The Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder will face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 9:30 p.m. ET from Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The game will broadcast live on ESPN.
The Thunder are 8.5-point favorites over the Nuggets on the spread, with the over/under set at 235.5 total points. The Thunder are -330 moneyline favorites to win outright, while the Nuggets are listed as +265 underdogs to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Nuggets vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks for Thursday, October 22.
Nuggets vs Thunder Prediction
- Nuggets vs Thunder picks:DeMar DeRozan Over 12.5 Points (-115) / Nuggets +8.5 (-110) / Spencer Jones Over 0.5 3PM (-112)
My Nuggets vs. Thunder best bets are on Denver to cover spread and two player prop picks. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
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Nuggets vs Thunder Odds
- Nuggets vs Thunder spread: Nuggets +8.5 (-110), Thunder -8.5 (-110)
- Nuggets vs Thunder over/under: 235.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Nuggets vs Thunder moneyline: Nuggets +265, Thunder -330
Nuggets vs Thunder NBA Preview
I don’t want the moneyline; I don’t think they’ll win, but I think this is a heavy price. Let’s give OKC a full 2.5 points of home-court advantage, with one of the better crowds in the league.
That makes this a 6-point difference in power rating on neutral. I have the Minnesota Timberwolves at about that vs. an average team. Is the gap between the Thunder and Nuggets as wide as the Wolves and an average team?
I mean, maybe. The Thunder are really darn good.
Still, I think it’s a little heavy. I make it 5.5. There’s also the matter of the trend of home favorites coming off a road win in the season opener (Thunder) are 29-47-1 (38%) since 2003, including 11-15-1 in the last 10 years and 6-9-1 since the Bubble, via KillerSports.com.
Denver went 3-1 ATS against OKC with three real matchups and a late-season fake one. They have hung around, despite Aaron Gordon only playing in one of those games (and OKC was missing a bunch of guys too).
Denver can score against OKC; they just can’t get stops, and that’s not likely to change. I lean toward the over, but not enough to want to get involved with the risk that the Nuggets slow the game down, which they should.
Nuggets vs Thunder Picks, Betting Analysis
DeMar DeRozan Over 11.5 Points
I’m low on DeMar DeRozan’s value-add to the Nuggets. He’s a terrible defender and a mid-range shooter for a team that already has the league's most efficient offense. What does he do? Well, in this specific matchup, what he does is incredibly valuable.
Here’s what DeRozan does:
- He scores on tough shots in a space the Thunder will allow shots because they are inherently low-volume; he shot 50% or better in two of his three matchups vs. the Thunder last season.
- He doesn’t turn the ball over, even against one of the league's best turnover-forcing teams.
- He draws fouls, which slows the game down and allows Denver to set up its defense.
Quite frankly, their best hope of scoring in the bench minutes is to just give the ball to DeRozan. This is a great spot for him, and I expect him to go over even with fewer minutes coming off the bench.
Nuggets +8.5
I do think the Thunder should only be between 6 and 7.5 points better than Denver in the market, and I want to fade OKC coming off the big emotional win vs. the Spurs, which kept them from a chance at repeating the title last season.
Spencer Jones Over 0.5 Three-Pointers Made
Spencer Jones is likely on a minutes limit coming off a hamstring injury, and he missed all the preseason games, so rust is likely.
But look, he’s a great shooter with a horrible-looking shot, and the Nuggets specifically schemed him to space the floor weakside against OKC’s doubles of Nikola Jokic last season. He’ll get looks and is a good shooter.
With such a short juice to just get one three, somehow, someway, I think it’s worth a play despite the minute and rust risks.
Nuggets vs Thunder Best Bets
DeMar DeRozan Over 12.5 Points
