UFC Vegas 75 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Arman Tsarukyan vs. Joaquim Silva: How to Bet a 10-1 Favorite (Saturday, June 17)
Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC lightweight Arman Tsarukyan of Georgia
- The UFC Vegas 75 co-main event features one of the biggest on-paper mismatches in recent UFC history.
- The fight features lightweight Arman Tsarukyan as an -1100 favorite over Joaquim Silva.
- Below, Dan Tom breaks down Tsarukyan vs. Silva and offers his best bet, which is available at close to even money.
Arman Tsarukyan vs. Joaquim Silva Odds
The co-main event for UFC Vegas 75 on Saturday features potential fireworks at lightweight with Arman Tsarukyan vs. Joaquim Silva.
Despite Tsarukyan being deserving of bigger-name opponents, this seems to be a classic case of a dark-horse contender getting stuck on the outskirts of the top five.
In fact, if Tsarukyan's fight with Mateusz Gamrot gets scored the way the majority of the gen pop saw it going, then the Armenian-born Russian could easily be riding a seven-fight winning streak.
Nevertheless, you have to laud the courage of yet another brave Brazilian in Silva for taking this fight.
Silva's lack of activity and losses have caused him to fall into the background of a deep division, but the 34-year-old is an incredibly potent product who will have his chance to remind the masses of his power this Saturday.
Tale of the Tape
|Avg. Fight Time||13:38||9:04|
|Weight (pounds)||155 lbs.||155 lbs.|
|Date of birth||10/11/1996||2/5/1989|
|Sig Strikes Per Min||3.56||4.08|
|SS Absorbed Per Min||1.93||4.58|
|Take Down Avg||3.30||0.21|
Despite some suspecting that this could look like a striker versus grappler matchup, I believe that both men are incredible athletes who have become well-rounded fighters.
Silva, who looks like he was designed by Hasboro's creative team, appears to be as powerful as his stature would suggest.
Thankfully for the bricked-up Brazilian, Silva has some solid striking skills to go along with his mass.
Joaquim Silva starts the finishing sequence with a NASTY flying knee 😳 #UFCVegas61
— MMAFighting.com (@MMAFighting) October 1, 2022
Hailing from the renowned Evolucao Thai team, Silva possesses heavy hooks and crosses that appear hardwired into him – both coming forward and off the counter. And when he's feeling in stride, devastating knees aren't usually far behind.
Although Silva is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt with solid wrestling and scrambling in tow, seldom will you see him utilize it offensively.
Against Tsarukyan, however, Silva will likely be forced to reach deep into his tool bag.
A relentless worker in all phases, Tsarukyan allows little room for breath in his fights.
On the feet, Tsarukyan does a good job at staying busy with feints and prods off his lead hand.
Counting the minutes until Arman Tsarukyan fight day pic.twitter.com/L8NR5lc8R0
— The Filthy Casual (@MMAfilthycasual) June 11, 2023
Not only does this help the 26-year-old draw out offense, but it also affords him opportunities to counter or set up big kicks.
Tsarukyan is also a superb wrestler, so no one should be shocked if he changes to those phases in the smaller octagon. The eight-year pro isn't the most submission-hungry grappler, but he does well with punishing ground strikes and positional rides (that could kill some clock for those weighing out totals for this fight).
Tsarukyan vs. Silva Pick
The oddsmakers and the public are heavily favoring the ranked fighter, listing Tsarukyan -1000 and Silva +650 as of this writing.
Given the long odds on Tsarukyan in this volatile sport that is MMA, you don't owe anyone an explanation for taking a small shot on Silva at these prices (as this feels like a classic dog-or-pass situation from a moneyline perspective).
However, if you're looking for a cheaper angle at playing the big favorite, then I suggest looking at the TKO/KO props, which are currently in the neighborhood of -125 across the market.
I thought about going contrarian by taking Tsarukyan by decision or betting the over at plus-money odds, but Silva has a style that can allow for early finishes.
Couple that with Silva's propensity to eat left-sided strikes, and I believe that Tsarukyan's left hook and high kicks will be extra potent whenever they're on their feet.
That said, I suspect that a late ground-and-pound stoppage is a much more likely result for Tsarukya (who is coming in to make a statement).
I'll stand by my lean of Tsarukyan by TKO for those willing to lay the chalk, but I suggest taking a gander at things like Silva by KO (+1200) for bonus sprinkles and potential hedges.