Clippers vs. Thunder Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Will OKC Continue Historic Pace as Underdogs?
Zach Beeker/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Chris Paul #3 of the Oklahoma City Thunder
- The updated odds in Tuesday's Clippers vs. Thunder matchup make the Clips a 5-point road favorite in Oklahoma City with the over/under set at 227.5.
- The Thunder have out-paced expectations both in the standings and against the spread all season.
- Can they continue that trend tonight? Our crew previews the matchup including their picks below.
Clippers at Thunder Picks, Betting Odds & Predictions
- Spread: Clippers -5
- Over/Under: 227.5
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: NBA League Pass
If you’ve done nothing but blindly bet the Thunder this year, you’re likely Scrooge McDuck-ing it right now in a pile of cash.
Will they continue to cover at a high rate or will the Clippers flex their full-strength muscles tonight? Our experts break it down.
Betting Trend to Know
The Thunder have been the most undervalued team in the betting market this season, going an NBA-best 38-22 ATS. The most profitable spot to back them has been as underdogs: They’ve gone an astounding 22-9 ATS in that spot.
The Clippers, though, are a profitable 27-21 ATS this season as favorites.
Moore: My Lean on Tonight’s Game
As long as you’re getting this inside two possessions to account for free throws made with a lead, I like the Clippers. They are frustratingly inconsistent but have been dominant with their squad fully healthy.
The Thunder have great guards, but they’re also smaller. Their backcourt is better than Denver’s, but think back to last Friday’s game and how the Clippers’ perimeter defense bullied and discombobulated Denver’s guards to throw the whole offense out of whack. The Thunder don’t have a big wing creator to give the ball to in order to initiate the offense.
Danilo Gallinari is a good weapon on the perimeter, but he’s more the guy who is opportunistic against certain situations than a guy who flat out takes over. The pick-and-roll game with Steven Adams is likely compromised by not only the thieving hands of Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and Patrick Beverley, but how the Clippers play the pick-and-roll, dropping under coverage.
Bear in mind you’re still betting on the Clippers to actually show up and give top effort, which is not something they do often, but with how much firepower they have and their defensive capability, the spread feels very doable.
John Ewing: Rest Favors the Thunder
The Thunder last played on Friday, while the Clippers are on a standard two-days rest. That extra time off not only gives players time to rest and recover, but creates an edge for gamblers.
Since 2005, NBA teams with four or more days between games have gone 984-971-28 (50%) against-the-spread (ATS) in the regular season according to Bet Labs. That’s nothing spectacular, but the results improve when we adjust for the time between games for opponents.
In that same span, when the opposing team has two days between games — standard in the NBA — the well-rested squad (four or more days between games) has gone 383-361-9 (52%) ATS.
When is extra rest the most beneficial? Late in the season, of course. The grind of the 82-game schedule begins to weigh on teams as the season progresses. When the calendar flips to January, it has been profitable to wager on teams with extra rest.
The edge here is small, but extra rest can point bettors in the right direction. Plus, underdogs like the Thunder have been even more profitable, winning more than 55% of the time.
The PICK: Thunder +5
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.