NASCAR Gander RV 400 Matchup Odds, Picks: A Head-to-Head Between 2 Favorites

Credit:

Matthew O’Haren, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Joey Logano

  • The Gander RV 400 takes place at 3 p.m. ET on Sunday afternoon at Pocono Raceway.
  • Nick Giffen shares his thoughts on two matchup bets, including Joey Logano vs. Denny Hamlin

Today’s Gander RV 400 at Pocono Raceway (3:00 p.m. ET, NBCSN) looks to be free of any weather issues, so that makes betting head-to-head props more of a sure thing than some of the questionable weather situations of the past.

For Pocono, the key statistical predictors are:

  • Pocono driver rating (last eight races)
  • Flat track quality pass percentage (last eight races)
  • Year-to-date quality pass percentage
  • Practice times
  • Qualifying position

Early lines present tough value in head-to-head props, but I have found one head-to-head and one group bet that offer value for today’s race. As more books post props, I’ll add to this article, so be sure to check back for updates.

All odds as of 7:30 a.m. ET on Sunday.

Joey Logano +130 over Denny Hamlin

I like both of these drivers as bets to win if you shop around for the correct lines. But how do they fare about in a head-to-head matchup against each other?

My numbers show Logano as a small favorite over Hamlin, but the edge is razor thin. Logano boasts the superior year-to-date driver rating and starting position, while Hamlin owns the edge in track history and track type performance. The practice margins are nearly a wash, so in all this match becomes a tossup.

Both of these drivers have two wins in 2019, so they’re playing to win. With all things equal, give me the juice on Logano. I’d take him down to +110.

Michael McDowell +260 to Win Group F

Group odds:

  • Ryan Preece +220
  • Michael McDowell +260
  • Darrell Wallace Jr. +260
  • Ty Dillon +335

Pocono is one of McDowell’s best tracks, with no finishes worse than 24th during his time at Leavine Family Racing and Front Row Motorsports, including a finish of 16th in this race last year.

That string of top-24 finishes also includes a 20th-place finish earlier this year. In that race, Wallace, Preece and Dillon finished  21, 23 and 27 respectively. Looking at practice times, Preece and McDowell were also in another tier over Wallace and Dillon in practice in both sessions.

My model gives a slight nod to McDowell over Preece, but it’s very tight. As a result, I’ll take the longer odds on McDowell than Preece. Wallace and Dillon are on a lower tier in the model.

Sunday Updates

Here are some other prop bets I like for today’s race

  • Kevin Harvick (-145) over Martin Truex Jr.
  • Ryan Preece (-125) over Ty Dillon
  • Joey Logano (-120) over Brad Keselowski
  • Denny Hamlin (-105) over Martin Truex Jr.
  • Joey Logano (-105) over Martin Truex Jr.
  • Brad Keselowski (+125) over Martin Truex Jr.
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