NASCAR at Charlotte Odds, Betting Pick: Price Is Key for Kyle Larson vs. Chase Elliott in Bank of America ROVAL 400

NASCAR at Charlotte Odds, Betting Pick: Price Is Key for Kyle Larson vs. Chase Elliott in Bank of America ROVAL 400 article feature image
Credit:

Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images. Pictured: NASCAR Cup Series drivers Chase Elliott (No. 9) and Kyle Larson (No. 5) race

  • Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson have dominated NASCAR Cup Series road-course races so far this season.
  • Unsurprisingly, sportsbooks have pitted the two Hendrick Motorsports drivers against each other for Sunday's Bank of America ROVAL 400 at Charlotte Motor Speedway.
  • Because both drivers are so good at this track type, price is key when betting Elliott vs. Larson at Charlotte's Roval on Sunday.

I love NASCAR road course racing.

And when it comes to these circuits in the NASCAR Cup Series, Chase Elliott is the king of the road courses.

As RJ Kraft detailed for NASCAR.com, Elliott has dominated at this track type in recent years, posting six wins and nine top-five finishes in the past 10 road-course races, including back-to-back wins on the Roval at Charlotte Motor Speedway.

As I alluded to, dominant.

But this season a new challenger has come for the road-course crown, and it is none other than Elliott’s Hendrick Motorsports teammate Kyle Larson.

With this in mind, Barstool Sportsbook has pitted the two drivers against one another in a head-to-head matchup for Sunday’s Bank of America ROVAL 400 (2 p.m. ET, NBC) with Elliott a -167 favorite over Larson (+130).

Be sure to follow me on Twitter (@PJWalsh24) for any additional bets I make for this weekend’s NASCAR action at Charlotte Motor Speedway.

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NASCAR at Charlotte Roval Betting Pick

*Odds as of Friday morning

So far this season, Larson has two wins, one runner-up and one third-place finish, compared to Elliott’s two wins, one runner-up and two fourth-place runs over the Cup Series’ six road-course races thus far.

When it comes to results, these two are very evenly-matched across that sample of similar races.

In addition, NASCAR’s loop data shows that Elliott and Larson are neck-and-neck at the road-course races this season as well.

Elliott’s 120.8 driver rating on these circuits is tops in the Cup Series this year, but Larson is right on his heels with the second-best rating (119.3).

In fact, Larson has led the most laps and has the best average running position in the series thus far on road-course layouts, with Elliott, of course, ranking second in each category.

And wouldn’t you know it? When it comes to the most fast laps run over those six races, Elliott and Larson are tied for the most.

Based on the data above, this matchup seems like it should be close to a pick’em, but it’s not.

At +130, we need Larson to best Elliott 43.48% of the time to break even, while Elliott would have to finish ahead of his Hendrick teammate 62.55% of time to warrant a wager on Chase.

Despite Elliott’s two straight wins on this circuit, I just can’t justify the -167 price as I see this driver matchup as essentially a coin-flip for Sunday’s Bank of America ROVAL 400.

Therefore, give me Larson at the very nice underdog price of +130.

The Bet: Larson +130 over Elliott

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