UFC Vegas 72 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Caio Borralho vs. Michał Oleksiejczuk: Bet on Volatility in Co-main Event (Saturday, Saturday April 29)

UFC Vegas 72 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Caio Borralho vs. Michał Oleksiejczuk: Bet on Volatility in Co-main Event (Saturday, Saturday April 29) article feature image

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC middleweight Caio Borralho of Brazil

  • The UFC Vegas 72 co-main event on Saturday night features Caio Borralho vs. Michał Oleksiejczuk.
  • Borralho is a significant favorite heading into the middleweight bout.
  • Below, MMA expert Dan Tom breaks down the matchup and explains why he's betting on the fight's total.

Caio Borralho vs. Michał Oleksiejczuk Odds

Borralho Odds
Oleksiejczuk Odds
2.5 (-150 / +120)
UFC Apex in Las Vegas
9 p.m. ET
Odds as of Saturday and via Caesars

The UFC Vegas 72 co-main event in Las Vegas features a middleweight matchup between Caio Borralho and Michal Oleksiejczuk.

Garnering attention during his dual appearances on his season of the Contender Series, Borralho has received the promotional treatment that often comes with being tied to a project with Dana White's name attached to it.

For example, despite the disparity in UFC experience between these two, Borralho finds himself in his third co-headliner in just four fights (as opposed to Oleksiejczuk's two opportunities in 11 UFC appearances).

Nevertheless, Olekseijczuk has been seeing some new life since dropping down to his natural weight class of 185 pounds and is coming off of back-to-back first-round stoppage wins.

Let's break down the fight, which streams on ESPN+ with the rest of UFC Vegas 72 (4:30 p.m. ET).

Tale of the Tape

Avg. Fight Time12:076:44
Weight (pounds)185 lbs.185 lbs.
Reach (inches)75"74"
Date of birth1/16/19932/22/1995
Sig Strikes Per Min2.364.94
SS Accuracy61%50%
SS Absorbed Per Min1.603.98
SS Defense60%64%
Take Down Avg2.230.67
TD Acc75%42%
TD Def50%43%
Submission Avg0.50.0

As alluded to in the previous section, this fight could be much more competitive than how it's being presented on paper.

Despite the betting public and promotion being behind the Borralho, Olekseijczuk offers a fairly consistent form of aggression that can be difficult to deal with.

An inherent pressure fighter, Oleksiejczuk has improved upon his ability to cut the cage and corral opposition into his preferred kill zone along the fence.

Olekseijczuk may appear awkward and janky in practice, but the southpaw always seems to have a firm grasp on his objectives in exchanges, reliably finding his left hand regardless of stance.

Michal Oleksiejczuk landed a wicked uppercut for the KO 😰 #UFC267pic.twitter.com/SVe2ymA6GC

— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) October 30, 2021

The Polish fighter is also a brutal body-puncher, which is something that could serve him well opposite a fleet-of-foot foe such as Borralho.

Although you will often hear commentary referring to Borralho's striking style as "Machida karate-esque," I believe the Brazilian tends to adopt more of a fencing approach (akin to a younger Conor McGregor).

Bouncing in and out of a long southpaw stance, Borralho looks to create counter opportunities that range from checking hooks to level-changing takedowns.

Made good on his second attempt!!

Caio Borralho gets the finish in his 2nd appearance on this season of #DWCS! pic.twitter.com/8AhMOlalNo

— UFC Canada (@UFC_CA) October 20, 2021

Borralho is also sneaky when it comes to getting reads on flying knees, but I suspect that the smarter approach involves leaning on his grappling.

An accoladed judo brown belt who is also a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, Borralho tends to carry a decent grappling edge over a lot of his opposition.

Whether he is executing serviceable shots in the open or going to crafty reversals from a front-headlock position, Borralho offers a lot to think about in closed quarters.

If Borralho is able to get to one of his usual dominant positions, then I'll be curious to see if he has more urgency to force a finish this time around.

Borralho vs. Oleksiejczuk Pick

The oddsmakers and the public are heavily favoring the Brazilian fighter, listing Borralho -370 and Oleksiejczuk +295 as of this writing.

Despite not disagreeing with the designated favorite, I can't stand seeing Contender Series-related line inflation, and I don't blame anyone for taking a small dog shot on Oleksiejczuk for anything near 3-1 odds.

Say what you will about Olekseijczuk's fight IQ and willingness to throw himself into the fire; the Pole packs a serious punch and will offer a test that we've yet to see Borralho answer at this level (being 0-0 opposite UFC-level lefties as opposed to 1-1-1 for Oleksiejczuk).

That said, I'll officially be siding with Borralho for my pick.

Aside from having a grappling edge that's hard to ignore, I suspect that the smaller octagon of the UFC Apex (as well as a dangerous and willing dance partner) will only encourage Borralho to flex his submission skills.

For that reason, I'll probably end up throwing "Borralho by submission" in a round-robin for fun and will be sticking to the "under 2.5 rounds" as the main play.

Not only are we currently getting a discounted line at -159 (as it originally opened at nearly 2-1), but we're also getting great finishing coverage in a fight that has violence and volatility written all over it.

The Pick: Under 2.5 rounds (-159 via BetRivers) | Bet to -170

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