The Cleveland Cavaliers (26-20) and Orlando Magic (23-20) will face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:00 p.m. ET from the Kia Center in Orlando, Fla. The game will broadcast live on FDSOH.
The Magic are 1.5-point favorites over the Cavaliers on the spread (Magic -1.5), with the over/under set at 230.5 total points. Orlando is a -118 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Cleveland is -102 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Cavaliers vs. Magic predictions and NBA picks for Saturday, January 24.
Cavaliers vs Magic Prediction, Picks
- Cavaliers vs Magic pick: Under 230.5 (-115)
My Magic vs. Cavaliers best bet is on the Under at 230.5 total points, with the best price currently available at DraftKings, but make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Cavaliers vs Magic Odds
| Cavaliers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -112 | 230.5 -105o / -115u | -102 |
| Magic Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -108 | 230.5 -105o / -115u | -118 |
Cavaliers vs Magic NBA Preview
The Cavaliers are struggling to replicate their form from the previous campaign, when they won 64 games during the regular season.
Injuries to guards Darius Garland and Max Strus have certainly made things difficult for a team that was looking to make that next step as one of the elites in the Eastern Conference.
Offensively, the Cavaliers have had their issues, as their year-over-year Offensive Efficiency has dropped from 121.0 points per 100 possessions to 116.3. Interestingly, the Cavs are scoring fewer points while playing at a faster pace, with average possessions up to 102.06 from 100.31.
The balance simply isn't right for Cleveland, as Donovan Mitchell is left to do much of the heavy lifting, averaging a career-high 29 points while the Cavaliers struggle to reach even touching distance of their preseason win total, which opened at 56.5.
If we turn to the Magic, they're also falling short of their preseason expectation, given a projected win total of 51.5. To win 52 games, Orlando would need to win 64% of its remaining games, yet its current win percentage is only at .535.
Injuries have also played a role in Orlando's lack of success, with Paolo Banchero missing 10 games and the team's leading scorer, Franz Wagner (22.2 PPG), already missing 17.
Wagner is currently ruled out (soreness) for Saturday's game as he continues to feel the effects of a high ankle sprain that sidelined him for more than a month.
Despite showing signs of struggling to exceed their Vegas win total, the Magic offense has taken a step in the right direction, improving its efficiency from 108.9 to 114.1. Pace of play has also increased dramatically from 96.51 possessions to 100.57.
However, I still have doubts about their offensive capabilities, especially given a total of 230.5 for this matchup.
Cavaliers vs Magic Predictions, Betting Analysis
I prefer to err on the side of caution when I see a total as high as 230.5 that involves the Magic. This season, Orlando is 14-12 to the under when facing a total of 228.5 or more points.
Moreover, our database shows that there's never been a regular-season total this high between the two teams.
If we adjust our parameters to reflect their head-to-head matchups with a total of 225 or higher, the under is 2-1.
With my model showing roughly an 8% edge in favor of the under, that's enough to sanction the play as our best bet.
Pick: Under 230.5 (-115, DraftKings)
Magic vs Cavaliers Betting Trends
