NASCAR Odds for Phoenix: Best Bet & Expert Pick for Sunday’s Shriners Children’s 500

For the first time this season, the NASCAR Cup Series will roll out the short-track package for Sunday's Shriners Children’s 500 (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX) at Phoenix Raceway.

Sure, this is the same package that cars ran at the Busch Light Clash last month, but the tracks, racing and format are so different that it's tough to take much from that event.

As a result, I'm taking my time this week to fill out my NASCAR picks for Phoenix – specifically waiting to see what practice and qualifying look like on Friday and Saturday.

On the other hand, I'm pleasantly surprised to see finishing position over/unders posted at Caesars Sportsbook and have decided to go ahead and take a position on how well Bubba Wallace will finish in Sunday's Shriners Children's 500.

NASCAR Odds, Pick for Phoenix

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Wallace's finishing position over/under is listed at 17.5 at Caesars.

To be frank, I like the under, meaning I'm expecting the 23XI Racing driver to finish 17th or better on Sunday.

To start, Wallace would have cashed this bet in both Phoenix races last season with finishes of 14th and 10th.

His underlying metrics in those two races suggest those results weren't flukes, either.

In addition to Wallace's 12th-place average, which ranked eighth among all drivers, the No. 23 Toyota also posted the ninth-best average running position at Phoenix last season.

This tells us that Wallace didn't steal those finishes. In fact, he essentially finished where he was running on track in those two races.

Further, word out of a short-track test held by NASCAR at Phoenix in December was that the Toyotas were the best of the cars there.

I'm not making this bet solely on rumors from a NASCAR test, but it does provide one more check mark in Wallace's favor for Sunday's race.

The bet: Bubba Wallace Under 17.5 (-130) Finishing Position – Caesars