NASCAR Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 Betting Odds, Picks: The Lone Long-Shot Worth Betting

Credit:

Credit: Peter Casey-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: NASCAR Cup Series driver Kyle Larson (42) and NASCAR Cup Series driver Kevin Harvick (4).

  • The Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 takes place at 3 p.m. ET, NBCSN at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.
  • Nick Giffen looks at one potential long-shot future bet for Sunday's race.

NASCAR makes its way to New England for the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway (NHMS). This marks the fourth race of the Cup Series season at a short, flat track.

NHMS is a 1-mile oval with two straights followed by two 180-degree turns, with banking that slightly varies from two to seven degrees.

The factors that are statistically significant in my model this weekend are:

  • Long-run practice speed
  • Qualifying position
  • Overall flat track performance
  • New Hampshire performance

I’ll also give a special nod to performance at NHMS from 2013-2015 for longer-tenured drivers, because those years featured higher downforce levels than the 2016-2018 seasons.

It’s often tough betting favorites in NASCAR, and this weekend is no exception. I’m not thrilled with the odds currently posted across the industry for the top-five favorites.

As a result, I have only one longer-shot outright bet to win. I may post more bets to win, or some top-three,-five, and -10 futures to this piece as more books release lines Sunday morning.

*All odds as of 10:30 p.m. ET on Saturday. A quick explainer on the odds below: A $10 wager on +2500 would profit $250.


Kyle Larson +2500

Larson will be moving to a backup car after an incident in practice, which is the primary reason for his long odds. However, in 2017 Larson started dead last in 39th, and finished in second in the first of two New Hampshire races that year.

NHMS is also a good track for Larson. He has four top-three finishes at NHMS in nine career Cup Series starts at NHMS, including a third and second in 2014 when the aero package most closely resembled this year’s rule set.

Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: NASCAR Cup Series driver Kyle Larson (42).

If his backup car races as well as his primary, then practice was encouraging for the 26-year old. He was sixth in 10-lap average, but improved to second over 15 consecutive laps, leapfrogging superstars Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski, Martin Truex Jr., and Kevin Harvick as the lap counter increased.

Larson is available at William Hill at this price, but you can find lines close to this across the industry. I’d bet Larson down to +2000.

Additionally, keep an eye out for top-three and -five bets on Larson. These will have a better chance of hitting. I’ll update this section if one of these types of bets presents enough value.

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