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Today’s prop article is getting posted a little later than usual, so I’m only going to focus on games starting at 8 p.m. ET or later. Still, the FantasyLabs Player Props tool has identified a handful of potentially exploitable prop bets in those games. Each of the following props has a Bet Quality of at least nine out of 10, and there are a variety of other high-grading props not included in the article as well.
Here are five bets that I have my sights set on for tonight’s slate:
Pacers C Myles Turner over seven rebounds (-114 at BetOnline)
8:00 p.m. ET
Turner has had a disappointing sophomore season but is starting to turn things around. He had at least eight rebounds in three straight games prior to playing just 15.5 minutes in his last game. Today’s matchup with the Bucks should also be a good one for his rebounding potential, with Milwaukee owning the second-worst team rebound rate in the league. Turner has averaged just six rebounds per game in his first two meetings with the Bucks this year but only played 24 minutes in each. He should see more time in this game if he can stay out of foul trouble.
Thunder PG Russell Westbrook over 10 rebounds (-135 at Bovada)
9:00 p.m. ET
Westbrook has been on a rebounding tear of late, pulling down at least 11 boards in five straight games. He’s in an awesome spot tonight against the Suns, who are currently allowing the second-most team rebounds per game at 54.1. They’re also playing at the fourth fastest-pace and shooting the third-worst percentage from the field this season, which is a combination that leads to a lot of missed shots.
Jazz PG Ricky Rubio under 12.5 points (-125 at Bovada)
10:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
Rubio has seen has playing time decrease a bit after returning from an injury, playing fewer than 29.5 minutes in each of his past three games. Today’s game against the Timberwolves doesn’t figure to feature a ton of offense either: Both teams rank in the bottom eight in pace this season, and the 209-point over/under is the lowest total on today’s slate.
Bulls PG Kris Dunn under 5.5 assists (+110 at BetOnline)
8:00 p.m. ET
Dunn hasn’t eclipsed five assists in any game since returning from an injury earlier this month, which makes getting better than even money on this prop pretty appealing. Spending more time with Zach LaVine has had a clear impact on Dunn’s assist numbers, with his assist rate dropping by 12.7 percentage points when sharing the court with him. The Mavericks are tied for 26th in pace this season, so this game should feature fewer possessions, as well.
Knicks C Enes Kanter under 11 rebounds (-140 at Bovada)
10:30 p.m. ET
The Knicks are clearly playing for the future at this point in the season, which has resulted in drastically less playing time for Kanter of late. He’s failed to crack 23 minutes in each of his past three games, and he’s projected for a similar workload today in the FantasyLabs NBA Player Models. Kanter has still managed to grab 12 rebounds in two of those three contests, but those games have come against weak rebounding teams in the Magic and Celtics. He shouldn’t have nearly as easy a time tonight, with virtually all of his minutes like to come against DeAndre Jordan, one of the league’s top rebounders.
Top photo: Russell Westbrook; credit: Sergio Estrada- USA Today Sports