NASCAR Camping World 400 Matchup Odds, Picks: How to Bet the Chevys

NASCAR Camping World 400 Matchup Odds, Picks: How to Bet the Chevys article feature image
Credit:

Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kyle Larson’s car

  • Nick Giffen offers his favorite matchup bets for Sunday's Camping World 400 at Chicagoland Speedway.

Today’s Camping World 400 (3 p.m. ET on NBCSN) will take place just a few hour after morning inspection, which could drastically change the starting lineup. Starting lineup is important, because the market frequently overvalues driver starting position. Bettors can take advantage of lines that are incorrect thanks to a driver’s starting position.

Two opportunities to leverage starting position are available even before inspection takes place. However, be sure to tune in during and after inspection as lines are modified for potential overreactions to inspection failures. I’ll add more prop values as lines are adjusted for the Sunday morning inspection process.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +135 over Austin Dillon

Yes, Dillon is starting on the provisional pole, but that has done him no good so far in 2019. To date, he has led zero laps from the pole despite winning two previous pole positions this year.

Dillon’s best 1.5-mile finish is 14th in four races with aero ducts, while Stenhouse has three finishes better than 14th in those same four races. Further, Dillon’s 14th-place finish came at the track with the newest surface, while that was Stenhouse’s worst finish. The roles are flipped, as the Cup Series is at a track with higher tire wear than any of the four prior races.

Looking at practice times, Dillon did indeed beat Stenhouse by a full mph over 10 consecutive laps. However, Dillon’s run came at the start of the final practice session, whereas Stenhouse made his run later in the session, as the track took on rubber and heated up, which will be closer to race conditions.

That should close the gap between the two substantially.

Dillon’s pit stall advantage should not be ignored, but practice times and 1.5-mile performance this year — especially at tracks with medium-to-high tire wear — lead me to bet Stenhouse down to +110.

Keep an Eye On…

The Chevrolet cars have been strong in practice as well as the recent 1.5-mile races, leading me to believe the manufacturer is making strides.

The top two Chevy teams — Hendrick Motorsports (HMS) and Chip Ganassi Racing (CGR) — have drastically improved as the season has progressed. At 1.5-mile tracks using the aero ducts, Chevy’s top-two teams have the following average finish progression:

  • 12.0 at Las Vegas
  • 10.2 at Texas
  • 7.8 at Kansas
  • 7.0 at Charlotte

In other words, the Chevrolet gang have been consistently improving as the season has progressed.

Looking at specific drivers, Kyle Larson finished a close second in a memorable finish last year and looked strong over the long run in practice this year, coming inside the top five in 15-lap average. Other top five cars included the three Hendrick Chevys of Alex Bowman, Chase Elliott, and Jimmie Johnson.

This line is available at +275 at the DraftKings Sportsbook, and while I’d bet Chevy at that price, I prefer to hold out for a better line as more books post this prop.

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