UFC Vegas 62 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Alexa Grasso vs. Viviane Araujo: The Sharp Way to Bet Main Event (Saturday, October 15)
Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC flyweight Alexa Grasso
- Top flyweights Alexa Grasso and Viviane Araujo meet in Saturday's UFC main event.
- Grasso is a 2-1 favorite in a fight that could determine a future title contender.
- Sean Zerillo breaks down the fight and offers his best bet for the five-round headliner below.
Alexa Grasso vs. Viviane Araujo Odds
A future women's flyweight title challenger could emerge from Saturday's UFC Vegas 62 main event between No. 5-ranked contender Alexa Grasso and No. 6 Viviane Araujo.
Saturday's event (4 p.m. ET, ESPN+) will mark the first UFC main event appearance and the first five-round fight for both 125-pounders.
Grasso has a 6-3 record in the UFC and enters on a three-fight winning streak, including a first-round submission – and her first career submission victory – over Joanne Wood in March. It was an encouraging development for a fighter whose best skill is boxing. Seven of her nine UFC fights have gone the distance.
Araujo owns a 5-2 record in the promotion and has seen the scorecards in six of those fights. Still, her questionable cardio could be a significant concern in the championship rounds on Saturday.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for Saturday's matchup and utilize those factors to bet on the UFC Fight Night: Araujo vs. Grasso main event.
Tale of the Tape
|Avg. Fight Time||12:25||14:24|
|Weight (pounds)||125 lbs.||125 lbs.|
|Date of birth||8/9/1993||11/21/1986|
|Sig Strikes Per Min||4.92||4.76|
|SS Absorbed Per Min||3.79||5.13|
|Take Down Avg||0.54||2.23|
While stats aren't everything – especially in MMA – the above metrics paint a decent picture of the two fighters and their respective archetypes.
Grasso is the more efficient striker (+1.13 to -0.37 strike differential per minute) and the better defensive fighter (+5% striking defense). She offers superior footwork and faster hands, and she should have success breaking down Araujo on the feet and winning extended exchanges in the pocket.
Conversely, Araujo is the superior grappler and is reliable in shooting takedowns (3.71 attempts per 15 minutes) while landing them at a high clip. Grasso's takedown defense (60%) isn't great, but she has developed into a highly competent mat grappler; she stays safe from submissions, avoids giving up dominant positions, and typically tries to reverse positions.
Moreover, Grasso has relied on her offensive wrestling more of late. I wouldn't be surprised to see her mix in a takedown attempt of her own, particularly in the later rounds, if Araujo is tiring.
I expect Araujo to find success – and win minutes – early in the fight. She is the more physically imposing and powerful athlete between the pair, and she should be able to land takedowns when both fighters are fresh – and dry.
However, Araujo typically slows in the third round of her fights, winning just three third rounds unanimously in six UFC decisions. And while Grasso often starts slowly, her momentum often builds the longer her fights go. Grasso has lost a single third round in the UFC – against a similarly slow starter, Maycee Barber.
Even if Grasso falls behind in the first couple of rounds, she can aid her chances of winning the fight if she consistently forces Araujo to work and waste energy rather than closing her guard in bottom position and letting her opponent lay on top until the round ends.
There should be a turning point in this fight around the 10- to 12-minute mark, where Grasso's cardio advantage becomes evident. From that point forward, she should begin significantly taking over minute-winning.
If the fight hits the scorecards, it could come down to how the judges scored Round 3 – and precisely where Grasso started to pull ahead in the middle rounds. However, she likely possesses some late finishing upside, too, if Araujo's cardio betrays her completely.
At this price point, I would be all over Araujo in a three-round fight. Still, the five-round dynamic changes the handicap completely.
Grasso vs. Araujo Pick
I projected Alexa Grasso as a 73% favorite (-270 implied odds) in this fight, and I see value in her moneyline.
Moreover, I expect the fight to reach a decision 70% of the time (-233 implied), slightly more often than the odds suggest (-200 at DraftKings).
However, I do view Araujo as the value side from a pre-fight moneyline perspective, considering her success should mostly be frontloaded. And you will almost certainly find a better live price on Grasso after Round 1 and/or Round 2 since the opening rounds should be close and competitive, with Araujo possessing nearly all of the early grappling upside.
As a result, look to target Grasso in the live market – at a better price – after Round 2. Araujo's cardio should begin to wane during the third round.
And considering the respective edges I see pre-fight – both on Grasso's moneyline and the Over – I'm willing to combine those opinions into a Same Game Parlay at DraftKings, with Grasso and the Over 2.5 Rounds, at -120.
That bet gives us all of Grasso's decision equity, on top of her late finish equity, and the adjustment relative to her decision prop is not all that substantial.
While I show actionable value on Grasso's decision prop (projected -105, listed +120 at DraftKings), the SGP is still my preferred way to bet this fight.
If you can't access DraftKings – and if you're unable to bet that SGP elsewhere – try to find a "Grasso wins in 4, 5, or by Decision prop" (some books offer that option) or combine a bet on Grasso's decision prop with smaller individual sprinkles on her Round 4 and Round 5 props.
And look to live bet the Grasso side after 10 minutes have elapsed.
The Pick: SGP (-120, 0.5u at DraftKings): Alexa Grasso & Over 2.5 Rounds | Live bet Grasso after Round 2