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Most Improved Player has transformed into an incredibly wonky award. It used to routinely go to players making the leap into All-NBA consideration, but recently we've seen it handed to guys like Dyson Daniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, who weren't even close to that tier.
Despite the shifting criteria, finding players in their early 20s with guaranteed minute increases, new offensive roles, and superior developmental coaching remains the sharpest way to attack the board.
Let's get into our NBA Most Improved Player predictions and picks for this season.
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NBA Most Improved Player Predictions, Picks
Amen Thompson, Rockets (+6000)
By Matt Moore
This is my official best bet of the entire awards slate. I asked several scouts this summer who the most athletic player in the NBA is, and the consensus answer was Amen Thompson.
When you combine that level of natural physical capability with a sharp mind that sees the game incredibly well, you just need skill development. Enter, Chip Engelland — who is now Thompson's shooting coach in Houston.
Look at Engelland's track record: over a three-year band, he took the Nuggets from 23rd in average true shooting to 7.5; he took the Spurs from 8.3 to 6.5; and he took the Thunder from 17th to a top-four unit.
Every single time Engelland shows up, shooting percentages rise across the board.
Amen won't have the pressure of being the primary point guard with Fred VanVleet bringing the ball up. When Thompson presses downhill with an improved jumper, it is going to be terrifying.
At 60-1, this number is preposterous.
Pick: Amen Thompson, Rockets (+6000)
Amen Thompson, Rockets (+6000)
By Jim Turvey
I am fully aligned with Matt on Amen Thompson. He definitely made a leap last season, but there is still so much meat on the bone here.
Having Fred VanVleet in Houston might cut into his raw assist numbers—he probably won't average over five assists a game again—but it is going to dramatically free up his scoring opportunities.
Thompson's field goal attempts per game will almost certainly go up, and with Chip Engelland in the building, his shooting efficiency will likely follow.
If the Rockets are as good as we anticipate, there is a very easy narrative for Amen to become a first-time All-Star, especially if guys like Kevin Durant or Alperen Sengun miss time and he steps up as the lone representative.
Amen is a fan and voter favorite, and at 60-1, his leap will not go unnoticed.
Pick: Amen Thompson, Rockets (+6000)
Ajay Mitchell, Thunder (+3000)
By Jim Turvey
Ajay Mitchell is another player I am targeting in this market. He fits the classic Most Improved mold perfectly.
Mitchell logged 26 minutes per game last season for the Thunder, leaving plenty of room for a minutes increase. If he ends up starting—perhaps if Cason Wallace moves to the bench—I absolutely love his chances of winning this award.
Mitchell could easily elevate his averages to something like 18 points, 4 rebounds, and 4 assists, building a borderline All-Star case. The advanced stats already adore him.
Plus, if Chet Holmgren or Jalen Williams miss time, Mitchell will end up having the ball in his hands a ton. He provides a sturdy floor and a massive ceiling in this market.
Pick: Ajay Mitchell, Thunder (+3000)
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- Clutch Player of the Year Picks
- Rookie of the Year Picks
- Coach of the Year Picks
