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This rookie class has the potential to be phenomenal. Sixty-four of the last 66 Rookie of the Year winners were drafted in the top 11, and since 1990, 26 of 30 winners were top-three picks.
This is not the award to go deep-diving for long shots. The talent at the top of the board is too overwhelming. I am incredibly excited to watch these guys play. So without further ado, here is how we are betting the NBA Rookie of the Year market this season.
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NBA Rookie of the Year Predictions, Picks
Cameron Boozer, Grizzlies (+300)
By Matt Moore
I watched the Grizzlies' first preseason game, and I am fully prepared to build a blood altar to Cameron Boozer and worship him every single night. I am all the way in.
Boozer is simply the most ready-made product in this class. Other rookies are going to have heavy shot variance, but Boozer is going to have nights where he shoots 5-of-13 from the floor and is still the most impactful player on the court.
Boozer operates as a true hub of the offense, generates assists, and rebounds aggressively. He has leaned out, which allows him to confidently guard threes on the perimeter.
The Grizzlies ran a set where he brought the ball up, hit a DHO (dribble hand-off), got the ball back, faked another DHO, and found a cutter for an easy bucket. It was incredible.
If you are betting this market, you should have a position on Boozer.
Pick: Cameron Boozer, Grizzlies (+300)
Caleb Wilson, Bulls (+350)
By Matt Moore
Alongside Boozer, I am also putting a ticket on Caleb Wilson at +350.
Wilson's three-point shooting in Summer League was incredible, especially considering North Carolina actively told him not to take them in college.
If he comes out firing and hitting those shots in the NBA, Wilson's scoring average will almost certainly be higher than Boozer's.
Boozer is a multifaceted engine, but Wilson has that terrifying high-flyer profile—dunk, three, dunk, turnaround jumper.
From a Rookie of the Year standpoint, raw scoring averages are difficult for voters to ignore. Having exposure to both Boozer and Wilson locks down the most realistic outcomes.
Pick: Caleb Wilson, Bulls (+350)
Darius Acuff, Kings (First-Team All-Rookie, +210)
By Jim Turvey
I totally agree with the Cameron Boozer analysis for Rookie of the Year, so I am looking at a slightly different angle for Darius Acuff: First-Team All-Rookie at +210.
If you look at which rookie is going to command the most ball, the most usage, and the most minutes, it's probably going to be Darius Acuff in Sacramento.
Even if the Kings don't offload pieces, Acuff is going to generate the best surface-level box score stats. But voters for Rookie of the Year like to keep an eye toward the future—do they really want to hand the ultimate hardware to Acuff over a potential multi-time All-Star like Boozer? Probably not.
However, Acuff's volume should at least pave the way to him securing a First Team All-Rookie selection. Getting better than 2-1 odds on him to simply out-produce the back half of this lottery class is a great play.
Pick: Darius Acuff First-Team All-Rookie (+210)
Other NBA Futures Articles
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- MVP Picks
- Sixth Man of the Year Picks
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