2022 NASCAR Cup Series Win Total Over/Unders & Prop Bets: Find Value By Fading Last Season’s Overreactions
Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images. Pictured: NASCAR Cup Series driver William Byron
The calendar has flipped to February, meaning the start of the new NASCAR season is almost upon us.
While the 2022 Daytona 500 won’t go green until Feb. 20, the Busch Clash — a preseason exhibition race — will unofficially get the season underway on Sunday night (6 p.m. ET, FOX).
This year’s edition of the Busch Clash, which has traditionally been held at Daytona International Speedway, will take place on a quarter-mile paved oval inside of the LA Coliseum.
With the season rapidly approaching, sportsbooks have posted season-long odds that are similar to those of other sports, like win total over/unders, props and even head-to-head total wins matchups for many drivers.
In 2022, the NASCAR Cup Series will be racing its new “Next Gen” car, meaning that it’s back to the drawing board for teams, drivers and oddsmakers.
To be frank, there’s very little information available for sportsbooks to lean on to create lines, forcing them to rely on what happened last season.
This has resulted in a handful of overreactions to the results 2021 that are simply too drastic for my tastes.
So, here are three bets I’m making now ahead of the 2022 NASCAR season.
2022 NASCAR Win Total Over/Under & Prop Bet Picks
*Odds as of Feb. 3 and via DraftKings Sportsbook
William Byron Under 2.5 Wins
This number is absurd.
Pauses for screenshots to send to @OldTakesExposed once Byron secures his third win
But all jokes aside, I just don’t understand this over/under.
As those of you who have followed me in the past know, I LOVE Byron’s talent and typically find any excuse to bet on him, but in this instance I have to fade Willy B.
To be fair, there is certainly a scenario in which Hendrick Motorsports gets a jump on the rest of the field with the new car and Byron matures even more as a driver, resulting in a monster season.
However, I find that unlikely enough to confidently bet the under in this prop at -115.
Through four NASCAR Cup Series seasons, which is 144 total races, Byron has won just two races, so expecting him to surpass that in just one season is a tough ask for me.
The bet: Byron — Under 2.5 Wins (-115)
Kyle Busch (-115) to Win More Races Than William Byron
Here’s another way to fade Byron in 2022 … what could go wrong?
As I detailed above, Byron has just two wins through four Cup Series seasons, breaking down to 0.5 wins per year.
On the other hand, Kyle Busch has notched 59 wins through 17 full-time Cup Series seasons for an average of 3.47 wins per year.
This very bet would have seemed insane prior to the start of the 2021 season and is a perfect example of sportsbooks overreacting to last year’s results instead of taking in these drivers’ entire bodies of work.
The bet: Busch (-115) to Win More Races Than Byron
Kyle Busch (+145) to Win More Races Than Denny Hamlin
I believe Busch is poised for a huge year.
In fact, I ranked him as my No. 1 overall driver heading into the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series season because the combination of his raw talent and Joe Gibbs Racing’s (JGR) equipment should allow him to adapt to the Next Gen car more quickly than most other drivers.
Now, that doesn’t mean that those same factors can’t catapult Denny Hamlin to a huge season either, but there’s no way this price should be this lopsided.
With Busch ranked as my top driver for the 2022 Cup Series season, I obviously believe that he should be favored over his JGR teammate in this season-long matchup.
And, at the very worst, this should be -115 on both sides, so I’d gladly jump on the +145 price with Busch for a bet that should be priced no worse than a coin flip.
The bet: Busch (+145) to Win More Races Than Hamlin