Clippers vs. Warriors Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Does the Over/Under Have Value?
Photo credit: Jed Jacobsohn/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Stephen Curry
- The Los Angeles Clippers are double-digit road favorites in the bay area as they face the hobbled Golden State Warriors on Tuesday night.
- The Warriors have ruled out both Stephen Curry (illness) and Draymond Green (knee) in this matchup.
- Can the scrappy Warriors compete again without their stars? Bryan Mears gives his analysis and picks below.
Editors note: Stephen Curry has officially been ruled out of Tuesday’s game
What looked like a potential marquee matchup before the season is now a double-digit affair due to the Warriors’ injuries and trades. Stephen Curry is questionable after missing Saturday’s game, and he’ll obviously swing the line either way when his status is reported.
What’s his value to the spread and over/under? Let’s break it down.
Clippers at Warriors Picks, Betting Odds & Predictions
- Spread: Clippers -12.5
- Over/Under: 223.5
- Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: TNT
Betting Trend to Know
The Warriors have some trends worth noting — they’re 14-18-1 ATS at home; the under is 9-2 in their division games — but the sample might be pretty unrepresentative if Stephen Curry (questionable) suits up.
On the Clippers’ side, they’re 29-22 ATS as favorites this year, including 8-7 when laying double digits. The under is 23-16 in Clippers conference games and 7-3 within the division.
For the Warriors, Draymond Green and Kevon Looney will be out for this one. Stephen Curry missed Saturday’s game with an illness, along with practice on Sunday. He’s currently questionable to suit up.
The Warriors are already thin, even if Curry does go. They’re likely to start Juan Toscano-Anderson, a 26-year-old wing who went undrafted in 2015 and has played overseas and the G-League prior to getting a shot with the Warriors this season.
On the Clippers’ side, Lou Williams has been ruled out with a calf injury. Otherwise, they’re fully healthy right now. They don’t play again until Friday, so it seems unlikely that they would rest any players, although it’s always a possibility, especially if Curry doesn’t play and this game seems like an easy win.
So far, the biggest move on this game has been the over/under, which has moved up two full points to 228.5 after opening at 226.5. We tracked a steam move on that 226.5 number, which helped contribute to the movement.
The public seems to be on the same side: The over is getting 63% of the bets and a whopping 95% of the money.
We’ve also tracked a steam move on the Clippers at -11, which has pushed this number up to -11.5. The public is on the Clippers, who are getting 64% of the bets, but the majority of money bet on the spread has actually come in on the Warriors (52%).
How I’m Handicapping This Game
As I wrote last week in Steph’s return, I think a lot of people focus on on/off differential numbers for players and narrow down too much on offensive and defensive efficiency. That’s important, no doubt, but there’s another key element of player value that I think is even more important and pretty underrated: how players affect pace.
Curry has been one of the most important players to his team’s pace during his career, and that was with several Hall-of-Famers playing alongside him.
With this hodgepodge group?
Yeah, I think the Warriors will definitely play his style. We don’t have a whole lot of data this year, but with Steph on the floor the Warriors have gotten out in transition 2.2% more often — the 92nd percentile of players this year. Last year, he increased the Warriors’ pace by 4.0% — one of the highest marks in the entire league, which fits his career marks.
So with Steph, it’s not just an offensive efficiency boost — and there definitely will be given he’s Stephen Curry and the world’s best shooter — but it’s also many more possessions. And those possessions tend to be some of the highest value ones in the game — with scrambling defenses and more open shots.
Given Steph’s importance to the offense (and likely a neutral impact defensively), his status I think swings this over/under by many points. The question, though, is regarding where the line sits now.
Based on the total now of 228.5, it seems like books are guessing he’ll play. It’s probably a point or two low and will increase if he’s ruled in, but I think it moves dramatically if he’s ruled out, especially given the Clippers’ amazing defense of late now that they’re healthy.
It’s a tough game to handicap for that reason, plus the motivation angle. The Clippers are way more talented than the Warriors, but how much are they going to get up for a random Tuesday night game in which they should roll? That gives this game quite a bit of uncertainty.
Still, I think the best bet is to take the under if Curry is ruled out. If he’s ruled in, there’s probably a bit of value left on the over, but I would hold off if it moves past 230 before you’re able to grab it.
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.