NASCAR Odds, Picks & Predictions for Sonoma: Best Bets for Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350
Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images. Pictured: NASCAR Cup Series driver Kurt Busch
For the second year in a row, the Hendrick Motorsports teammates of Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott will lead the field to green at Sonoma (4 p.m. ET, FS1).
Last year, Larson dominated from the pole en route to a clean sweep of both stages, and the race victory.
With Larson and Elliott repeating their front row performance from last year, but at such short odds, I'm looking elsewhere for betting value.
In last year's race two other drivers pulled off top-six finishes, have shown speed this weekend and are undervalued relative to other drivers in their respective manufacturer groups.
NASCAR at Sonoma Picks
*Odds as of Sunday morning
Kurt Busch Top Toyota +500
Busch has seven finishes of seventh or better in his last 10 starts at Sonoma, and rolls off 11th in today's race.
The elder Busch brother was fast in practice as well, posting the second best five- and 10-lap average speed among the Toyotas, behind only his brother, Kyle.
With a win in the bag, Kurt is probably in good enough shape to avoid having to points race, meaning he can take the optimal strategy to finish as high as possible.
My model gives Busch a 19.9% chance to finish as the top Toyota. That means he should be priced at +400 instead of +500, making this a solid value at BetMGM.
The Bet: Kurt Busch Top Toyota +500 | Bet to: +450
Joey Logano Top Ford +425
Like Busch, Logano can focus on the race-winning strategy. Except in Logano's case, it's even more certain he will do so.
His two wins make him a lock for the playoffs, freeing him up to key in on the race win.
Last year, Logano started 13th and finished fourth, and I can see a similar performance today.
At Circuit of the Americas, Logano was fast, but had several spins and incidents relegating him to a 31st-place finish. However, I'd rather focus on his speed.
An incident-free race at Sonoma is likely to mean he'll be one of, if not the top Ford. BetMGM has Logano listed at +425 to finish as the top blue oval.
That equates to implied odds of 19%. However, my model gives him a 25.2% chance to bring home the honors as top Ford.
The Bet: Joey Logano Top Ford +425 | Bet to: +350
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