The second round of the NBA playoffs resumes with a pair of critical Game 4s this Monday. Our staff of betting experts dug into the latest NBA odds and identified four best bets for today's games, including picks for Pistons vs. Cavaliers and Thunder vs. Lakers.
Let's dive into our NBA picks, predictions, and best bets for Monday, May 11.
NBA Picks, Predictions, Best Bets for Monday, May 11
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 10:30 p.m. | |
| 8 p.m. | |
| 10:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Player Prop Bet
By Joe Dellera
I’m grabbing Donovan Mitchell Over 31.5 Points and Rebounds (PR) in Game 4 between Cleveland and Detroit tonight. I have been riding his points prop the last couple of games, but adding the boards here feels like a reasonable pivot.
Mitchell was flying all over the place last game. He pulled down 10 rebounds on 17 chances—that is an excellent conversion rate for a guard. In this series alone, we’ve seen his rebounding totals go from four to six to 10. He’s playing with a ton of energy right now.
When you look at his full season history against Detroit, Mitchell is averaging 36.2 PR against the Pistons this year (30.8 points, 5.4 rebounds per game). He’s been incredibly successful in this specific matchup, and the way Detroit is defending in this series helps us. The Pistons seem content to stay on the rest of the Cavs' shooters and just say, "Alright, if Donovan goes off, he goes off."
My only real gripe is that the Cavs won’t play him more than 40 minutes. But even with a regular-season rotation, Mitchell is hitting his ceiling. He’s the engine for Cleveland, the volume is there, and I’m comfortable banking on the consistency in Game 4.
Pick: Donovan Mitchell Over 31.5 Points & Rebounds (-112)
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Thunder vs. Lakers First Half Spread Pick
By Jim Turvey
I'm leaning into a historical trend here. Look, I don’t necessarily have the faith in the Lakers to pull this out over the full 48 minutes—we’ve already seen that movie three times now—but in the first half, these teams tend to use every bullet they have in the chamber.
The data on home underdogs facing a sweep is staggering: the historical trend is 26-7 straight up and 17-1-1 ATS in the first half for teams in this exact spot.
We saw the "bad" version of this with the Sixers yesterday where they just rolled over and died instantly in Game 4 against the Knicks, but that was an outlier. Much more often, the pride kicks in and you see a real fight for at least 24 minutes before the reality of the talent gap sets in.
The Lakers have been hanging around for the early parts of games in this series. They only have a minus-five point differential across the three first halves so far. They aren't getting blown out of the gym from the jump; it’s usually that inevitable OKC avalanche in the third or fourth quarter that buries them.
I also think Oklahoma City is content with putting the car in neutral for a bit, not necessarily looking to embarrass them in the first twenty minutes, knowing they can just pull away late.
I’ll take the Lakers to keep it close early before the wheels inevitably come off.
Pick: Lakers First Half Spread +5.5 (-110)
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Pistons vs. Cavaliers Spread Prediction
By Jim Turvey
I’m going to play the Cavaliers -3.5 here, and the trends back this up. Historically, teams in a 2-1 or 2-2 series playing at home as a favorite hit at a 57% rate. They tend to get home in these spots, and while that’s especially true in the first half, I like the full-game cover for Game 4.
I just think this series is destined to go long. The first couple of games were really about Cleveland getting acclimated to how Detroit plays.
For the Pistons, there was almost this sense of relief early on—like, "Oh, thank God we can breathe," because they weren't dealing with an Orlando team trying to suffocate them defensively.
Game 2 was a total mess with bad performances all over the place for Cleveland, but you’re going to have those nights sometimes. Even looking at Game 3, it wasn’t exactly a definitive masterclass from the Cavs; Detroit just played poorly.
The Pistons are feeling pretty good right now, but I think Cleveland is the play today. I expect them to lock in, win the game, and cover -3.5 to even the series. I still think Detroit might take games five and six, but for right now, I'm taking the Cavs in Game 4 tonight.
Pick: Cavaliers -3.5 (-110)
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Thunder vs. Lakers Player Prop Bet
By Matt Moore
I’m sticking with what’s working, and right now, that is Rui Hachimura three-pointers.
Rui has been a postseason monster for several years running, but this specific matchup against the Thunder is a goldmine from beyond the arc for him. OKC’s defensive scheme is built on letting certain secondary shooters fire away while they swarm the stars. The Thunder have looked at Rui and decided, "It's fine, go ahead and shoot; we don’t trust you enough to actually hurt us."
The problem for the Thunder—and the opportunity for us—is that he's making a bunch of those shots. Look at his recent totals: 2, 3, 4, 1, 2, and then lately he’s put up 5, 3, 4, and 5.
Hachimura has cleared this 2.5 line in every single game of this series. He’s gone over in four straight games and six of his last eight overall.
The books simply aren't moving the line despite the overwhelming evidence that Rui is going to continue getting these high-quality looks.
Pick: Rui Hachimura Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (+120)
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