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Coach of the Year is fundamentally an award about beating the market's preseason expectations. The voters aren't necessarily looking directly at win totals, but the market accurately sets an expectation for how good a team should be.
If a team vastly overachieves that consensus baseline, the coach gets the hardware. It's that simple. Let's get into our NBA Coach of the Year picks and predictions for this season.
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NBA Coach of the Year Predictions, Picks
Charles Lee, Hornets (+3000)
By Matt Moore
I am advocating that you stay entirely away from the Hornets' win total, division odds, and team futures this season. I've been trying to figure out all offseason how to rate this team. But this is the exact right way to play them: Charles Lee Coach of the Year at 30-1.
If the Hornets are good, there is no other direction the credit can go. Brandon Miller isn't going to put up MVP numbers. Kon Knueppel won't either. Coby White and Naz Reid aren't winning it. The narrative is going to be: They traded LaMelo Ball and still made the playoffs. Holy crap, Charles Lee is great.
I still have them projected to be a playoff team because they were so good down the stretch last year. Even removing LaMelo, the aggregate of what they added is solid.
You get internal development points, you get a full season of a healthy Coby White and Naz Reid, and you get their draft capital.
The differential of losing LaMelo isn't enough to sink how good they looked the last five months of the season.
Lee finished fourth in COY voting last year, and now he gets the benefit of the expectation bar dropping because his star point guard is out of town.
If Charlotte succeeds, Charles Lee is likely holding this trophy at the end of the year.
Pick: Charles Lee, Hornets (+3000)
Will Hardy, Jazz (+1200)
By Jim Turvey
The Jazz train rolls on. Will Hardy is one of the shorter names in the market at 12-1, but this award is often priced horribly at the start of the season.
To win this, you need to win more than your preseason expectation, win more than you did last year, and win a fair amount overall.
I am betting the Jazz to hit 45 wins, which is probably the absolute baseline for Hardy to get in the conversation. If they get to 45, he'd only be clearing the expectation by about seven games. But if they can reach the high-40s—say, 48 wins—and secure a 5 or 6 seed in the West, he becomes a real candidate.
Hardy is exactly the type of buzzy, hipster, well-respected coach that voters chomp at the bit to reward when the team takes a leap.
Pick: Will Hardy, Jazz (+1200)
Quin Snyder, Hawks (+1200)
By Jim Turvey
Quin Snyder is another highly respected coach staring down a very viable path to this award at 21-1.
The Hawks are being slept on quite a bit. Their starting five-man unit played exceptionally well at the end of last year, and they got a nice rotational bump from the petty Sam Presti trade.
I think Atlanta has the potential to break out and hit the low 50s in wins. They were the team that pressed the Knicks the hardest in the postseason.
If Snyder navigates this roster to the 3-seed in the Eastern Conference, his case will be strong.
Pick: Quin Snyder, Hawks (+1200)
Ime Udoka, Rockets (+2500)
By Jim Turvey
Ime Udoka is probably my favorite overall bet among my Coach of the Year portfolio at 25-1.
The biggest hurdle for Udoka is that the Rockets already won a lot of games last year, so the bar is higher. They probably need to reach about 55 wins to get him the award.
However, because we are seeing deflated win totals across the board due to anti-tanking measures and roster shifts, clearing that bar might be easier than it appears.
If Houston pops as a distinct 3-seed in the West with mid-50s wins, Udoka is going to get the job done.
Pick: Ime Udoka, Rockets (+2500)
JJ Redick, Lakers (+2800)
By Jim Turvey
I am high on the Lakers this season, and JJ Redick at 28-1 fits the exact profile for this award.
Yes, the Lakers won games last year, but their preseason totals dropped because of the roster shift and overall lowered expectations. When you lower the expectations, you make it much easier for a coach to clear the bar.
Redick is already well-respected in basketball circles. If he can guide this Lakers team into the mid-50s in wins, he is going to land right in the middle of the Coach of the Year conversation.
Pick: JJ Redick, Lakers (+2800)
Other NBA Futures Articles
- Moore's 10 Win Total Over/Under Picks
- MVP Picks
- Sixth Man of the Year Picks
- Clutch Player of the Year Picks
- Rookie of the Year Picks
