UFC Vegas 71 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Brad Tavares vs. Bruno Silva: Target the Total in Co-main Event (Saturday, Saturday April 22)

UFC Vegas 71 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Brad Tavares vs. Bruno Silva: Target the Total in Co-main Event (Saturday, Saturday April 22) article feature image

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC middleweight Brad Tavares

  • The UFC Vegas 71 co-main event on Saturday features UFC middleweight staple Brad Tavares vs. Bruno Silva.
  • Although it wasn't the originally planned co-headliner, Taveres vs. Silva presents some betting value.
  • Below, noted MMA handicapper Dan Tom breaks down the fight and explains why he's targeting the total.

Brad Tavares vs. Bruno Silva Odds

Tavares Odds
Silva Odds
2.5 (+105 / -125)
UFC Apex in Las Vegas
8:30 p.m. ET
UFC Vegas 71 odds as of Friday and via WynnBET

The UFC Vegas 71 co-main event in Las Vegas on Saturday features a middleweight matchup between Brad Tavares and Bruno Silva.

With Tavares still looking like he's in his physical prime, it's easy to forget he's been mixing it up in the UFC for the better part of 13 years.

Tavares is coming off a loss (as well as a fight cancellation), so expect him to come in motivated despite not having a ranking next to his name.

Standing on the other side of the Hawaiian is Silva, a deceptively experienced Brazilian whose been hit and miss inside the octagon.

Silva, who is still the only fighter to go the distance with former champ Alex Pereira in the UFC, will attempt to stop the bleeding of a two-fight skid on Saturday night.

Tale of the Tape

Avg. Fight Time13:159:05
Weight (pounds)185 lbs.185 lbs.
Reach (inches)74"74"
Date of birth12/21/19877/13/1989
Sig Strikes Per Min3.304.31
SS Accuracy43%48%
SS Absorbed Per Min3.014.58
SS Defense56%44%
Take Down Avg0.860.66
TD Acc26%18%
TD Def80%71%
Submission Avg0.00.0

Considering where both men make their money, I would not be shocked if this fight primarily took place on the feet.

Aside from having incredible takedown defense and balance to boot, Tavares has developed into a solid, consistent striker over the course of his UFC tenure.

A longtime student under Ray "Sugarfoot" Sefo, Tavares does well at staying fundamentally sound with his techniques, seldom throwing himself out of position. Whether Tavares is sticking his opponent with his jab or crushing their lead leg with low kicks, the Xtreme Couture product does a good job of building one thing off of the other.

That said, Tavares is not beyond getting caught by counters or aggressive strikers, which means he'll need to be on his best behavior when trading with Silva.

Although "Blindado" often gets labeled as a brawler at first glance, Silva brings some effective tactics to the table.

A member of the Evolucao Thai camp, Silva is no stranger to the fires of striking exchanges.

Offensively, Silva is good about waiting for certain cage positions or guard styles to appear before blitzing. And despite Silva's propensity to wing some wild hooks, the former M-1 champion does quite well when looking to counter, typically punctuating exchanges with hard leg kicks.

Silva is also a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, but I doubt he has the intentions or ability to force that kind of game on Tavares – who traditionally fights best opposite that sort of approach.

Tavares vs. Silva Pick

The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the American fighter, listing Tavares -160 and Silva +130 as of this writing.

First off, as a fellow Hawaiian who trains at Xtreme Couture, this is definitely a fight with which I need to state my bias for Tavares and his team.

That said, I am admittedly somewhat surprised to see money trickling in on Tavares at the betting window.

Aside from MMA gamblers and pundits alike often overlooking Tavares, Silva is a dangerous fighter who seems like he's always one exchange away from changing the complexion of a fight.

Although I'll probably still play Tavares to pull away down the stretch with jabs and leg kicks for a decision win (which currently can be found in the neighborhood of +195 at FanDuel), I believe that the best plays for this fight involve investing in the totals.

For example, the "over 2.5 rounds" can currently be found at plus money in some houses (+105), which is a solid price when you consider the durability of both parties.

Silva, though nearly out of it by the end, survived shots from "Poatan" Pereira that would have put out most men on planet Earth. Tavares, on the other hand, has proven his toughness and shown his Hawaiian chin on multiple occasions despite owning some stoppage losses on his resume.

So, whether you're messing around with SGPs or are searching for a potential hedge, I suggest taking a gander at the total markets for this fight.

The Pick: Tavares-Silva over 2.5 rounds (+105 at WynnBET) | Bet to -110

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