NASCAR at Kansas Odds, Pick & Prediction: The Plus-Money Prop To Bet for Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400
Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images. Pictured: Matt DiBenedetto, driver of the #21 Reese/Draw-Tite Ford
I often talk about shopping for the best line whenever making a bet no matter the sport, and the theory is quite simple.
Different sportsbooks have different liabilities and therefore may vary in terms of the odds they’re offering.
So by taking an extra minute, savvy bettors can ensure they’re always locking in the best numbers, which can have a real effect on their bottom line at the end of the season.
And now that more and more sportsbooks are offering NASCAR odds across the country, this process of shopping the market has never been more effective.
In fact, there’s a top-10 finish prop bet for Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas that varies widely depending on the sportsbook, so much so that it’s a really nice bet at some shops, while being a total stay away at others.
Let me explain.
NASCAR at Kansas Betting Pick
When it comes to NASCAR prop-betting opportunities for Kansas, I’ve had my eye on Matt DiBenedetto all week.
As I tweeted back on Tuesday, DiBenedetto has posted the 10th-best driver rating on the right-side tire combination that the NASCAR Cup Series will use this weekend.
Top 10 driver ratings for 5 races run on right-side tire combo for Kansas:
4. Ky. Busch
8 Truex Jr.
— PJ Walsh (@PJWalsh24) October 19, 2021
That includes a fourth-place finish at this very racetrack back in May.
However, this didn’t mean that I was blindly looking to bet him in props — it always depends on the price.
For example, Matty D. to finish in the top 10 at DraftKings is -115 as of the time of writing.
On the other hand, that very same bet is available at +175 odds at WynnBET.
That’s a massive difference.
To put it in perspective, the break-even point for a wager at -115 odds is 53.49%.
That means in order for you to feel comfortable betting on DiBenedetto to finish in the top 10 at -115, you have to believe that he’ll accomplish that feat more than 53.49% of the time.
Now, the implied probability on a wager with +175 odds is just 36.36%.
I don’t have to tell you that the a break-even difference of 53.49% and 36.36% is extremely significant.
In fact, the gap is so vast that I’m all over DiBenedetto for a top 10 at +175, but would pass entirely at -115.
The Bet: DiBenedetto +175 for a top-10