Heat vs. Knicks Odds, Expert Pick, Game 5 Prediction | NBA Playoffs Betting Preview (May 10)

Heat vs. Knicks Odds, Expert Pick, Game 5 Prediction | NBA Playoffs Betting Preview (May 10) article feature image
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Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Bam Adebayo #13 of the Miami Heat dunks against the New York Knicks during the Eastern Conference semifinals of the 2023 NBA Playoffs.

  • The New York Knicks are on the brink of elimination ahead of their Game 5 matchup with the Miami Heat Wednesday.
  • The Knicks are home favorites (spread -3.5) despite being down 3-1, but Tyler Schmidt sees value on the road team.
  • He breaks down the matchup and gives his betting prediction in the Heat vs. Knicks preview.

Heat vs. Knicks Odds

Heat Odds+4
Knicks Odds-4
Over/Under209.5
Time7:30 p.m. ET
TVTNT
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Facing elimination the New YorkKnicks return to Madison Square Garden where they have won three of their four playoff games this postseason. The story of this series has been the Knicks' lack of offense as they are averaging just under 100 points per game through the first four games. Shooting 43.6% from the field and 28.2% from behind the arc will not win many games.

Despite being up 3-1 in the series, the Miami Heat offense hasn't been that good either averaging 106.8 points per game. Jimmy Butler has yet to crack 30 points as he continues to deal with an injured ankle. Even though the Heat have leeway, don't count them out in Game 5. They had a 3-1 lead against the Milwaukee Bucks in Round 1 and came from behind to win that series on the road.

The Heat have covered the spread in each of their last seven games — a better's dream — but can they do it once more in Game 5 to close the series? Let's take a look at the odds and matchup in the Heat vs Knicks betting preview.

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Miami Heat

Butler has been one of the league's best playoff performers as he is averaging 33.5 points per game, which ranks third in the league behind Devin Booker and Kawhi Leonard. Butler is shooting an absurd 56.1% from the field as he has carried this Heat team to one win away from another Eastern Conference finals appearance. They have a 7-2 playoff record, but most impressive is they are doing all of this without two scoring guards — Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo.

Every game that Butler has played in this series, the Heat have won. They almost won Game 2 with Butler sitting losing before a late Knicks flurry. Looking at the Heat roster, it is shocking to see them up 3-1 even if the Knicks are not playing that well. They have seven undrafted players with five of them getting significant minutes.

Being the underdog has been a familiar spot for the Heat as they have won four of their last five games as underdogs. Covering the spread and winning as underdogs, it should not be a surprise that the Heat are the public favorite — 65% of the bets and 77% of the money are on the Heat at the time of writing. They have also won the first half in five of their last six games against the Knicks.

After having a few rough games against the Bucks, Bam Adebayo has had a great series against the Knicks. He is averaging a double-double with 17.8 points and 10.3 rebounds per game while shooting 53.7% from the field. Being basically the only Heat's center, Adebayo has a lot on his plate going against the large Knicks frontcourt. Adebayo was voted to the NBA's All-Defensive second team and his defense has been on display the entire playoffs thus far.

Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, Caleb Martin, Duncan Robinson and Kyle Lowry have all had their fair share of big playoff games and provide great support for Butler and Adebayo. The chance to close out this series and potentially get a few rest days to wait on the Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers series to end has to be appealing. The Heat's recipe for success has been simple: Dominate defensively and do enough offensively. Even as underdogs, they have a great chance to close out this series tonight.


New York Knicks

After beating the Cleveland Cavaliers 4-1 in the first round, the Knicks have gone stagnant. Their backs are against the wall, but at least they will have the rowdy Madison Square Garden fans behind them. They have failed to cover the spread in each game of this series, so winning by more than four points feels like a big ask given how they have played recently.

The injury bug has bit the Knicks as well with Immanuel Quickley doubtful to play with an ankle injury. He was forced to miss Game 4 and the Sixth Man of the Year runner-up is a big loss for the Knicks. It will put more pressure on the bench to provide scoring, even though head coach Tom Thibodeau would rather play all his starters 40 minutes.

Julius Randle has weathered the ankle injury that kept him limited at the end of the first round and made him miss Game 1 of this series. Since his return, Randle is averaging a double-double with 18.3 points and 11.7 rebounds per game against the Heat. The negative is Randle is only shooting 43.5% from the field and 22.2% from behind the arc against the Heat's elite defense. This has proven to be a a tough matchup for the inefficient Randle.

Jalen Brunson has also struggled shooting the ball in this series, but is still averaging a team-high 26.8 points per game. He also has contributed in the peripheral department with seven assists and five rebounds per game. In the Knicks last home game, he made 6 of 10 from downtown scoring 30 points with several buckets down the stretch.

The Knicks are the only remaining team left in the playoffs that is averaging less than 100 points per game. As a team they are having a tough time shooting the ball as their lineup is filled with inefficient scorers. Add RJ Barrett to the list off players who has been inconsistent and doesn't provide much besides his scoring. Defense has been their calling card, but at some point you have to put the ball in the hole. We'll see if they have enough offense to force a Game 6.

Heat-Knicks Pick

Eight of the Heat's last nine games as underdogs have gone over the total points line. 72% of bets are on the over, but that is so hard to trust given both the Knicks and Heat's offensive struggles. Instead, we're going to back the Heat at +4 and a sprinkle on the moneyline at +145. For what it's worth, I also love the Heat to win the first half at +135. A lot of pressure will be on the Knicks to extend the series and the Heat have already closed out one series on the road.

We will side with the public and take the Heat to extend their heroic playoff run by clinching a spot into the Eastern Conference Title game. This game will be close throughout so even if it comes down to the wire, the Heat will have a great chance to cover since this is a four-point spread.

I would bet this down to +2.5 tonight. Keep an eye on Butler's status, but it is hard to see him not playing a close-out game. Take the Heat in every way that you can in this spot.

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