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After an eventful slate last night, we're treated to two NBA powerhouse matchups tonight and the prop market is full of value waiting to be exploited.
Our Action Network staff has combed through the matchups, rotations, and defensive schemes to find the best angles on the board.
Continue below for our NBA player prop picks and predictions for Thursday, October 22.
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NBA Player Props for Thursday, October 22
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7:00 p.m. | |
| 7:00 p.m. | |
| 9:30 p.m. | |
| 9:30 p.m. |
Cavaliers vs. 76ers Player Prop: Joel Embiid Rebounds
Joel Embiid Over 7.5 Rebounds (-125)
This play heavily leans into Embiid's historical dominance on the glass against this specific opponent.
Even if Jarrett Allen ends up playing through his questionable tag, the history of Embiid going up against Allen is incredibly telling. Across 18 career head-to-head matchups against Allen, Embiid averages a massive 13.5 boards per game.
Right now, in this current iteration of the Sixers' offense with LeBron James facilitating and Tyrese Maxey driving the scoring, Embiid is essentially operating as a highly-paid rebounder.
Philadelphia doesn't necessarily need him to force the issue offensively or do much else besides violently mop up the glass and clean up the misses from their perimeter shooters. I think he is an absolute lock for near double-digit rebounds every single night that he is on the floor.
Now, the "on the floor" part is always the biggest underlying concern with Joel Embiid, but assuming he plays his standard minutes, this line of 7.5 is just fundamentally too low.
What I loved about his performance in the opener was that he can give you a somewhat sloppy offensive game where his shot isn't falling, but he still secures 11 rebounds despite Andre Drummond playing heavy minutes and completely vacuuming up the glass early on.
Embiid is an ancillary offensive piece for them right now, but his rebounding volume remains an absolute constant. Whether Allen suits up or Cleveland is forced to deploy their undersized backup bigs, Embiid is going to completely dominate the interior rebounding margin.
I expect him to cruise past eight rebounds tonight and cash this ticket comfortably.
Pick: Joel Embiid Over 7.5 Rebounds (-125)
Cavaliers vs. 76ers Player Prop: LeBron James First Basket
LeBron James First Basket (+1100)
I am sprinkling on LeBron James to score the first basket of the game at +1100. I want to be completely transparent here: the first basket market is generally not my typical bag, and you should take this with a slight grain of salt, but the ceremonial narrative surrounding this specific spot is just too strong to ignore.
This is LeBron's very first home game in Philadelphia since joining the Sixers, and he happens to be going up against his former team, the Cleveland Cavaliers.
I can absolutely see a heavily scripted world where Philadelphia explicitly defers to him on the opening possession to try and get the home crowd incredibly involved right out of the gates and stick it to the Cavs.
LeBron has always possessed a massive flair for the dramatic throughout his career, and this is the exact type of corny, theatrical narrative crap that he absolutely lives for on a national stage. I can practically envision him getting an open-court dunk to give the Sixers an immediate 2-0 lead while the arena goes absolutely crazy.
Furthermore, from a pure tactical standpoint, if Jarrett Allen is ultimately ruled out with his injury, it becomes highly likely that Joel Embiid wins the opening tip-off for Philadelphia against Cleveland's smaller frontcourt.
Embiid doesn't jump out of the gym, but he will have the sheer size advantage to secure that first possession. I can easily see them running a set specifically designed to get LeBron a clean look at the rim before the defense even settles in.
Again, this is a purely narrative-driven, fun pizza-money bet on a tiny slate, but taking a small shot on LeBron to immediately assert his presence in his new home arena at +850 presents a perfectly logical early cash opportunity.
Pick: LeBron James First Basket (+1100)
Nuggets vs. Thunder Player Prop: Nikola Jokic Points, Rebounds & Assists
Nikola Jokic Over 49.5 Points, Rebounds, & Assists (-100)
When you are dealing with a brutal two-game slate and you are searching for a reliable play, sometimes you just have to press the Nikola Jokic button and not overthink the process.
I am taking Jokic to go over 49.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (PRA) tonight.
Honestly, this is a far better number to attack than messing with his standard triple-double odds. My biggest overarching concern with this current iteration of the Denver Nuggets is their severe lack of depth. I am genuinely worried about whether Jokic actually has enough reliable help around him right now.
If the secondary scorers aren't producing, he is going to have to go out there and manually get 35 points and 16 rebounds just to keep them highly competitive. This play is also heavily matchup-based, since the Oklahoma City Thunder are elite at making you incredibly uncomfortable and forcing you to do things you don't necessarily want to do.
Historically, the way the Thunder defend Jokic—often putting pesky guards like Alex Caruso on him to disrupt his rhythm—forces him to operate much more as a pure scorer rather than a primary facilitator.
Jokic inherently prefers to get others involved and would much rather rack up 14 assists than score 40 points, but OKC simply won't allow those easy passing lanes to exist. If he has to relentlessly attack the basket and post a monstrous 36-15-8 stat line because of how they are defending him, then that is exactly what he will do.
Last season, his PRA average against Oklahoma City was precisely 49, and that included one very bad game that dragged the overall average down significantly. In the other two matchups, he was absolutely spectacular individually.
Everyone is fully fresh to start the year, and I expect we get the absolute best, highest-usage version of Nikola Jokic tonight.
Pick: Nikola Jokic Over 49.5 Points, Rebounds, Assists (-100)
Nuggets vs. Thunder Player Prop: DeMar DeRozan Points
DeMar DeRozan Over 12.5 Points (-112)
By Matt Moore
I’m low on DeRozan’s value-add to the Nuggets. He’s a terrible defender and a mid-range shooter for a team that’s already the most efficient offense in the league. What does he do? Well, in this specific matchup, what he does is incredibly valuable.
Here’s what DeRozan does:
- He scores on tough shots in a space the Thunder will allow shots because they are inherently low volume; he shot 50% or better in two of his three matchups vs. the Thunder last season.
- He doesn’t turn the ball over when OKC is one of the best turnover-forcing teams in the league.
- He draws fouls, which slows the game down and allows Denver to set up its defense
Quite frankly, their best hope of scoring in the bench minutes is to just give the ball to DeRozan. This is a great spot for him and I expect him to go over this even if he plays fewer minutes coming off the bench.
