponents Clay Guida and Claudio Puelles.

  • UFC Fight Night is headlined by Jessica Andrade against the No. 10-ranked contender in the division, Amanda Lemos.
  • How should you look to bet tonight's card? There are plenty of options.
  • Continue reading for our staff's best bets for UFC Fight Night in Las Vegas.

The UFC is back at the Apex this Saturday for a 12-bout Fight Night card headlined by former UFC Women’s Strawweight champion Jessica Andrade and the No. 10-ranked contender in the division, Amanda Lemos.

So where should you be looking to place your bets? Our crew has pinpointed two fights and picks on Saturday’s stacked card that present betting value.

You can find their analysis and picks on those matches plus Sean Zerillo’s projections below using odds from BetMGM.

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Moneyline Projections

Prop Projections


Billy Ward: Dean Barry vs. Mike Jackson

Contributor at The Action Network

In a fight I still can’t believe is real, Dean Barry is taking on Mike Jackson to kick off the festivities Saturday night. For those unfamiliar with this Mike Jackson, he was brought in by the UFC in 2016 essentially to legitimize Mickey Gall for the latter’s fight with CM Punk.

Gall was 1-0 as a pro MMA fighter at the time, while Jackson was a 1-0 amateur, who’s only win was a split decision. Gall beat Jackson in the first round, and then did the same to Punk. For some reason though, Jackson was given a fight with Punk anyway. He dominated the aging pro wrestler to a decision win, but it was overturned due to a drug test.

Here we are more than four years later, with Jackson returning to the cage against Irish prospect Dean Barry. Barry has a questionable resume himself, but it’s light years ahead of Jackson, who realistically would lose to most solid amateur fighters.

It seems like Jackson’s contract stipulated a third fight, and the UFC can only cut fighters following a loss. Since he didn’t lose his last one, they’re obligated to give him one more chance.

I love everything about this fight so much. Why it took so long to finish Jackson’s contract out is beyond me, but it makes the situation all the more ridiculous. Maybe the UFC is hoping Barry is the next McGregor (spoiler alert: he isn’t) and wanted to gift him a win to start his career.

Regardless, my favorite bet here is Barry by submission at +550 on FanDuel. Sometimes with egregious mismatches like this, it’s easier to submit your opponent then leave it up to the ref to jump in while you’re battering him. Jackson also (allegedly) has some kickboxing experience, so taking him to the ground would be the safer option for Barry.

I also like Barry to win in Round 1, at +130 on DraftKings. There’s absolutely no way he should allow Jackson to make out of the first frame here. That similarly means I’ll be betting the under 1.5 rounds at -115 at BetRivers.

Finally, Barry’s moneyline is “only” -1000 at BetRivers. Whatever you have left in your bankroll after making the rest of your MMA bets on Saturday, throw it on there. It’s only a 10% ROI, but this is as close to free money as we’ll ever see in MMA.

The Pick: Dean Barry Wins by Submission +550

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Sean Zerillo: Clay Guida vs. Claudio Puelles

Senior Writer at The Action Network

Puelles enters on a four-fight winning streak – including a pair of decisions and two wins via kneebar — but he has primarily lost minutes in his UFC career, and his margins – even in victory — have been extremely narrow.

Typically, you would expect a fighter who is 14-years-younger than his opponent to have a significant cardio advantage. However, Clay Guida, the 33-fight octagon veteran, would stand to benefit from a high-paced affair.

Puelles consistently fades in the third round of his fights, even after competing at a relatively low tempo over the first ten minutes. Guida won’t allow him a moment to rest, and I expect “The Carpenter” to shoot takedowns early and often (3.26 takedowns per 15 minutes, 38% accuracy).

While Puelles has shown some offensive wrestling (2.07 per 15 minutes, 51% accuracy), Guida is much more relentless, and I suspect he can push Puelles to the brink by forcing an extended grappling match.

The fight should be competitive on the feet. I favor Guida slightly on volume; however, Puelles will try to keep Guida at range with his length (2-inch reach advantage) and kicks. He doesn’t have the power to win by knockout — or hurt his older opponent — at a significant clip.

Puelles isn’t a dangerous guard player; unless Guida makes a massive mistake, I have difficulty seeing him getting caught in a kneebar or something similar. Guida is susceptible to guillotine chokes when he decides to change levels, but it is not a technique that we have seen Puelles deploy.

Moreover, when Puelles returns to his feet, Guida should be able to control him up against the cage and kill time off of the clock before returning his opponent to the mat.

Aside from the age discrepancy, Guida is the apparent side in this fight. Still, it’s worth noting that when there’s a 10+ year age gap between MMA opponents, the younger fighter wins 67% of the time, at average odds closer to 59%, about 8% over expectation.

However, the older fighter rarely has the cardio advantage in those matchups, especially to such a significant degree.

I projected Guida as a 57.5% favorite (-135 implied) in this matchup, and I would bet his moneyline up to -122 (55% implied) or better.

The Pick: Clay Guida (-110 at Caesars)

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