We have another excellent NBA slate in front of us tonight, and I've been crunching the numbers to find the best spots on the board. From sides and totals to specific matchup angles, I've locked in my favorite plays for the evening.
Let's get into my NBA predictions and expert bets for Thursday, October 22.
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NBA Expert Bets for Thursday, October 22
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:00 p.m. | |
  | 9:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Cavaliers vs. 76ers Spread Pick & Player Props
Cavaliers +3.5 (-115) / Moneyline (+124)
Key Trend: Home favorites coming off a road win in the season opener (Sixers) are 29-47-1 since 2003, including 11-15-1 in the last 10 years and 6-9-1 since the Bubble, via KillerSports.com.
Cleveland’s offense and defense are much different from New York’s. The Sixers’ offense was fast and clunky on Tuesday, but they managed to run their way to a win because the Knicks were slow, clunky, and sloppy.
The Cavaliers are a lot more disciplined offensively because they rely on simpler formulas. Namely, the Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland pick-and-roll. They won’t switch much, and the Sixers won’t oblige anyway, playing more drop coverage—something Garland and Mitchell can tear apart.
The Sixers played at a really fast pace in that first game, which is one way they can hurt Cleveland; the Cavs were 20th in transition defense last season. However, that’s not a sustainable offensive pathway, even with Cleveland’s higher-than-normal turnover count.
On the other side, the Cavaliers will play aggressively at the level in pick-and-rolls, which should take away Tyrese Maxey’s comfort more than New York did. They have the size to hang with Joel Embiid, and the addition of Peyton Watson alongside Jaylon Tyson should help them match up with Paul George.
I have the Cavs slightly favored based on my power ratings. Even though I’m tempted to bump Philly up after that showcase win, it was just one game against a Knicks team that I’m low on this season (though I still bet them anyway despite my power ratings liking Philly).
I’ll play the spot and trend, backing the Cavs to sneak out a win and settle the hype down in the City of Brotherly Love.
Pick: Cavaliers +3.5 (-115) / Moneyline (+124)
Jarrett Allen Over 21.5 Points & Rebounds (-114)
You may have noticed the aging veteran Andre Drummond absolutely smashing the Sixers on Tuesday.
The Sixers have a real issue with center depth and containing rim-running bigs. Embiid can’t get up the floor fast enough, and Adem Bona is undersized.
Throw in the propensity for Jarrett Allen to benefit from lobs against Philly’s drop coverage in the pick-and-roll, plus the fact that Evan Mobley’s rebounding will be limited by having to chase Paul George around the perimeter, and I like Allen to go over here.
Pick: Jarrett Allen Over 21.5 Points & Rebounds (-114)
VJ Edgecombe Over 10.5 Points (-108)
First, the Cavaliers’ transition defense is bad, and VJ Edgecombe knows his best chance of scoring is to run.
Second, if the Cavaliers play more at the level against ballhandlers in screen situations, that’s going to leave the weak side open.
The Sixers can space Embiid out, leaving big gaps underneath that Edgecombe is really good at finding.
This kid is overqualified offensively for his role on this superteam, and against a team like Cleveland, that represents a major opportunity.
Pick: VJ Edgecombe Over 10.5 Points (-108)
Click here for our full Cavaliers vs 76ers betting preview!
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Nuggets vs. Thunder Spread Pick & Player Props
Nuggets +8.5 (-115)
I don’t want the moneyline here; I don’t think they’ll win, but I do think this is a heavy price.
Let’s give OKC a full 2.5 points for home court with one of the better crowds you’ll find in the league. That makes this a 6-point difference in power ratings on a neutral court. I have the Minnesota Timberwolves at about that spread against an average team.
Is the gap between the Thunder and Nuggets really as wide as the Wolves and an average team? I mean, maybe. The Thunder are really darn good. But I still think it’s a little heavy; I make it 5.5.
There’s also the trend of home favorites coming off a road win in the season opener (Thunder) going 29-47-1 (38%) since 2003, including 11-15-1 in the last 10 years and 6-9-1 since the Bubble, via KillerSports.com.
Denver went 3-1 ATS against OKC last year in three real matchups and one late-season fake one. They have hung around, despite Aaron Gordon only playing in one of those games (though OKC was missing a bunch of guys too).
Denver can score against OKC; they just can’t get stops, and that’s not likely to change. I lean toward the over, but not enough to want to get involved given the risk that the Nuggets slow the game down, which they should.
Ultimately, I think the Thunder should only be favored by 6 to 7.5 points in the market. Plus, I want to fade OKC coming off a huge, emotional win against the Spurs.
Pick: Nuggets +8.5 (-115)
Spencer Jones Over 0.5 Three-Pointers Made (-112)
Spencer Jones is likely on a minutes limit coming off a hamstring injury. He missed all the preseason games, so rust is expected.
But look, he’s a great shooter with a horrible-looking shot, and the Nuggets specifically schemed him to space the floor on the weak side against OKC’s double-teams on Nikola Jokic last season.
He’ll get looks, and he’s a good shooter. With such short juice just to get one three to drop, I think it’s worth a play despite the minute restriction and rust risks.
Pick: Spencer Jones Over 0.5 Three-Pointers Made (-112)
DeMar DeRozan Over 12.5 Points (-115)
I’m low on DeMar DeRozan’s overall value-add to the Nuggets. He’s a terrible defender and a mid-range shooter for a team that’s already the most efficient offense in the league.
So, what does he actually do? Well, in this specific matchup, what he does is incredibly valuable.
Here’s what DeRozan brings:
- He scores on tough shots in areas the Thunder will actually allow shots because they are inherently low-volume looks. He shot 50% or better in two of his three matchups against the Thunder last season.
- He doesn’t turn the ball over, which is crucial against an OKC team that is one of the best at forcing turnovers in the league.
- He draws fouls, which slows the game down and allows Denver to set up its defense.
Quite frankly, Denver's best hope of scoring during bench minutes is to just give the ball to DeRozan.
This is a great spot for him, and I expect him to go over this total even if he plays fewer minutes coming off the bench.
Pick: DeMar DeRozan Over 12.5 Points (-115)
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