The initial wave of Vegas action is officially behind us, and now the floodgates are wide open. Welcome to Day 2 of the Las Vegas Summer League, where we will shift our focus to a loaded 8-game Friday slate.
Today's basketball marathon officially tips off at 4:00 p.m. ET and will run continuously all the way through the final buzzer of the 11:00 p.m. ET late-night window.
The board is fresh, the betting odds are mostly based on speculation, and there are market inefficiencies waiting to be exploited. Let's get into my NBA Summer League picks and predictions for Friday, July 10.
NBA Summer League Predictions for Friday, July 10
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 4:00 p.m. | |
  | 8:00 p.m. | |
  | 10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Bucks vs. Heat Moneyline Pick
The market is installing the Milwaukee Bucks as slight favorites in this game, but a look at the recent data suggests the wrong team might be favored here.
During their California Classic stretch, the Miami Heat looked like a more cohesive unit, putting up a 2-1 record with a healthy +3.0 average point differential and scoring 89.7 points per game on 44.0% shooting.
Meanwhile, the Bucks stumbled through their initial outings with a 1-2 record, yielding a negative -4.0 point differential on a mediocre 42.5% team field goal clip.
The main differentiators in this matchup are backcourt experience and ball security. Miami is deploying a competent guard rotation featuring Jahmir Young and Trevor Keels alongside high-floor rookies Ryan Conwell and Tre Donaldson.
Conwell was great in his California Classic games, averaging 21.0 points in 30.7 minutes of action, while Young chipped in 17.5 points per game on 50.0% shooting. Donaldson ran point smoothly, logging 4.0 assists per game, while Vladislav Goldin anchored the interior with 10.0 points, 6.5 rebounds, and a +5 net rating.
Milwaukee’s roster leans on younger, theoretical prospects who showed some warning signs early. Bogoljub Markovic finished with a -2 net rating in California Classic play, while Brayden Burries struggled to a team-worst -10 in his lone appearance.
Miami's guards should be able to protect the ball, exploit Milwaukee’s unorganized half-court sets, and win this game outright.
Pick: Heat Moneyline (+110)
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Bulls vs. Grizzlies Spread Prediction
Laying a 5.5-point cushion against a team making its summer debut might feel like a bit of a dart-throw, but the Memphis Grizzlies are simply operating at a different speed than most of the teams in Vegas right now.
During their Salt Lake City run, the Grizzlies were an offensive powerhouse, averaging 97.7 points per game while shredding perimeter defenses to the tune of a tournament-high 38.2% from three-point land and sustaining a strong +4.7 average point differential.
The core Memphis group—anchored by Cameron Boozer, Javon Small, and Olivier-Maxence Prosper—possesses elite game-speed conditioning and on-court chemistry for a summer league team.
Prosper averaged 16.5 points with a tournament-best +18 net rating, while Boozer averaged 16.5 points on an efficient 65.0% from the field and 62.5% from deep. Small ran the offense masterfully, logging 12.5 points and a tournament-high 7.5 assists against only 2.5 turnovers per game.
The Chicago Bulls are stepping onto the floor for the first time this summer. While their Vegas roster brings immense high-lottery intrigue with No. 4 selection Caleb Wilson, No. 12 pick Noa Essengue, and rookie playmaker Boo Buie, first games are notoriously chaotic.
Chicago's young frontcourt will face some defensive friction trying to communicate through screening actions against a synchronized Memphis pick-and-roll engine.
Expect the Grizzlies' game-speed advantage to generate a high volume of live-ball turnovers early, allowing them to drop the hammer and pull away comfortably down the stretch.
Pick: Grizzlies -5.5 (-110)
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Thunder vs. Lakers ATS Pick
To put it bluntly, the Thunder were an absolute disaster during their Salt Lake City stretch. OKC finished a miserable 0-3 while surrendering a -25.3 average point differential, completely cratering on offense to a tournament-low 73.3 points per game on a frosty 36.7% from the floor and 25.3% from deep.
OKC's primary options have buried them under a mountain of empty possessions. Bennett Stirtz is saddled with a team-worst -20 net rating on 35.0% shooting, while Otega Oweh sits at -11. Even worse for their half-court shape, center Aday Mara has been neutralized by defensive pressure, averaging 10.0 points but coughing up 4.0 turnovers per game for a -12 rating.
The Lakers, on the other hand, established clear competitive parameters in the California Classic, manufacturing a 2-1 record while averaging 84.3 points per game. Their roster features a premier, elite volume scorer in Cameron Carr who can single-handedly break games wide open when half-court sets stagnate.
Carr averaged 16.7 points on 40.9% from beyond the arc. His rim-pressuring gravity should allow him continuously puncture a vulnerable Thunder defense that repeatedly gave up massive transition runs last week.
Let's trust the Lakers to handle business tonight.
Pick: Lakers -1.5 (-105)
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