NASCAR Odds Atlanta: Picks, Predictions for Sunday’s Ambetter Health 400

A common quality of bettors who win over the long haul is understanding when (and when not) to put their bankrolls at risk.

If you see an edge with NASCAR odds, exploit it. If not, then preserve your bankroll.

I'm self-aware enough to know I don't have much of an edge at a track like Atlanta Motor Speedway this weekend, especially after seeing Saturday's Camping World Truck Series and XFINITY Series races.

This is not meant to sound like a knock on the racing or the product itself, just that I don't have confidence in my ability to accurately predict what we'll see during Sunday's Ambetter Health 400 (3 p.m. ET, FOX).

I have one NASCAR pick for Atlanta already from earlier this week and am adding one, and only one, additional bet on a group I do believe is severely mispriced for reasons that aren't valid.

Let me explain in my preview of today's NASCAR Cup Series race.

NASCAR Odds, Pick for Atlanta

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I'm keying in on Group F at Caesars Sportsbook, which looks like this:

• Todd Gilliland: +120
• Carson Hocevar: +260
• Josh Berry: +260
• Harrison Burton: +500

I can't argue that Gilliland shouldn't be the favorite here, but +120 in a group of four drivers at a track as unpredictable as Atlanta seems quite short.

In addition, Hocevar and Berry, both Cup Series rookies, sitting at +260 each forces Burton all the way to +500 in a four-driver group.

I wish I could spend this portion of the article waxing poetic about how Burton has performed at Atlanta and similar tracks, but I can't.

This pick is solely based on the fact that an experienced Cup Series driver, in terms of this grouping, in very good superspeedway equipment has the longest NASCAR odds, by far.

Give me Williams for a top 10 (from earlier in the week) and give me Burton at 5-1 to win Group F at Caesars, and I'll call it a day.

The Bet:Harrison Burton (+500) to Win Group F at Caesars