3 NBA Props for Friday: Rubio Over/Under 14.5 Points?

3 NBA Props for Friday: Rubio Over/Under 14.5 Points? article feature image

The FantasyLabs Player Props tool has identified a few exploitable props on today’s nine-game slate. Here are three I like for games starting at 7:30 p.m., 8:30 p.m. and 9 p.m. ET.

Hawks PG Isaiah Taylor Under 17 Points (-125 at Bovada)

7:30 p.m. ET

Taylor is one of the top DFS values on the board today with Dennis Schroder (ankle) out, but that doesn’t mean taking over 17 points is a good bet. Sure, in his last two games Taylor scored 26 points in 32 minutes last Sunday at Houston and 20 points in 29 minutes on Wednesday at Minnesota, but he shot 16-of-28 (57.1%) overall and 3-of-7 (42.9%) from deep over that span. So, while recency bias is pulling us toward the over, regression says that kind of shooting is unsustainable for a player who shoots 43.2% from the field and 27.0% from deep in his career. The FantasyLabs Player Props tool gives this prop a Bet Quality rating of 10 of 10.

Mavericks PG Dennis Smith Jr. Under 17 Points (-115 at 5Dimes)

8:30 p.m. ET

As the Mavericks host the Timberwolves, it’s important to note that Smith tends to be more of a facilitator at home, where he has a 27.4% usage rate compared to 30.4% on the road. As a result, he’s averaging fewer points (14.9) but more assists (5.2) at home than on the road (15.5 and 4.7). Further, Tom Thibodeau’s squad has defended Smith well, holding him to 13.0 points per game on 37.0% shooting in two previous meetings.

Jazz PG Ricky Rubio Under 14.5 Points (-125 at 5Dimes)

9 p.m. ET

The Jazz host Memphis tonight, and, like Smith, Rubio tends to be more passive at home. Rubio’s usage rate is a point lower at home compared to on the road, resulting in an average of only 11.6 points per game at home compared to 13.9 on the road. Then there’s the blowout factor: Utah is a 15.5-point favorite, and Rubio played only 26 minutes in the team’s last blowout win, a 110-91 drubbing of the Warriors last Sunday.

Pictured above: Ricky Rubio.
Photo credit: Chris Nicoll, USA TODAY Sports.