NASCAR Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 Odds, Betting Predictions: 2 Prop Bet Picks for NASCAR at Texas (Oct. 25)
Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images. Pictured: Alex Bowman, driver of the #88 Chevrolet, pits
- NASCAR's Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 at Texas Motor Speedway will start at 3:30 p.m. ET on Sunday.
- Due to little tire wear and the opportunity for strategy, PJ Walsh has two props offering value for Sunday's race.
Kevin Harvick has won the last three fall races at Texas Motor Speedway and is the +260 favorite for Sunday’s Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 (3:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN).
From an outright winner standpoint, the means bettors will likely have to decide whether it’s smarter to bet big on Harvick or try to beat him with a handful of other drivers.
I’ll leave that web for Nick Giffen to untangle. On the other hand, Texas’ smooth surface makes it easier for longer shots to steal better-than-expected finishes with tire strategy, making prop bets better values than at typical tracks.
With this in mind, here are two props for Sunday’s Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 at Texas that I’m grabbing right now.
NASCAR at Texas Odds, Betting Picks
Alex Bowman (+450) for a Top-5 Finish
The No. 88 Chevy has really stepped it up at intermediates since the start of NASCAR’s playoffs with Bowman’s average finish of 4.0 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and Kansas Speedway (both 1.5-mile tracks like Texas) the best in the series this postseason.
Bowman has also run the fourth-most fast laps and has the fourth-best driver rating over those two races, showing that he’s not just stealing top-five finishes, but has consistently shown top-five speed as well.
At +450, I’m backing Bowman to accomplish that feat for a third straight race on a 1.5-mile circuit.
Chris Buescher (+1000) for a Top-10 Finish
Buescher should certainly be considering a longshot, but a 400-1 longshot is pretty insane. No, that doesn’t mean I’m betting on him to win at those odds, but it’s important to note that price because that’s also the number sportsbooks will use as a basis for prop prices, like top-10 finishes.
Considering the No. 17 Ford had the 9th-best driver rating at Texas earlier this year and also posted top 10s at 1.5-mile tracks Charlotte Motor Speedway and Las Vegas, Buescher’s 10-1 odds to manage that feat on Sunday is worth a wager.
Odds of 10-1 imply a 9.09% chance, and considering that Buescher has two top 10s in eight races at similar tracks for a 20% top-10 finish rate, while posting a top-10 driver rating at Texas in July, this number has a very attractive betting edge.